ODD Ballklubb 1-2 Lillestrom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lillestrom at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this ODD Ballklubb vs Lillestrom encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Lillestrom travel to Skagerak Arena to take on ODD Ballklubb. The game is scheduled for Sunday 17 July 2022, 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, ODD Ballklubb have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W L W W D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for ODD Ballklubb, so this record blends games from this season and last.
ODD Ballklubb's form when playing at home: 4W 0D 6L across 10 games at Skagerak Arena this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Lillestrom — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Lillestrom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Lillestrom have posted 4W 4D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Lillestrom's 2.00 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of ODD Ballklubb's 1.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for ODD Ballklubb, 2 for Lillestrom and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2021, ended 2–3 with Lillestrom winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
ODD Ballklubb in-play tendencies (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 96% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Lillestrom in-play tendencies (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — ODD Ballklubb 57% versus Lillestrom 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (ODD Ballklubb 61% | Lillestrom 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ODD Ballklubb 1.61 xG and Lillestrom 1.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ODD Ballklubb attack 0.994 / defence 1.203 | Lillestrom attack 1.178 / defence 1.019. League average goals — home 1.585 / away 1.389. Data: 44 ODD Ballklubb games / 44 Lillestrom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 32% | Draw 22% | Lillestrom 46%. Fair-value odds: ODD Ballklubb 3.12 | Draw 4.55 | Lillestrom 2.17. Lillestrom hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.57. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.57 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.61 / 1.97) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lillestrom are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lillestrom offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.57 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 69% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates corroborate: ODD Ballklubb 70% | Lillestrom 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ODD Ballklubb vs Lillestrom | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Skagerak Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Jul 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 32% | Draw 22% | Lillestrom 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 69% | xG ODD Ballklubb 1.61 / Lillestrom 1.97 • Poisson strength factors: ODD Ballklubb attack 0.994 / def 1.203 | Lillestrom attack 1.178 / def 1.019 | league avg home 1.585 / away 1.389 • Poisson stance: Lillestrom (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
ODD Ballklubb xG
Expected Goals
1.97
Lillestrom xG
69%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does ODD Ballklubb vs Lillestrom kick off?
ODD Ballklubb vs Lillestrom kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 17 July 2022 at Skagerak Arena.
What was the final score in ODD Ballklubb vs Lillestrom?
ODD Ballklubb 1 - 2 Lillestrom.
Where is ODD Ballklubb vs Lillestrom being played?
The match is being played at Skagerak Arena.
What competition is ODD Ballklubb vs Lillestrom part of?
ODD Ballklubb vs Lillestrom is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win ODD Ballklubb vs Lillestrom?
Our statistical model gives ODD Ballklubb a 32% chance of winning, Lillestrom a 46% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Lillestrom the favourite.
Will both teams score in ODD Ballklubb vs Lillestrom?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both ODD Ballklubb and Lillestrom will score (BTTS).
Will ODD Ballklubb vs Lillestrom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Lillestrom?
Record (2 meetings): ODD Ballklubb 0W | Draws 0 | Lillestrom 2W.
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Lillestrom in?
ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. Lillestrom (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates ODD Ballklubb's attack at 0.99x the league average against Lillestrom's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.61 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lillestrom's attack versus ODD Ballklubb's defence, projects 1.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lillestrom Win
32%
3.15
22%
4.59
46%
2.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
2 – 1
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
ODD Ballklubb xG
Total xG
3.57
1.97
Lillestrom xG
3.15
32%
Home win
4.59
22%
Draw
2.15
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.21
Clean Sheet
14%
7.16
20%
4.98
Win to Nil
4%
22.51
9%
10.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 8.9 | 8.7 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 7.1 | 7.0 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for ODD Ballklubb vs Lillestrom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are ODD Ballklubb and Lillestrom expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for ODD Ballklubb and 1.97 for Lillestrom, a combined total of 3.57.
How confident is the prediction model for ODD Ballklubb vs Lillestrom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 44 outings, ODD Ballklubb have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 14W 10D 20L record — W-L-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for ODD Ballklubb is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lillestrom's form line: 23W 10D 11L from 44 games, 1.80 PPG, last five D-W-L-W-L. The sample for Lillestrom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Lillestrom are the form team by 0.62 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against ODD Ballklubb.
Venue Form
On home soil, ODD Ballklubb have posted 1.27 PPG from 22 outings (8W 4D 10L).
On the road, Lillestrom have gone 9W 7D 6L from 22 away games — 1.55 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
ODD Ballklubb are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Lillestrom are on 1.73 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ODD Ballklubb
Blended
Lillestrom
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Lillestrom in coming into this match?
ODD Ballklubb have gone 14W 10D 20L in their last 44 games (1.18 PPG), while Lillestrom have gone 23W 10D 11L in their last 44 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ODD Ballklubb at home or Lillestrom away?
Lillestrom's away record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ODD Ballklubb at home: 1.27 PPG; Lillestrom away: 1.55 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 October 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Oct 2024, when Lillestrom won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
ODD Ballklubb's record when hosting Lillestrom specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
ODD Ballklubb
1
Draws
5
Lillestrom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Lillestrom?
From 8 meetings on record, ODD Ballklubb have won 2, Lillestrom have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did ODD Ballklubb and Lillestrom last play each other?
They last met on 27 October 2024, when Lillestrom 3-0 ODD Ballklubb.
Who has won more matches between ODD Ballklubb and Lillestrom?
Lillestrom have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
ODD Ballklubb are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 96% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Lillestrom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — ODD Ballklubb at 73%, Lillestrom at 82%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 77% for ODD Ballklubb and 77% for Lillestrom. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 59% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ODD Ballklubb home games / Lillestrom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when ODD Ballklubb play Lillestrom?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of ODD Ballklubb's games and 82% of Lillestrom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is ODD Ballklubb vs Lillestrom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 77% of ODD Ballklubb's matches and 77% of Lillestrom's.
Do ODD Ballklubb and Lillestrom tend to score early?
ODD Ballklubb have had a goal before half-time in 96% of their recent matches, Lillestrom in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lillestrom edge out ODD Ballklubb 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lillestrom beat ODD Ballklubb 1-2 at Skagerak Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ODD Ballklubb 1.61 xG and Lillestrom 1.97 xG, a combined 3.57. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ODD Ballklubb attack 0.99 / defence 1.20 against Lillestrom attack 1.18 / defence 1.02, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ODD Ballklubb 32% | Draw 22% | Lillestrom 46%, with Lillestrom to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ODD Ballklubb 61%, Lillestrom 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Lillestrom's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Lillestrom arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.18. That form edge translated into the three points. ODD Ballklubb (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.