Molde vs Valerenga – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Molde at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this Molde vs Valerenga fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 30 as Molde welcome Valerenga to Aker Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 28 November 2021 at 00:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Molde have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Molde, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Molde have posted 8W 1D 1L at Aker Stadion — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 3.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Molde are significantly better at Aker Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Valerenga stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Valerenga away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Molde at 2.00 PPG versus Valerenga's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Molde have won 0, Valerenga 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 19 Sep 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Molde trading profile (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
Valerenga trading profile (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Molde 61% and Valerenga 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Molde 81% | Valerenga 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Molde 2.23 xG and Valerenga 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Molde attack 1.451 / defence 0.952 | Valerenga attack 0.909 / defence 0.851. League average goals — home 1.803 / away 1.224. Molde carry an above-average attack strength of 1.451 — their λ of 2.23 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 57 Molde games / 58 Valerenga games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Molde 62% | Draw 24% | Valerenga 15%. Fair-value odds: Molde 1.61 | Draw 4.17 | Valerenga 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Molde (62%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.23 / 1.06) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Molde as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.29 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Molde 50% | Valerenga 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Molde vs Valerenga | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Aker Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Nov 2021, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Molde 62% | Draw 24% | Valerenga 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 60% | xG Molde 2.23 / Valerenga 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Molde attack 1.451 / def 0.952 | Valerenga attack 0.909 / def 0.851 | league avg home 1.803 / away 1.224 • Poisson stance: Molde (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.23
Molde xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Valerenga xG
60%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Molde vs Valerenga kick off?
Molde vs Valerenga kicked off at 00:00 on Sunday 28 November 2021 at Aker Stadion.
Where is Molde vs Valerenga being played?
The match is being played at Aker Stadion.
What competition is Molde vs Valerenga part of?
Molde vs Valerenga is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Molde vs Valerenga?
Our statistical model gives Molde a 62% chance of winning, Valerenga a 15% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Molde the favourite.
Will both teams score in Molde vs Valerenga?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Molde and Valerenga will score (BTTS).
Will Molde vs Valerenga have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Molde and Valerenga?
Record (3 meetings): Molde 0W | Draws 1 | Valerenga 2W.
What form are Molde and Valerenga in?
Molde (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. Valerenga (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Molde's attacking strength (1.45x league average) is weighed against Valerenga's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.23. The same calculation in reverse, Valerenga's attack versus Molde's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Molde Win
62%
1.62
24%
4.22
15%
6.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.3%
Home win
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.23
Molde xG
Total xG
3.29
1.06
Valerenga xG
1.62
62%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
6.80
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.65
40%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
11%
9.26
Win to Nil
21%
4.68
2%
62.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.3 | 8.8 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.8 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 7.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Molde vs Valerenga?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are Molde and Valerenga expected to score?
The model projects 2.23 expected goals for Molde and 1.06 for Valerenga, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Molde vs Valerenga?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 57 outings, Molde have picked up 2.02 PPG on a 36W 7D 14L record — W-L-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Molde is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Valerenga's form line: 24W 22D 11L from 57 games, 1.65 PPG, last five L-W-D-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Molde on 2.02 PPG, Valerenga on 1.65. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Molde have posted 2.43 PPG from 28 outings (22W 2D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 2.02 PPG overall — Molde are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Valerenga have gone 8W 10D 10L from 28 away games — 1.21 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.65 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Valerenga's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Molde come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Molde are averaging 2.47 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Valerenga are on 1.63 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Molde have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Valerenga in 70%.
Last 57 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Molde
Blended
Valerenga
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Molde and Valerenga in coming into this match?
Molde have gone 36W 7D 14L in their last 57 games (2.02 PPG), while Valerenga have gone 24W 22D 11L in their last 57 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Molde at home or Valerenga away?
Molde's home record (2.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Molde at home: 2.43 PPG; Valerenga away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Molde and Valerenga runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Molde have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Jul 2023, when Molde won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Molde's record when hosting Valerenga specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Molde
2
Draws
2
Valerenga
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Molde and Valerenga?
From 10 meetings on record, Molde have won 6, Valerenga have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Molde and Valerenga last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Molde 5-1 Valerenga.
Who has won more matches between Molde and Valerenga?
Molde have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Molde are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 68% of the time.
Valerenga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Molde 57%, Valerenga 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 86% for Molde and 54% for Valerenga. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 61% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Molde keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Molde home games / Valerenga away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Molde play Valerenga?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Molde's games and 64% of Valerenga's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Molde vs Valerenga usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 86% of Molde's matches and 54% of Valerenga's.
Do Molde and Valerenga tend to score early?
Molde have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Valerenga in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Molde's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Aker Stadion, Regular Season - 30, as Molde and Valerenga drew 0-0 in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Molde 2.23 xG and Valerenga 1.06 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Molde fell 2.2 short of their projected output. Valerenga landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Molde attack 1.45 / defence 0.95 against Valerenga attack 0.91 / defence 0.85, drawn from 57/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Molde 62% | Draw 24% | Valerenga 15%, with Molde to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Molde 81%, Valerenga 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Molde's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Valerenga's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Molde 2.02 PPG, Valerenga 1.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Molde (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Valerenga (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.