Molde 2-1 Mjondalen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Molde at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Molde vs Mjondalen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Molde host Mjondalen at Aker Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 5 July 2020 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Molde stand at 4W 1D 0L from 5 Eliteserien matches — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Molde have played only a handful of Eliteserien games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Mjondalen have recorded 2W 2D 1L from 5 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 2 clean sheets in 5 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Mjondalen have played only a handful of Eliteserien games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Mjondalen's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 0L across 3 road games this term (1.67 PPG). Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Molde have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (2.60 vs 1.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Molde register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Mjondalen in 67% (using overall form) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Molde in-play and half-time data (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games; Over 3.5 in 80%.
Mjondalen in-play and half-time data (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Molde 80% and Mjondalen 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Molde 80% | Mjondalen 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Molde 1.38 xG and Mjondalen 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Molde attack 1.188 / defence 0.918 | Mjondalen attack 0.825 / defence 0.912. League average goals — home 1.270 / away 1.530. Data: 5 Molde games / 5 Mjondalen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Molde 42% | Draw 27% | Mjondalen 32%. Fair-value odds: Molde 2.38 | Draw 3.70 | Mjondalen 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Molde at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Molde offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Molde 80% | Mjondalen 67% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Molde vs Mjondalen | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Aker Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Jul 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Molde 42% | Draw 27% | Mjondalen 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Molde 1.38 / Mjondalen 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Molde attack 1.188 / def 0.918 | Mjondalen attack 0.825 / def 0.912 | league avg home 1.270 / away 1.530 • Poisson stance: Molde (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Molde xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Mjondalen xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Molde vs Mjondalen kick off?
Molde vs Mjondalen kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 5 July 2020 at Aker Stadion.
What was the final score in Molde vs Mjondalen?
Molde 2 - 1 Mjondalen.
Where is Molde vs Mjondalen being played?
The match is being played at Aker Stadion.
What competition is Molde vs Mjondalen part of?
Molde vs Mjondalen is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Molde vs Mjondalen?
Our statistical model gives Molde a 42% chance of winning, Mjondalen a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Molde the favourite.
Will both teams score in Molde vs Mjondalen?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Molde and Mjondalen will score (BTTS).
Will Molde vs Mjondalen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Molde and Mjondalen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Molde and Mjondalen in?
Molde (all comps): 4W-1D-0L in 5 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Mjondalen (all comps): 2W-2D-1L in 5 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Molde's attacking strength (1.19x league average) is weighed against Mjondalen's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. The same calculation in reverse, Mjondalen's attack versus Molde's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Molde Win
42%
2.39
27%
3.76
32%
3.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Molde xG
Total xG
2.54
1.16
Mjondalen xG
2.39
42%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
3.17
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
25%
3.96
Win to Nil
13%
7.63
8%
12.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 9.2 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.6 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.7 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Molde vs Mjondalen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Molde and Mjondalen expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Molde and 1.16 for Mjondalen, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Molde vs Mjondalen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 5 outings, Molde have picked up 2.60 PPG on a 4W 1D 0L record — W-W-W-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Molde, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Mjondalen's form line: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games, 1.60 PPG, last five D-W-D-L-W. It's still early in the season for Mjondalen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Molde are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Mjondalen.
Goals in Recent Form
Molde are averaging 2.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Mjondalen are on 1.20 scored and 0.80 conceded. Molde's scoring rate against Mjondalen's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Molde have seen both teams score in 80% of their recent games; Mjondalen in 60%.
Defensively: Mjondalen in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Molde
Early Season
Mjondalen
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Molde and Mjondalen in coming into this match?
Molde have gone 4W 1D 0L in their last 5 games (2.60 PPG), while Mjondalen have gone 2W 2D 1L in their last 5 (1.60 PPG).
Have Molde or Mjondalen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Molde have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Mjondalen in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 September 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Sep 2021, when Molde won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Molde's record when hosting Mjondalen specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Molde
1
Draws
0
Mjondalen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Molde and Mjondalen?
From 4 meetings on record, Molde have won 3, Mjondalen have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Molde and Mjondalen last play each other?
They last met on 12 September 2021, when Molde 4-0 Mjondalen.
Who has won more matches between Molde and Mjondalen?
Molde have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Molde are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Mjondalen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Molde at 80%, Mjondalen at 60%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Molde and 40% for Mjondalen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 80% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Mjondalen in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Molde home games / Mjondalen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Molde play Mjondalen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Molde's games and 60% of Mjondalen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Molde vs Mjondalen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Molde's matches and 40% of Mjondalen's.
Do Molde and Mjondalen tend to score early?
Molde have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Mjondalen in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Molde edge out Mjondalen 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Molde beat Mjondalen 2-1 at Aker Stadion, Regular Season - 6, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Molde 1.38 xG and Mjondalen 1.16 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Molde attack 1.19 / defence 0.92 against Mjondalen attack 0.82 / defence 0.91, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Molde 42% | Draw 27% | Mjondalen 32%, with Molde to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Molde 80%, Mjondalen 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Molde's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.
Mjondalen's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Molde arrived the stronger side — 2.60 PPG against 1.60. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Mjondalen shipped 2 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.