Mjondalen vs Haugesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mjondalen at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mjondalen vs Haugesund fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Consto Arena plays host to Mjondalen versus Haugesund in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Wednesday 30 June 2021 at 01:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Mjondalen have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: D W L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Mjondalen's form when playing at home: 5W 0D 5L across 10 games at Consto Arena this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Haugesund (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: L D D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Haugesund have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Mjondalen, 0 for Haugesund and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Dec 2020, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Mjondalen half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Haugesund half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mjondalen 40% versus Haugesund 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjondalen 43% | Haugesund 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjondalen 1.14 xG and Haugesund 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjondalen attack 0.726 / defence 0.801 | Haugesund attack 0.822 / defence 0.942. League average goals — home 1.667 / away 1.179. Mjondalen's attack strength of 0.726 is below the league average — the 1.14 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 37 Mjondalen games / 37 Haugesund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mjondalen 43% | Draw 34% | Haugesund 23%. Fair-value odds: Mjondalen 2.33 | Draw 2.94 | Haugesund 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.92. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.92 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Mjondalen at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mjondalen if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.92 combined xG gives a 30% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. Form rates are neutral: Mjondalen 30% | Haugesund 80%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjondalen vs Haugesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Consto Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 30 Jun 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjondalen 43% | Draw 34% | Haugesund 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 38% | xG Mjondalen 1.14 / Haugesund 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Mjondalen attack 0.726 / def 0.801 | Haugesund attack 0.822 / def 0.942 | league avg home 1.667 / away 1.179 • Poisson stance: Mjondalen (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Mjondalen xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Haugesund xG
38%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjondalen vs Haugesund kick off?
Mjondalen vs Haugesund kicked off at 01:00 on Wednesday 30 June 2021 at Consto Arena.
Where is Mjondalen vs Haugesund being played?
The match is being played at Consto Arena.
What competition is Mjondalen vs Haugesund part of?
Mjondalen vs Haugesund is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Mjondalen vs Haugesund?
Our statistical model gives Mjondalen a 43% chance of winning, Haugesund a 23% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Mjondalen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjondalen vs Haugesund?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Mjondalen and Haugesund will score (BTTS).
Will Mjondalen vs Haugesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjondalen and Haugesund?
Record (2 meetings): Mjondalen 1W | Draws 1 | Haugesund 0W.
What form are Mjondalen and Haugesund in?
Mjondalen (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. Haugesund (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Mjondalen's attack at 0.73x the league average against Haugesund's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.14 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Haugesund's attack (0.82x) against Mjondalen's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 0.78.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (15.1%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjondalen Win
43%
2.35
34%
2.94
23%
4.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.7%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Mjondalen xG
Total xG
1.92
0.78
Haugesund xG
2.35
43%
Home win
2.94
34%
Draw
4.28
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.61
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
46%
2.17
32%
3.13
Win to Nil
20%
5.11
7%
13.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.7 | 11.4 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.8 | 13.0 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.6 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjondalen vs Haugesund?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.4%.
How many goals are Mjondalen and Haugesund expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Mjondalen and 0.78 for Haugesund, a combined total of 1.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjondalen vs Haugesund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Mjondalen come into this having played 30 games, going 9W 2D 19L for 0.97 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-W.
On the other side, Haugesund sit at 1.30 PPG from 30 outings (11W 6D 13L), a run that reads L-D-D-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.97 PPG for Mjondalen against 1.30 for Haugesund. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Mjondalen's home form reads 6W 0D 9L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Haugesund have taken 1.20 points per game from 15 outings (5W 3D 7L).
Attack vs Defence
Mjondalen are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Haugesund are on 1.30 scored and 1.70 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjondalen
Current Season
Haugesund
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjondalen and Haugesund in coming into this match?
Mjondalen have gone 9W 2D 19L in their last 30 games (0.97 PPG), while Haugesund have gone 11W 6D 13L in their last 30 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjondalen at home or Haugesund away?
Mjondalen's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjondalen at home: 1.20 PPG; Haugesund away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 October 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Haugesund won 7-0 on 17 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mjondalen have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Haugesund — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Mjondalen
1
Draws
1
Haugesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjondalen and Haugesund?
From 4 meetings on record, Mjondalen have won 2, Haugesund have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Mjondalen and Haugesund last play each other?
They last met on 17 October 2021, when Haugesund 7-0 Mjondalen.
Who has won more matches between Mjondalen and Haugesund?
Mjondalen have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Mjondalen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mjondalen 33%, Haugesund 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Mjondalen) and 60% (Haugesund).
On the defensive side: Mjondalen keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Mjondalen have failed to score in 33% of games; Haugesund in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjondalen home games / Haugesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjondalen play Haugesund?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Mjondalen's recent matches and 60% of Haugesund's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mjondalen vs Haugesund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Mjondalen's recent games and 60% of Haugesund's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mjondalen and Haugesund tend to score early?
Mjondalen have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Haugesund in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Mjondalen's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mjondalen and Haugesund finished level at 0-0 at Consto Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjondalen 1.14 xG and Haugesund 0.78 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Mjondalen fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjondalen attack 0.73 / defence 0.80 against Haugesund attack 0.82 / defence 0.94, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjondalen 43% | Draw 34% | Haugesund 23%, with Mjondalen to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjondalen 43%, Haugesund 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjondalen's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Haugesund's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mjondalen 0.97 PPG, Haugesund 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Mjondalen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Haugesund (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.