Mjondalen 1-0 Haugesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mjondalen at 36%, yet in-form Haugesund provide a compelling counter-argument — this Mjondalen vs Haugesund fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Consto Arena plays host to Mjondalen versus Haugesund in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Sunday 9 August 2020 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Mjondalen have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 1W 1D 8L. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Mjondalen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mjondalen's form when playing at home: 1W 0D 4L across 5 games at Consto Arena this term (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Haugesund (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: L L W D W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Haugesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Haugesund have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 3 away clean sheets from 5 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Haugesund arrive in superior form — a 1.10 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.40) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading
Mjondalen half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Haugesund half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mjondalen 50% versus Haugesund 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjondalen 50% | Haugesund 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjondalen 0.97 xG and Haugesund 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjondalen attack 0.707 / defence 1.194 | Haugesund attack 0.556 / defence 1.038. League average goals — home 1.325 / away 1.293. Mjondalen's attack strength of 0.707 is below the league average — the 0.97 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 12 Mjondalen games / 12 Haugesund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mjondalen 36% | Draw 34% | Haugesund 30%. Fair-value odds: Mjondalen 2.78 | Draw 2.94 | Haugesund 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.83. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.83 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Mjondalen at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Haugesund (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mjondalen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.83 combined xG gives a 28% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 37%. Form rates corroborate: Mjondalen 40% | Haugesund 20% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjondalen vs Haugesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Consto Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Aug 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjondalen 36% | Draw 34% | Haugesund 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 37% | xG Mjondalen 0.97 / Haugesund 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Mjondalen attack 0.707 / def 1.194 | Haugesund attack 0.556 / def 1.038 | league avg home 1.325 / away 1.293 • Poisson stance: Mjondalen (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Mjondalen xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Haugesund xG
37%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjondalen vs Haugesund kick off?
Mjondalen vs Haugesund kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 9 August 2020 at Consto Arena.
What was the final score in Mjondalen vs Haugesund?
Mjondalen 1 - 0 Haugesund.
Where is Mjondalen vs Haugesund being played?
The match is being played at Consto Arena.
What competition is Mjondalen vs Haugesund part of?
Mjondalen vs Haugesund is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Mjondalen vs Haugesund?
Our statistical model gives Mjondalen a 36% chance of winning, Haugesund a 30% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Mjondalen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjondalen vs Haugesund?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Mjondalen and Haugesund will score (BTTS).
Will Mjondalen vs Haugesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjondalen and Haugesund?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Mjondalen and Haugesund in?
Mjondalen (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Haugesund (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Mjondalen's attack at 0.71x the league average against Haugesund's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 0.97 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Haugesund's attack (0.56x) against Mjondalen's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjondalen Win
36%
2.76
34%
2.96
30%
3.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Mjondalen xG
Total xG
1.83
0.86
Haugesund xG
2.76
36%
Home win
2.96
34%
Draw
3.33
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.74
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
38%
2.65
Win to Nil
15%
6.52
11%
8.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.0 | 13.8 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.6 | 13.4 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjondalen vs Haugesund?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.7%.
How many goals are Mjondalen and Haugesund expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Mjondalen and 0.86 for Haugesund, a combined total of 1.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjondalen vs Haugesund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Mjondalen come into this having played 12 games, going 2W 2D 8L for 0.67 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Mjondalen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Haugesund sit at 1.25 PPG from 12 outings (4W 3D 5L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Haugesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Haugesund carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.58 PPG clear of Mjondalen — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Mjondalen's home form reads 1W 0D 4L across 5 games on their own ground, a 0.60 PPG return.
Away from home, Haugesund have taken 1.00 points per game from 5 outings (1W 2D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Haugesund come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Mjondalen are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Haugesund are on 0.83 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Defensively: Haugesund in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjondalen
Blended
Haugesund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjondalen and Haugesund in coming into this match?
Mjondalen have gone 2W 2D 8L in their last 12 games (0.67 PPG), while Haugesund have gone 4W 3D 5L in their last 12 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjondalen at home or Haugesund away?
Haugesund's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjondalen at home: 0.60 PPG; Haugesund away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Mjondalen or Haugesund been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mjondalen have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Haugesund in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 October 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Haugesund won 7-0 on 17 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mjondalen have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Haugesund — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Mjondalen
1
Draws
1
Haugesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjondalen and Haugesund?
From 4 meetings on record, Mjondalen have won 2, Haugesund have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Mjondalen and Haugesund last play each other?
They last met on 17 October 2021, when Haugesund 7-0 Mjondalen.
Who has won more matches between Mjondalen and Haugesund?
Mjondalen have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Mjondalen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Haugesund see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 40% (Mjondalen) and 20% (Haugesund) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 40% for Mjondalen and 20% for Haugesund.
On the defensive side: Haugesund in 60%; Mjondalen have failed to score in 40% of games; Haugesund in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjondalen home games / Haugesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjondalen play Haugesund?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Mjondalen's recent matches and 20% of Haugesund's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mjondalen vs Haugesund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Mjondalen's recent games and 20% of Haugesund's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mjondalen and Haugesund tend to score early?
Mjondalen have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Haugesund in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Mjondalen edge out Haugesund 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mjondalen beat Haugesund 1-0 at Consto Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjondalen 0.97 xG and Haugesund 0.86 xG, a combined 1.83. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Haugesund landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjondalen attack 0.71 / defence 1.19 against Haugesund attack 0.56 / defence 1.04, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjondalen 36% | Draw 34% | Haugesund 30%, with Mjondalen to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 55% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjondalen 50%, Haugesund 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjondalen's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Haugesund's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Haugesund arrived the stronger side — 1.25 PPG against 0.67. Form was overturned, with Mjondalen winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Mjondalen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.