Lillestrom vs Ham-Kam – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson model rates Ham-Kam at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lillestrom vs Ham-Kam fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Ham-Kam make the trip to to face Lillestrom in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 28. The match kicks off on Sunday 29 November 2026 at 16:00 UTC.

Form

Lillestrom (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lillestrom, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Lillestrom's home record at : 4W 0D 5L from 9 Eliteserien appearances (1.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Ham-Kam's overall Eliteserien record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Ham-Kam, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Ham-Kam's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Lillestrom, 1.00 for Ham-Kam — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Lillestrom have seen both teams score in 67% of their games, Ham-Kam in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H History

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 7 meetings: Lillestrom 2W, Ham-Kam 2W, 3D.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 25 May 2026, ended 0–2 with Ham-Kam winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Lillestrom half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

Ham-Kam half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lillestrom 44% versus Ham-Kam 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lillestrom 50% | Ham-Kam 72%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Lillestrom 1.46 xG and Ham-Kam 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lillestrom attack 0.813 / defence 1.352 | Ham-Kam attack 0.845 / defence 1.049. League average goals — home 1.712 / away 1.422. Data: 18 Lillestrom games / 48 Ham-Kam games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Lillestrom 34% | Draw 24% | Ham-Kam 42%. Fair-value odds: Lillestrom 2.94 | Draw 4.17 | Ham-Kam 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.46 / 1.63) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Ham-Kam are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ham-Kam if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.09 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lillestrom 67% | Ham-Kam 60% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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