Lillestrom 1-1 Ham-Kam – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Ham-Kam at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Lillestrom face Ham-Kam.

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Analysis

Ham-Kam make the trip to Åråsen Stadion to face Lillestrom in Eliteserien (matchday 5). The match kicks off on Sunday 28 April 2024 at 17:00 UK time.

Form

Lillestrom (all games): 3W 1D 6L across their last 10 — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

Lillestrom's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 1D 3L (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Lillestrom are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Ham-Kam's record over their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Ham-Kam's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Lillestrom, 1.10 for Ham-Kam — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H History

Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Lillestrom, 0 for Ham-Kam and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 30 Jul 2023, ended Lillestrom 3–1 Ham-Kam — a Lillestrom win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Lillestrom half-time and goal-timing data (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

Ham-Kam half-time and goal-timing data (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lillestrom 57% versus Ham-Kam 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lillestrom 60% | Ham-Kam 57%). Note also that Ham-Kam surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while Lillestrom recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Lillestrom 1.22 xG and Ham-Kam 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lillestrom attack 1.059 / defence 1.454 | Ham-Kam attack 0.690 / defence 0.997. League average goals — home 1.157 / away 1.390. Ham-Kam's attack rating of 0.690 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.39. Lillestrom's defence rating of 1.454 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Ham-Kam's projected output up. Data: built from Lillestrom's last 34 games and Ham-Kam's last 35.

Result probabilities: Lillestrom 33% | Draw 26% | Ham-Kam 41%. Fair-value odds: Lillestrom 3.04 | Draw 3.82 | Ham-Kam 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Ham-Kam are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ham-Kam if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.62 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 51% — low conviction — though recent form (Lillestrom's last 10 home games and Ham-Kam's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches point the other way.

Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lillestrom 50% (last 10 home games) | Ham-Kam 60% (last 10 away games).

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