Kristiansund BK 1-2 Stabaek – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kristiansund BK at 65%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kristiansund BK vs Stabaek fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Stabaek travel to Kristiansund Stadion to take on Kristiansund BK. The game is scheduled for Sunday 12 July 2020, 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Kristiansund BK — All Games: 2W 4D 0L from 6 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 1.67 points per game. Last five: W D W D D. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 83% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Kristiansund BK have played only a handful of Eliteserien games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Stabaek stand at 2W 2D 2L from 6 Eliteserien matches — 1.33 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.17 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 6 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Stabaek have played only a handful of Eliteserien games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Kristiansund BK 1.67 PPG, Stabaek 1.33 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Kristiansund BK in-play tendencies (6 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%.
Stabaek in-play tendencies (6 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kristiansund BK 83% versus Stabaek 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Kristiansund BK 83% | Stabaek 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kristiansund BK 2.92 xG and Stabaek 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kristiansund BK attack 1.575 / defence 1.176 | Stabaek attack 0.868 / defence 1.464. League average goals — home 1.268 / away 1.572. Kristiansund BK carry an above-average attack strength of 1.575 — their λ of 2.92 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Stabaek bring a strong defensive rating of 1.464 — this is suppressing Kristiansund BK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 6 Kristiansund BK games / 6 Stabaek games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kristiansund BK 65% | Draw 16% | Stabaek 19%. Fair-value odds: Kristiansund BK 1.54 | Draw 6.25 | Stabaek 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Kristiansund BK (65%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 83% | BTTS probability 76% | Total xG 4.53. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 83% — a total xG of 4.53 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 76% reflects that both xG figures (2.92 / 1.60) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Kristiansund BK at 65% — clear model lean.
Poisson projects 4.53 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 83% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 76%. Form rates corroborate: Kristiansund BK 83% | Stabaek 33% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kristiansund BK vs Stabaek | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Kristiansund Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Jul 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kristiansund BK 65% | Draw 16% | Stabaek 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 83% | BTTS 76% | xG Kristiansund BK 2.92 / Stabaek 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Kristiansund BK attack 1.575 / def 1.176 | Stabaek attack 0.868 / def 1.464 | league avg home 1.268 / away 1.572 • Poisson stance: Kristiansund BK (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.92
Kristiansund BK xG
Expected Goals
1.60
Stabaek xG
76%
BTTS
94%
Over 1.5
83%
Over 2.5
66%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kristiansund BK vs Stabaek kick off?
Kristiansund BK vs Stabaek kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 12 July 2020 at Kristiansund Stadion.
What was the final score in Kristiansund BK vs Stabaek?
Kristiansund BK 1 - 2 Stabaek.
Where is Kristiansund BK vs Stabaek being played?
The match is being played at Kristiansund Stadion.
What competition is Kristiansund BK vs Stabaek part of?
Kristiansund BK vs Stabaek is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Kristiansund BK vs Stabaek?
Our statistical model gives Kristiansund BK a 65% chance of winning, Stabaek a 19% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Kristiansund BK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kristiansund BK vs Stabaek?
Our model estimates a 76% probability that both Kristiansund BK and Stabaek will score (BTTS).
Will Kristiansund BK vs Stabaek have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 83%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kristiansund BK and Stabaek?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Kristiansund BK and Stabaek in?
Kristiansund BK (all comps): 2W-4D-0L in 6 | 1.67 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-W-D-D. Stabaek (all comps): 2W-2D-2L in 6 | 1.33 PPG | GF 1.17 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Kristiansund BK's attack rating (1.57) and Stabaek's defence rating (1.46), the model arrives at 2.92 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Stabaek's attack versus Kristiansund BK's defence, projects 1.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 7.4%. Close behind: 3-1 (7.2%), 2-2 (5.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 21% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Kristiansund BK Win
65%
1.55
16%
6.14
19%
5.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
7.4%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.2%
Home win
2 – 2
5.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.92
Kristiansund BK xG
Total xG
4.53
1.60
Stabaek xG
1.55
65%
Home win
6.14
16%
Draw
5.26
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
94%
Over 1.5
1.06
6%
Under 1.5
16.67
83%
Over 2.5
1.20
17%
Under 2.5
5.88
66%
Over 3.5
1.52
34%
Under 3.5
2.94
47%
Over 4.5
2.13
53%
Under 4.5
1.89
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
76%
BTTS Yes
1.32
24%
BTTS No
4.10
Clean Sheet
20%
4.97
5%
18.60
Win to Nil
13%
7.69
1%
97.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 3.2 | 5.1 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.4 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 7.2 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 5.3 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 1.9 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kristiansund BK vs Stabaek?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.4%.
How many goals are Kristiansund BK and Stabaek expected to score?
The model projects 2.92 expected goals for Kristiansund BK and 1.60 for Stabaek, a combined total of 4.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Kristiansund BK vs Stabaek?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 6 outings, Kristiansund BK have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 2W 4D 0L record — W-D-W-D-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Kristiansund BK, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Stabaek's form line: 2W 2D 2L from 6 games, 1.33 PPG, last five D-W-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for Stabaek, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kristiansund BK on 1.67 PPG, Stabaek on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
Kristiansund BK are averaging 2.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Stabaek are on 1.17 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kristiansund BK have seen both teams score in 83% of their recent games.
Defensively: Stabaek in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 6 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kristiansund BK
Early Season
Stabaek
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kristiansund BK and Stabaek in coming into this match?
Kristiansund BK have gone 2W 4D 0L in their last 6 games (1.67 PPG), while Stabaek have gone 2W 2D 2L in their last 6 (1.33 PPG).
Have Kristiansund BK or Stabaek been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kristiansund BK have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Stabaek in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 November 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Aug 2021, when Kristiansund BK won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kristiansund BK's record when hosting Stabaek specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Kristiansund BK
1
Draws
2
Stabaek
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kristiansund BK and Stabaek?
From 4 meetings on record, Kristiansund BK have won 1, Stabaek have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Kristiansund BK and Stabaek last play each other?
They last met on 21 November 2021, when Stabaek 3-0 Kristiansund BK.
Who has won more matches between Kristiansund BK and Stabaek?
Stabaek have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kristiansund BK see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Stabaek are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kristiansund BK 83%, Stabaek 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for Kristiansund BK and 50% for Stabaek. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Stabaek in 50%; Stabaek in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kristiansund BK home games / Stabaek away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kristiansund BK play Stabaek?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Kristiansund BK's games and 33% of Stabaek's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kristiansund BK vs Stabaek usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of Kristiansund BK's matches and 50% of Stabaek's.
Do Kristiansund BK and Stabaek tend to score early?
Kristiansund BK have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Stabaek in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Stabaek defy the odds to beat Kristiansund BK 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stabaek beat Kristiansund BK 1-2 at Kristiansund Stadion, Regular Season - 7, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kristiansund BK 2.92 xG and Stabaek 1.60 xG, a combined 4.53. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Kristiansund BK fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kristiansund BK attack 1.57 / defence 1.18 against Stabaek attack 0.87 / defence 1.46, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kristiansund BK 65% | Draw 16% | Stabaek 19%, with Kristiansund BK to win its most likely call at 65%. Instead the game produced a Stabaek win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 83%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 94% and landed. Over 3.5 was 66% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 76% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kristiansund BK 83%, Stabaek 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kristiansund BK's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did.
Stabaek's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kristiansund BK 1.67 PPG, Stabaek 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stabaek win broke the near-deadlock. Kristiansund BK managed 1 against a 2.50 scoring average — below par going forward. Stabaek scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.