Kristiansund BK 1-1 KFUM Oslo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kristiansund BK at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Kristiansund BK face KFUM Oslo.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Kristiansund BK host KFUM Oslo at Nordmøre stadion in Eliteserien (matchday 2). Kick-off is Sunday 7 April 2024 at 14:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Kristiansund BK stand at 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W D D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
In front of their own supporters, Kristiansund BK have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Kristiansund BK are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kristiansund BK 1.63 xG and KFUM Oslo 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kristiansund BK attack 0.865 / defence 1.150 | KFUM Oslo attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.635 / away 1.380. Data: built from Kristiansund BK's last 1 games and KFUM Oslo's last 1. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Kristiansund BK 44% | Draw 24% | KFUM Oslo 32%. Fair-value odds: Kristiansund BK 2.27 | Draw 4.14 | KFUM Oslo 3.14. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Kristiansund BK at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kristiansund BK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.97 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's sample (Kristiansund BK 1 games, KFUM Oslo 1) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kristiansund BK vs KFUM Oslo | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 2 | Venue: Nordmøre stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 7 April 2024 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kristiansund BK 44% | Draw 24% | KFUM Oslo 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% (Under 43%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Kristiansund BK 1.63 / KFUM Oslo 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Kristiansund BK attack 0.865 / def 1.150 | KFUM Oslo attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.635 / away 1.380 • Poisson stance: Kristiansund BK (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Kristiansund BK xG
Expected Goals
1.35
KFUM Oslo xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Kristiansund BK vs KFUM Oslo FAQs
What time does Kristiansund BK vs KFUM Oslo kick off?
Kristiansund BK vs KFUM Oslo kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Sunday 7 April 2024 at Nordmøre stadion.
What was the final score in Kristiansund BK vs KFUM Oslo?
Kristiansund BK 1 - 1 KFUM Oslo.
Where is Kristiansund BK vs KFUM Oslo being played?
The match is being played at Nordmøre stadion.
What competition is Kristiansund BK vs KFUM Oslo part of?
Kristiansund BK vs KFUM Oslo is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 2) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Kristiansund BK vs KFUM Oslo?
Our statistical model gives Kristiansund BK a 44% chance of winning, KFUM Oslo a 32% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Kristiansund BK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kristiansund BK vs KFUM Oslo?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Kristiansund BK and KFUM Oslo will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Kristiansund BK vs KFUM Oslo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Kristiansund BK's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against KFUM Oslo's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.63. The same calculation in reverse, KFUM Oslo's attack versus Kristiansund BK's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Kristiansund BK's last 1 games and KFUM Oslo's last 1, a sample that still includes some older results.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Kristiansund BK Win
44%
2.27
24%
4.14
32%
3.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Kristiansund BK xG
Total xG
2.97
1.35
KFUM Oslo xG
2.27
44%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
3.14
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
26%
3.85
20%
5.08
Win to Nil
11%
8.75
6%
15.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 6.9 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.2 | 7.6 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.1 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Kristiansund BK vs KFUM Oslo Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Kristiansund BK vs KFUM Oslo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Kristiansund BK and KFUM Oslo expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Kristiansund BK and 1.35 for KFUM Oslo, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Kristiansund BK vs KFUM Oslo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kristiansund BK
Pre-Season
KFUM Oslo
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Kristiansund BK (Home) vs KFUM Oslo (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Kristiansund BK
Pre-Season
KFUM Oslo
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from April 2024. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent was as recently as 25 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 26 Jul 2025, when KFUM Oslo won Kristiansund BK 0-5 KFUM Oslo.
Kristiansund BK's record when hosting KFUM Oslo specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Kristiansund BK
3
Draws
2
KFUM Oslo
Recent Meetings
❓ Kristiansund BK vs KFUM Oslo H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Kristiansund BK and KFUM Oslo?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Kristiansund BK have won 1, KFUM Oslo have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Kristiansund BK and KFUM Oslo last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 October 2026: Kristiansund BK 2-2 KFUM Oslo.
Who has won more matches between Kristiansund BK and KFUM Oslo?
KFUM Oslo have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kristiansund BK home games / KFUM Oslo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Kristiansund BK and KFUM Oslo share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Nordmøre stadion, Regular Season - 2, as Kristiansund BK and KFUM Oslo drew 1-1 in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kristiansund BK 1.63 xG and KFUM Oslo 1.35 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kristiansund BK attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against KFUM Oslo attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Kristiansund BK 44% | Draw 24% | KFUM Oslo 32%, with Kristiansund BK to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.