Kristiansund BK 1-1 Ham-Kam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kristiansund BK at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kristiansund BK vs Ham-Kam fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Ham-Kam travel to Kristiansund Stadion to take on Kristiansund BK. The game is scheduled for Sunday 3 May 2026, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kristiansund BK stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at Kristiansund Stadion, Kristiansund BK have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Ham-Kam have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Ham-Kam's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Ham-Kam — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Kristiansund BK have won 1, Ham-Kam 3, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Oct 2025, ended 1–3 with Ham-Kam winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Kristiansund BK in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
Ham-Kam in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kristiansund BK 58% versus Ham-Kam 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kristiansund BK 54% | Ham-Kam 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kristiansund BK 1.87 xG and Ham-Kam 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kristiansund BK attack 0.946 / defence 1.067 | Ham-Kam attack 0.983 / defence 1.156. League average goals — home 1.708 / away 1.191. Data: 34 Kristiansund BK games / 35 Ham-Kam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kristiansund BK 51% | Draw 24% | Ham-Kam 25%. Fair-value odds: Kristiansund BK 1.96 | Draw 4.17 | Ham-Kam 4.00. Kristiansund BK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.87 / 1.25) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Kristiansund BK are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Ham-Kam (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kristiansund BK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.12 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Kristiansund BK 70% | Ham-Kam 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kristiansund BK vs Ham-Kam | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Kristiansund Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 3 May 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kristiansund BK 51% | Draw 24% | Ham-Kam 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 61% | xG Kristiansund BK 1.87 / Ham-Kam 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Kristiansund BK attack 0.946 / def 1.067 | Ham-Kam attack 0.983 / def 1.156 | league avg home 1.708 / away 1.191 • Poisson stance: Kristiansund BK (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
Kristiansund BK xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Ham-Kam xG
61%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kristiansund BK vs Ham-Kam kick off?
Kristiansund BK vs Ham-Kam kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 3 May 2026 at Kristiansund Stadion.
What was the final score in Kristiansund BK vs Ham-Kam?
Kristiansund BK 1 - 1 Ham-Kam.
Where is Kristiansund BK vs Ham-Kam being played?
The match is being played at Kristiansund Stadion.
What competition is Kristiansund BK vs Ham-Kam part of?
Kristiansund BK vs Ham-Kam is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Kristiansund BK vs Ham-Kam?
Our statistical model gives Kristiansund BK a 51% chance of winning, Ham-Kam a 25% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Kristiansund BK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kristiansund BK vs Ham-Kam?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Kristiansund BK and Ham-Kam will score (BTTS).
Will Kristiansund BK vs Ham-Kam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kristiansund BK and Ham-Kam?
Record (6 meetings): Kristiansund BK 1W | Draws 2 | Ham-Kam 3W.
What form are Kristiansund BK and Ham-Kam in?
Kristiansund BK (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Ham-Kam (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Kristiansund BK's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Ham-Kam's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.87. The same calculation in reverse, Ham-Kam's attack versus Kristiansund BK's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Kristiansund BK Win
51%
1.96
24%
4.09
25%
4.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
Kristiansund BK xG
Total xG
3.12
1.25
Ham-Kam xG
1.96
51%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
4.07
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
29%
3.49
15%
6.48
Win to Nil
15%
6.85
4%
26.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 10.3 | 6.5 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 6.0 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kristiansund BK vs Ham-Kam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Kristiansund BK and Ham-Kam expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Kristiansund BK and 1.25 for Ham-Kam, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Kristiansund BK vs Ham-Kam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 59 outings, Kristiansund BK have picked up 1.15 PPG on a 17W 17D 25L record — D-L-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Ham-Kam's form line: 18W 15D 26L from 59 games, 1.17 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kristiansund BK on 1.15 PPG, Ham-Kam on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Kristiansund BK have posted 1.34 PPG from 29 outings (10W 9D 10L).
On the road, Ham-Kam have gone 7W 8D 14L from 29 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Kristiansund BK are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Ham-Kam are on 1.27 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kristiansund BK
Current Season
Ham-Kam
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kristiansund BK and Ham-Kam in coming into this match?
Kristiansund BK have gone 17W 17D 25L in their last 59 games (1.15 PPG), while Ham-Kam have gone 18W 15D 26L in their last 59 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kristiansund BK at home or Ham-Kam away?
Kristiansund BK's home record (1.34 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kristiansund BK at home: 1.34 PPG; Ham-Kam away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Kristiansund BK's record when hosting Ham-Kam specifically: 0W 3D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Kristiansund BK
4
Draws
3
Ham-Kam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kristiansund BK and Ham-Kam?
From 8 meetings on record, Kristiansund BK have won 1, Ham-Kam have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Kristiansund BK and Ham-Kam last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when Ham-Kam 2-2 Kristiansund BK.
Who has won more matches between Kristiansund BK and Ham-Kam?
Ham-Kam have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kristiansund BK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches.
Ham-Kam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kristiansund BK 59%, Ham-Kam 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Kristiansund BK) and 52% (Ham-Kam). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kristiansund BK have failed to score in 34% of games; Ham-Kam in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kristiansund BK home games / Ham-Kam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kristiansund BK play Ham-Kam?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Kristiansund BK's recent matches and 45% of Ham-Kam's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kristiansund BK vs Ham-Kam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Kristiansund BK's matches and 52% of Ham-Kam's.
Do Kristiansund BK and Ham-Kam tend to score early?
Kristiansund BK have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Ham-Kam in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kristiansund BK and Ham-Kam share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Kristiansund Stadion, Regular Season - 7, as Kristiansund BK and Ham-Kam drew 1-1 in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kristiansund BK 1.87 xG and Ham-Kam 1.25 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Kristiansund BK fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kristiansund BK attack 0.95 / defence 1.07 against Ham-Kam attack 0.98 / defence 1.16, drawn from 34/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kristiansund BK 51% | Draw 24% | Ham-Kam 25%, with Kristiansund BK to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kristiansund BK 54%, Ham-Kam 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kristiansund BK's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Ham-Kam's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kristiansund BK 1.15 PPG, Ham-Kam 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.