Kongsvinger 2-1 Sandefjord – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kongsvinger at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kongsvinger vs Sandefjord fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Kongsvinger and Sandefjord meet at Gjemselund Stadion in Eliteserien, Relegation Round. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 19 November 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Kongsvinger's overall Eliteserien record this term: 0W 0D 1L from 1 games (0.00 PPG). Last five: L. They are averaging 0.00 goals per game and conceding 4.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 4.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Kongsvinger have played only a handful of Eliteserien games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sandefjord have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sandefjord's away record: 2W 0D 8L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Sandefjord are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (0.50 vs 0.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Kongsvinger, 1 for Sandefjord and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 16 Nov 2022, ended 0–4 with Sandefjord winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kongsvinger 1.82 xG and Sandefjord 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kongsvinger attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Sandefjord attack 0.758 / defence 1.190. League average goals — home 1.798 / away 1.500. Data: 0 Kongsvinger games / 60 Sandefjord games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kongsvinger 49% | Draw 23% | Sandefjord 28%. Fair-value odds: Kongsvinger 2.04 | Draw 4.35 | Sandefjord 3.57. Kongsvinger hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.82 / 1.31) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Kongsvinger as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sandefjord (0.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kongsvinger if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.13 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kongsvinger vs Sandefjord | Competition: Eliteserien, Relegation Round | Venue: Gjemselund Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Nov 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kongsvinger 49% | Draw 23% | Sandefjord 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 61% | xG Kongsvinger 1.82 / Sandefjord 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Kongsvinger attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Sandefjord attack 0.758 / def 1.190 | league avg home 1.798 / away 1.500 • Poisson stance: Kongsvinger (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Kongsvinger xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Sandefjord xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kongsvinger vs Sandefjord kick off?
Kongsvinger vs Sandefjord kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 19 November 2022 at Gjemselund Stadion.
What was the final score in Kongsvinger vs Sandefjord?
Kongsvinger 2 - 1 Sandefjord.
Where is Kongsvinger vs Sandefjord being played?
The match is being played at Gjemselund Stadion.
What competition is Kongsvinger vs Sandefjord part of?
Kongsvinger vs Sandefjord is a Relegation Round fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Kongsvinger vs Sandefjord?
Our statistical model gives Kongsvinger a 49% chance of winning, Sandefjord a 28% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Kongsvinger the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kongsvinger vs Sandefjord?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Kongsvinger and Sandefjord will score (BTTS).
Will Kongsvinger vs Sandefjord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kongsvinger and Sandefjord?
Record (1 meetings): Kongsvinger 0W | Draws 0 | Sandefjord 1W.
What form are Kongsvinger and Sandefjord in?
Kongsvinger (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 4.00 | L5 L. Sandefjord (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Kongsvinger's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Sandefjord's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.82. Flip it around — Sandefjord's attack (0.76x) against Kongsvinger's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 0/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Kongsvinger Win
49%
2.02
23%
4.36
28%
3.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Kongsvinger xG
Total xG
3.13
1.31
Sandefjord xG
2.02
49%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
3.62
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
27%
3.70
16%
6.16
Win to Nil
13%
7.48
4%
22.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 5.7 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 10.4 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.5 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.7 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kongsvinger vs Sandefjord?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Kongsvinger and Sandefjord expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Kongsvinger and 1.31 for Sandefjord, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Kongsvinger vs Sandefjord?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Kongsvinger come into this having played 1 games, going 0W 0D 1L for 0.00 points per game. Their last five reads L. It's still early in the season for Kongsvinger, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Sandefjord sit at 3.00 PPG from 1 outings (1W 0D 0L), a run that reads W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Sandefjord, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sandefjord carry the stronger recent form of the two, 3.00 PPG clear of Kongsvinger — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Attack vs Defence
Kongsvinger are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 4.00 conceded per game recently; Sandefjord are on 4.00 scored and 0.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kongsvinger have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Sandefjord in 0%.
Defensively: Sandefjord in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kongsvinger
Early Season
Sandefjord
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kongsvinger and Sandefjord in coming into this match?
Kongsvinger have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 games (0.00 PPG), while Sandefjord have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 (3.00 PPG).
Have Kongsvinger or Sandefjord been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kongsvinger have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Sandefjord in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 November 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Kongsvinger
0
Draws
1
Sandefjord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kongsvinger and Sandefjord?
From 2 meetings on record, Kongsvinger have won 1, Sandefjord have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Kongsvinger and Sandefjord last play each other?
They last met on 19 November 2022, when Kongsvinger 2-1 Sandefjord.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kongsvinger home games / Sandefjord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kongsvinger play Sandefjord?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Kongsvinger's recent matches and 0% of Sandefjord's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kongsvinger vs Sandefjord usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Kongsvinger's matches and 100% of Sandefjord's.
Do Kongsvinger and Sandefjord tend to score early?
Kongsvinger have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Sandefjord in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Kongsvinger edge out Sandefjord 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kongsvinger beat Sandefjord 2-1 at Gjemselund Stadion, Relegation Round, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kongsvinger 1.82 xG and Sandefjord 1.31 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kongsvinger attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Sandefjord attack 0.76 / defence 1.19, drawn from 0/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kongsvinger 49% | Draw 23% | Sandefjord 28%, with Kongsvinger to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 100% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kongsvinger 100%, Sandefjord 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Sandefjord arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. Form was overturned, with Kongsvinger winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Kongsvinger scored 2 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 4.00 average — tighter than their form line. Sandefjord managed 1 against a 4.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.