jerv 1-2 Sandefjord – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sandefjord at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this jerv vs Sandefjord encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Sandefjord travel to J.J. Ugland Stadion to take on jerv. The game is scheduled for Saturday 16 July 2022, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, jerv have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for jerv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at J.J. Ugland Stadion, jerv have gone 3W 1D 3L this season (7 games, 1.43 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.71 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 7 games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.43 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — jerv are significantly better at J.J. Ugland Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sandefjord stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W D L D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sandefjord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Sandefjord have gone 5W 0D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Sandefjord's 1.10 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of jerv's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Profile
jerv in-play tendencies (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Sandefjord in-play tendencies (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 57%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — jerv 43% versus Sandefjord 64%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (jerv 50% | Sandefjord 86%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects jerv 1.00 xG and Sandefjord 1.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: jerv attack 0.597 / defence 1.117 | Sandefjord attack 1.208 / defence 1.049. League average goals — home 1.602 / away 1.381. jerv's attack strength of 0.597 is below the league average — the 1.00 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Sandefjord have an above-average attack strength of 1.208 — the away xG of 1.86 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 13 jerv games / 42 Sandefjord games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: jerv 20% | Draw 23% | Sandefjord 57%. Fair-value odds: jerv 5.00 | Draw 4.35 | Sandefjord 1.75. The model has a clear lean to Sandefjord (57%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sandefjord as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.87 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: jerv 29% | Sandefjord 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: jerv vs Sandefjord | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: J.J. Ugland Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Jul 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: jerv 20% | Draw 23% | Sandefjord 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 54% | xG jerv 1.00 / Sandefjord 1.86 • Poisson strength factors: jerv attack 0.597 / def 1.117 | Sandefjord attack 1.208 / def 1.049 | league avg home 1.602 / away 1.381 • Poisson stance: Sandefjord (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
jerv xG
Expected Goals
1.86
Sandefjord xG
54%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does jerv vs Sandefjord kick off?
jerv vs Sandefjord kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 16 July 2022 at J.J. Ugland Stadion.
What was the final score in jerv vs Sandefjord?
jerv 1 - 2 Sandefjord.
Where is jerv vs Sandefjord being played?
The match is being played at J.J. Ugland Stadion.
What competition is jerv vs Sandefjord part of?
jerv vs Sandefjord is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win jerv vs Sandefjord?
Our statistical model gives jerv a 20% chance of winning, Sandefjord a 57% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Sandefjord the favourite.
Will both teams score in jerv vs Sandefjord?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both jerv and Sandefjord will score (BTTS).
Will jerv vs Sandefjord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between jerv and Sandefjord?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are jerv and Sandefjord in?
jerv (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. Sandefjord (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from jerv's attack rating (0.60) and Sandefjord's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.00 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sandefjord's attack versus jerv's defence, projects 1.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sandefjord Win
20%
5.00
23%
4.43
57%
1.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
0 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
jerv xG
Total xG
2.87
1.86
Sandefjord xG
5.00
20%
Home win
4.43
23%
Draw
1.74
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
16%
6.44
37%
2.73
Win to Nil
3%
32.15
21%
4.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 10.6 | 9.9 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 10.6 | 9.9 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 5.3 | 5.0 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for jerv vs Sandefjord?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are jerv and Sandefjord expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for jerv and 1.86 for Sandefjord, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for jerv vs Sandefjord?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
jerv come into this having played 14 games, going 3W 3D 8L for 0.86 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D-L. The sample for jerv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sandefjord sit at 1.21 PPG from 14 outings (5W 2D 7L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Sandefjord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: jerv on 0.86 PPG, Sandefjord on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
jerv's home form reads 3W 1D 3L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.43 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.86 PPG overall — jerv are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Sandefjord have taken 1.71 points per game from 7 outings (4W 0D 3L). That's actually stronger than their 1.21 PPG overall record — Sandefjord travel well.
The Goals Picture
jerv are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.93 conceded per game recently; Sandefjord are on 1.71 scored and 2.07 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sandefjord in 64%.
Last 14 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
jerv
Blended
Sandefjord
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are jerv and Sandefjord in coming into this match?
jerv have gone 3W 3D 8L in their last 14 games (0.86 PPG), while Sandefjord have gone 5W 2D 7L in their last 14 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — jerv at home or Sandefjord away?
Sandefjord's away record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — jerv at home: 1.43 PPG; Sandefjord away: 1.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between jerv and Sandefjord runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
jerv
0
Draws
1
Sandefjord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between jerv and Sandefjord?
From 2 meetings on record, jerv have won 1, Sandefjord have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did jerv and Sandefjord last play each other?
They last met on 16 October 2022, when Sandefjord 1-2 jerv.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
jerv see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — jerv 29%, Sandefjord 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (jerv) and 86% (Sandefjord). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 14% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: jerv keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; jerv have failed to score in 29% of games; Sandefjord in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = jerv home games / Sandefjord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when jerv play Sandefjord?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of jerv's recent matches and 43% of Sandefjord's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is jerv vs Sandefjord usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 29% of jerv's matches and 86% of Sandefjord's.
Do jerv and Sandefjord tend to score early?
jerv have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Sandefjord in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sandefjord edge out jerv 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sandefjord beat jerv 1-2 at J.J. Ugland Stadion, Regular Season - 14, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting jerv 1.00 xG and Sandefjord 1.86 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of jerv attack 0.60 / defence 1.12 against Sandefjord attack 1.21 / defence 1.05, drawn from 13/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it jerv 20% | Draw 23% | Sandefjord 57%, with Sandefjord to win its most likely call at 57%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (jerv 50%, Sandefjord 86%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
jerv's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Sandefjord's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — jerv 0.86 PPG, Sandefjord 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sandefjord win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.