Haugesund 3-0 Tromso – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Haugesund at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Haugesund vs Tromso encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 11 as Haugesund welcome Tromso to Haugesund Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 4 July 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Haugesund — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L W W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Haugesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Haugesund have posted 5W 3D 2L at Haugesund Stadion — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Tromso have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Tromso, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Tromso's away record: 2W 1D 2L from 5 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Haugesund carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Trading Patterns
Haugesund in-play and half-time data (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Tromso in-play and half-time data (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Haugesund 30% | Tromso 40%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Haugesund 50% | Tromso 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haugesund 1.61 xG and Tromso 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haugesund attack 1.058 / defence 0.817 | Tromso attack 0.865 / defence 0.948. League average goals — home 1.602 / away 1.157. Data: 38 Haugesund games / 10 Tromso games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Haugesund 54% | Draw 29% | Tromso 17%. Fair-value odds: Haugesund 1.85 | Draw 3.45 | Tromso 5.88. Haugesund hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Haugesund are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Haugesund offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Haugesund 40% | Tromso 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haugesund vs Tromso | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Haugesund Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Jul 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haugesund 54% | Draw 29% | Tromso 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 47% | xG Haugesund 1.61 / Tromso 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Haugesund attack 1.058 / def 0.817 | Tromso attack 0.865 / def 0.948 | league avg home 1.602 / away 1.157 • Poisson stance: Haugesund (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Haugesund xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Tromso xG
47%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haugesund vs Tromso kick off?
Haugesund vs Tromso kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 4 July 2021 at Haugesund Stadion.
What was the final score in Haugesund vs Tromso?
Haugesund 3 - 0 Tromso.
Where is Haugesund vs Tromso being played?
The match is being played at Haugesund Stadion.
What competition is Haugesund vs Tromso part of?
Haugesund vs Tromso is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Haugesund vs Tromso?
Our statistical model gives Haugesund a 54% chance of winning, Tromso a 17% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Haugesund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haugesund vs Tromso?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Haugesund and Tromso will score (BTTS).
Will Haugesund vs Tromso have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Tromso?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Haugesund and Tromso in?
Haugesund (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. Tromso (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Haugesund's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Tromso's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.61. The same calculation in reverse, Tromso's attack versus Haugesund's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.7%), 2-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Haugesund Win
54%
1.85
29%
3.47
17%
5.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Haugesund xG
Total xG
2.42
0.82
Tromso xG
1.85
54%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
5.88
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
44%
2.27
20%
4.99
Win to Nil
24%
4.19
3%
29.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.2 | 11.6 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.3 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.1 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haugesund vs Tromso?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Haugesund and Tromso expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Haugesund and 0.82 for Tromso, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Haugesund vs Tromso?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Haugesund's recent record stands at 4W 3D 3L from 10 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Haugesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Tromso, meanwhile, have gone 2W 3D 5L across 10 games — 0.90 PPG, with L-W-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Tromso is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Haugesund by 0.60 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Tromso heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Haugesund have managed 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.50 PPG overall — Haugesund are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Tromso's away record stands at 2W 1D 2L across 5 trips, a 1.40 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 0.90 PPG overall record — Tromso travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Haugesund come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Haugesund are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Tromso are on 1.00 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Haugesund have seen both teams score in 30% of their recent games.
Defensively: Haugesund have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haugesund
Blended
Tromso
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Haugesund and Tromso in coming into this match?
Haugesund have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 games (1.50 PPG), while Tromso have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haugesund at home or Tromso away?
Haugesund's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haugesund at home: 2.00 PPG; Tromso away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Haugesund or Tromso been keeping clean sheets recently?
Haugesund have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Tromso in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Haugesund and Tromso runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 26 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Tromso have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Jul 2021, when Haugesund won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Haugesund's record when hosting Tromso specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Haugesund
1
Draws
5
Tromso
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Tromso?
From 10 meetings on record, Haugesund have won 4, Tromso have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Haugesund and Tromso last play each other?
They last met on 26 October 2025, when Haugesund 2-3 Tromso.
Who has won more matches between Haugesund and Tromso?
Tromso have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Haugesund see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Tromso are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Haugesund 20% BTTS, Tromso 20%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Haugesund and 60% for Tromso. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Haugesund keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Tromso in 40%; Haugesund have failed to score in 40% of games; Tromso in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haugesund home games / Tromso away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Haugesund play Tromso?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Haugesund's recent matches and 20% of Tromso's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Haugesund vs Tromso usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Haugesund's matches and 60% of Tromso's.
Do Haugesund and Tromso tend to score early?
Haugesund have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Tromso in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Haugesund run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Tromso.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Haugesund beat Tromso 3-0 at Haugesund Stadion, Regular Season - 11, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haugesund 1.61 xG and Tromso 0.82 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Haugesund beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Tromso landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haugesund attack 1.06 / defence 0.82 against Tromso attack 0.86 / defence 0.95, drawn from 38/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haugesund 54% | Draw 29% | Tromso 17%, with Haugesund to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haugesund 50%, Tromso 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 35%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haugesund's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Tromso's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Haugesund arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.90. Form held, and they took the win. Haugesund (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Tromso (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.