Haugesund 1-2 Molde – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Haugesund at 47%, yet in-form Molde provide a compelling counter-argument — this Haugesund vs Molde fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 30 as Haugesund welcome Molde to Haugesund Sparebank Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 12 December 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Haugesund have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L D D L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Haugesund's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Haugesund Sparebank Arena this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Haugesund are significantly better at Haugesund Sparebank Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Molde stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Molde have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Molde — 1.30 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Haugesund have won 0, Molde 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 9.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 8 Aug 2021, ended 4–5 with Molde winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 9.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Haugesund trading profile (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Molde trading profile (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Haugesund 56% versus Molde 61%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Haugesund 63% | Molde 80%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haugesund 1.84 xG and Molde 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haugesund attack 1.097 / defence 1.014 | Molde attack 1.057 / defence 0.977. League average goals — home 1.722 / away 1.261. Data: 59 Haugesund games / 59 Molde games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Haugesund 47% | Draw 28% | Molde 26%. Fair-value odds: Haugesund 2.13 | Draw 3.57 | Molde 3.85. Haugesund hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.84 / 1.35) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Haugesund at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Molde (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Haugesund offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.20 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates are neutral: Haugesund 60% | Molde 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haugesund vs Molde | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Haugesund Sparebank Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Dec 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haugesund 47% | Draw 28% | Molde 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 65% | xG Haugesund 1.84 / Molde 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Haugesund attack 1.097 / def 1.014 | Molde attack 1.057 / def 0.977 | league avg home 1.722 / away 1.261 • Poisson stance: Haugesund (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Haugesund xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Molde xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haugesund vs Molde kick off?
Haugesund vs Molde kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 12 December 2021 at Haugesund Sparebank Arena.
What was the final score in Haugesund vs Molde?
Haugesund 1 - 2 Molde.
Where is Haugesund vs Molde being played?
The match is being played at Haugesund Sparebank Arena.
What competition is Haugesund vs Molde part of?
Haugesund vs Molde is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Haugesund vs Molde?
Our statistical model gives Haugesund a 47% chance of winning, Molde a 26% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Haugesund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haugesund vs Molde?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Haugesund and Molde will score (BTTS).
Will Haugesund vs Molde have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Molde?
Record (1 meetings): Haugesund 0W | Draws 0 | Molde 1W.
What form are Haugesund and Molde in?
Haugesund (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-L-D. Molde (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Haugesund's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against Molde's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.84. The same calculation in reverse, Molde's attack versus Haugesund's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Haugesund Win
47%
2.15
28%
3.61
26%
3.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
Haugesund xG
Total xG
3.20
1.35
Molde xG
2.15
47%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
3.89
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.85
Clean Sheet
26%
3.87
16%
6.33
Win to Nil
12%
8.29
4%
24.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 5.5 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 10.2 | 6.9 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.4 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.8 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haugesund vs Molde?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Haugesund and Molde expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Haugesund and 1.35 for Molde, a combined total of 3.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Haugesund vs Molde?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Haugesund come into this having played 59 games, going 20W 14D 25L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-L-D.
On the other side, Molde sit at 2.02 PPG from 59 outings (37W 8D 14L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-D across their last five.
Molde carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.77 PPG clear of Haugesund — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Haugesund's home form reads 14W 6D 9L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.66 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.25 PPG overall — Haugesund are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Molde have taken 1.62 points per game from 29 outings (14W 5D 10L).
The Goals Picture
Haugesund are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Molde are on 2.46 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Molde in 61%.
Last 59 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haugesund
Current Season
Molde
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Haugesund and Molde in coming into this match?
Haugesund have gone 20W 14D 25L in their last 59 games (1.25 PPG), while Molde have gone 37W 8D 14L in their last 59 (2.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haugesund at home or Molde away?
Haugesund's home record (1.66 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haugesund at home: 1.66 PPG; Molde away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Haugesund or Molde been keeping clean sheets recently?
Haugesund have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Molde in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Haugesund and Molde runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 9 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Molde have taken the last 10 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Oct 2024, when Molde won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Haugesund's record when hosting Molde specifically: 0W 0D 5L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Haugesund
0
Draws
10
Molde
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Molde?
From 10 meetings on record, Haugesund have won 0, Molde have won 10, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Haugesund and Molde last play each other?
They last met on 9 November 2025, when Haugesund 0-2 Molde.
Who has won more matches between Haugesund and Molde?
Molde have the better head-to-head record, with 10 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Molde are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Haugesund 52%, Molde 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Haugesund and 76% for Molde. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Haugesund keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haugesund home games / Molde away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Haugesund play Molde?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Haugesund's games and 66% of Molde's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Haugesund vs Molde usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Haugesund's matches and 76% of Molde's.
Do Haugesund and Molde tend to score early?
Haugesund have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Molde in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Molde defy the odds to beat Haugesund 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Molde beat Haugesund 1-2 at Haugesund Sparebank Arena, Regular Season - 30, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haugesund 1.84 xG and Molde 1.35 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Haugesund fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haugesund attack 1.10 / defence 1.01 against Molde attack 1.06 / defence 0.98, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haugesund 47% | Draw 28% | Molde 26%, with Haugesund to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Molde win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haugesund 63%, Molde 80%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haugesund's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Molde's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Molde arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 1.25. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.