Haugesund 2-2 Kristiansund BK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Haugesund at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Haugesund vs Kristiansund BK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Haugesund Stadion plays host to Haugesund versus Kristiansund BK in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Wednesday 24 June 2020 at 17:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haugesund 1.17 xG and Kristiansund BK 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haugesund attack 0.890 / defence 1.231 | Kristiansund BK attack 0.681 / defence 0.968. League average goals — home 1.352 / away 1.364. Data: 2 Haugesund games / 2 Kristiansund BK games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Haugesund 36% | Draw 28% | Kristiansund BK 35%. Fair-value odds: Haugesund 2.78 | Draw 3.57 | Kristiansund BK 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Haugesund at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Haugesund if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.31 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haugesund vs Kristiansund BK | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Haugesund Stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 24 Jun 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haugesund 36% | Draw 28% | Kristiansund BK 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Haugesund 1.17 / Kristiansund BK 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Haugesund attack 0.890 / def 1.231 | Kristiansund BK attack 0.681 / def 0.968 | league avg home 1.352 / away 1.364 • Poisson stance: Haugesund (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Haugesund xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Kristiansund BK xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haugesund vs Kristiansund BK kick off?
Haugesund vs Kristiansund BK kicked off at 17:00 on Wednesday 24 June 2020 at Haugesund Stadion.
What was the final score in Haugesund vs Kristiansund BK?
Haugesund 2 - 2 Kristiansund BK.
Where is Haugesund vs Kristiansund BK being played?
The match is being played at Haugesund Stadion.
What competition is Haugesund vs Kristiansund BK part of?
Haugesund vs Kristiansund BK is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Haugesund vs Kristiansund BK?
Our statistical model gives Haugesund a 36% chance of winning, Kristiansund BK a 35% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Haugesund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haugesund vs Kristiansund BK?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Haugesund and Kristiansund BK will score (BTTS).
Will Haugesund vs Kristiansund BK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Kristiansund BK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Haugesund and Kristiansund BK in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Haugesund's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Kristiansund BK's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.17. Flip it around — Kristiansund BK's attack (0.68x) against Haugesund's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Haugesund Win
36%
2.75
28%
3.53
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Haugesund xG
Total xG
2.31
1.14
Kristiansund BK xG
2.75
36%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
31%
3.21
Win to Nil
12%
8.64
11%
9.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 11.4 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.2 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.7 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haugesund vs Kristiansund BK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Haugesund and Kristiansund BK expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Haugesund and 1.14 for Kristiansund BK, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Haugesund vs Kristiansund BK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haugesund
Pre-Season
Kristiansund BK
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 21 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Haugesund won 3-0 on 20 Jun 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Haugesund have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Kristiansund BK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Haugesund
3
Draws
2
Kristiansund BK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Kristiansund BK?
From 10 meetings on record, Haugesund have won 5, Kristiansund BK have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Haugesund and Kristiansund BK last play each other?
They last met on 21 September 2025, when Kristiansund BK 2-0 Haugesund.
Who has won more matches between Haugesund and Kristiansund BK?
Haugesund have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haugesund home games / Kristiansund BK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Haugesund and Kristiansund BK share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Haugesund Stadion, Regular Season - 3, as Haugesund and Kristiansund BK drew 2-2 in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haugesund 1.17 xG and Kristiansund BK 1.14 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Haugesund beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Kristiansund BK outscored their 1.14 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haugesund attack 0.89 / defence 1.23 against Kristiansund BK attack 0.68 / defence 0.97, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Haugesund 36% | Draw 28% | Kristiansund BK 35%, with Haugesund to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.