Haugesund 1-0 Brann – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Haugesund at 67%, yet other data sources diverge — this Haugesund vs Brann fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Brann travel to Haugesund Stadion to take on Haugesund. The game is scheduled for Thursday 24 June 2021, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Haugesund stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Haugesund have posted 5W 2D 3L at Haugesund Stadion — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Brann have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L D D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Brann's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Haugesund 1.70 PPG, Brann 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Haugesund register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Brann in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Haugesund, 1 for Brann and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 7 Nov 2020, ended 2–1 with Haugesund winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Haugesund trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Brann trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Haugesund 57% and Brann 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Haugesund 60% | Brann 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haugesund 2.16 xG and Brann 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haugesund attack 1.132 / defence 0.887 | Brann attack 0.768 / defence 1.161. League average goals — home 1.645 / away 1.229. Data: 36 Haugesund games / 39 Brann games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Haugesund 67% | Draw 21% | Brann 12%. Fair-value odds: Haugesund 1.49 | Draw 4.76 | Brann 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Haugesund (67%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Haugesund are the pick at 67% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.00 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Haugesund 60% | Brann 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haugesund vs Brann | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Haugesund Stadion • Kick-off: Thursday 24 Jun 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haugesund 67% | Draw 21% | Brann 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 51% | xG Haugesund 2.16 / Brann 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Haugesund attack 1.132 / def 0.887 | Brann attack 0.768 / def 1.161 | league avg home 1.645 / away 1.229 • Poisson stance: Haugesund (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.16
Haugesund xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Brann xG
51%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haugesund vs Brann kick off?
Haugesund vs Brann kicked off at 17:00 on Thursday 24 June 2021 at Haugesund Stadion.
What was the final score in Haugesund vs Brann?
Haugesund 1 - 0 Brann.
Where is Haugesund vs Brann being played?
The match is being played at Haugesund Stadion.
What competition is Haugesund vs Brann part of?
Haugesund vs Brann is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Haugesund vs Brann?
Our statistical model gives Haugesund a 67% chance of winning, Brann a 12% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Haugesund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haugesund vs Brann?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Haugesund and Brann will score (BTTS).
Will Haugesund vs Brann have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Brann?
Record (2 meetings): Haugesund 1W | Draws 0 | Brann 1W.
What form are Haugesund and Brann in?
Haugesund (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-L-W. Brann (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Haugesund's attack rating (1.13) and Brann's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 2.16 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Brann's attack versus Haugesund's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.2%), 2-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Haugesund Win
67%
1.50
21%
4.73
12%
8.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.16
Haugesund xG
Total xG
3.00
0.84
Brann xG
1.50
67%
Home win
4.73
21%
Draw
8.21
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
11%
8.70
Win to Nil
29%
3.47
1%
71.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.8 | 9.0 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.8 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.4 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.5 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haugesund vs Brann?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Haugesund and Brann expected to score?
The model projects 2.16 expected goals for Haugesund and 0.84 for Brann, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Haugesund vs Brann?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 30 outings, Haugesund have picked up 1.30 PPG on a 11W 6D 13L record — L-D-D-L-W across the most recent five.
Brann's form line: 9W 9D 12L from 30 games, 1.20 PPG, last five W-L-D-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Haugesund on 1.30 PPG, Brann on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Haugesund have posted 1.40 PPG from 15 outings (6W 3D 6L).
On the road, Brann have gone 5W 4D 6L from 15 away games — 1.27 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Haugesund are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Brann are on 1.33 scored and 1.63 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Brann in 73%.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haugesund
Current Season
Brann
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Haugesund and Brann in coming into this match?
Haugesund have gone 11W 6D 13L in their last 30 games (1.30 PPG), while Brann have gone 9W 9D 12L in their last 30 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haugesund at home or Brann away?
Haugesund's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haugesund at home: 1.40 PPG; Brann away: 1.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 18 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Brann have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Apr 2023, when Brann won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Haugesund's record when hosting Brann specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Haugesund
1
Draws
6
Brann
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Brann?
From 10 meetings on record, Haugesund have won 3, Brann have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Haugesund and Brann last play each other?
They last met on 18 October 2025, when Brann 4-1 Haugesund.
Who has won more matches between Haugesund and Brann?
Brann have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Brann are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Haugesund 53%, Brann 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Haugesund) and 53% (Brann). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Haugesund have failed to score in 27% of games; Brann in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haugesund home games / Brann away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Haugesund play Brann?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Haugesund's games and 60% of Brann's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Haugesund vs Brann usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Haugesund's matches and 53% of Brann's.
Do Haugesund and Brann tend to score early?
Haugesund have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Brann in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Haugesund edge out Brann 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Haugesund beat Brann 1-0 at Haugesund Stadion, Regular Season - 9, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haugesund 2.16 xG and Brann 0.84 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Haugesund fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Brann landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haugesund attack 1.13 / defence 0.89 against Brann attack 0.77 / defence 1.16, drawn from 36/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haugesund 67% | Draw 21% | Brann 12%, with Haugesund to win its most likely call at 67%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haugesund 60%, Brann 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haugesund's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Brann's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Haugesund 1.30 PPG, Brann 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Haugesund win broke the near-deadlock. Haugesund (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.73 average — tighter than their form line. Brann (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.