Ham-Kam 1-2 Tromso – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Tromso at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ham-Kam vs Tromso encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Tromso make the trip to Briskeby Arena to face Ham-Kam in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Sunday 6 November 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Ham-Kam have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W L D D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Ham-Kam's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Briskeby Arena this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Tromso (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: L W W D D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Tromso's form when playing away from home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Tromso are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.20). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Ham-Kam have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Tromso in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Ham-Kam 0W, Tromso 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 10 Apr 2022, ended 1–2 with Tromso winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Ham-Kam — key trading statistics (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Tromso — key trading statistics (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ham-Kam 68% and Tromso 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ham-Kam 50% | Tromso 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ham-Kam 1.09 xG and Tromso 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ham-Kam attack 0.664 / defence 0.946 | Tromso attack 0.861 / defence 0.928. League average goals — home 1.764 / away 1.411. Ham-Kam's attack strength of 0.664 is below the league average — the 1.09 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 28 Ham-Kam games / 58 Tromso games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ham-Kam 34% | Draw 29% | Tromso 37%. Fair-value odds: Ham-Kam 2.94 | Draw 3.45 | Tromso 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Tromso as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Tromso if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.23 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Ham-Kam 60% | Tromso 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ham-Kam vs Tromso | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Briskeby Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Nov 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ham-Kam 34% | Draw 29% | Tromso 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Ham-Kam 1.09 / Tromso 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Ham-Kam attack 0.664 / def 0.946 | Tromso attack 0.861 / def 0.928 | league avg home 1.764 / away 1.411 • Poisson stance: Tromso (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Ham-Kam xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Tromso xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ham-Kam vs Tromso kick off?
Ham-Kam vs Tromso kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 6 November 2022 at Briskeby Arena.
What was the final score in Ham-Kam vs Tromso?
Ham-Kam 1 - 2 Tromso.
Where is Ham-Kam vs Tromso being played?
The match is being played at Briskeby Arena.
What competition is Ham-Kam vs Tromso part of?
Ham-Kam vs Tromso is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Ham-Kam vs Tromso?
Our statistical model gives Ham-Kam a 34% chance of winning, Tromso a 37% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Tromso the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ham-Kam vs Tromso?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Ham-Kam and Tromso will score (BTTS).
Will Ham-Kam vs Tromso have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Tromso?
Record (1 meetings): Ham-Kam 0W | Draws 0 | Tromso 1W.
What form are Ham-Kam and Tromso in?
Ham-Kam (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-D-W. Tromso (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Ham-Kam's attack rating (0.66) and Tromso's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.09 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Tromso's attack (0.86x) against Ham-Kam's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 28/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.4%), 0-1 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tromso Win
34%
2.94
29%
3.47
37%
2.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Ham-Kam xG
Total xG
2.23
1.15
Tromso xG
2.94
34%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
2.69
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
34%
2.96
Win to Nil
11%
9.26
13%
7.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 12.3 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.4 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.3 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ham-Kam vs Tromso?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Ham-Kam and Tromso expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Ham-Kam and 1.15 for Tromso, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Ham-Kam vs Tromso?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 28 outings, Ham-Kam have picked up 1.11 PPG on a 6W 13D 9L record — W-L-D-D-W across the most recent five.
Tromso's form line: 9W 12D 7L from 28 games, 1.39 PPG, last five L-W-W-D-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.11 PPG for Ham-Kam against 1.39 for Tromso. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Ham-Kam have posted 1.29 PPG from 14 outings (4W 6D 4L).
On the road, Tromso have gone 1W 8D 5L from 14 away games — 0.79 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.39 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Tromso's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ham-Kam come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Ham-Kam are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Tromso are on 1.50 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ham-Kam have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games; Tromso in 75%.
Last 28 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ham-Kam
Current Season
Tromso
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ham-Kam and Tromso in coming into this match?
Ham-Kam have gone 6W 13D 9L in their last 28 games (1.11 PPG), while Tromso have gone 9W 12D 7L in their last 28 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ham-Kam at home or Tromso away?
Ham-Kam's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ham-Kam at home: 1.29 PPG; Tromso away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 18 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Tromso have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Tromso won 1-4 on 18 Jul 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ham-Kam have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Tromso — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
0
Ham-Kam
2
Draws
7
Tromso
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Tromso?
From 9 meetings on record, Ham-Kam have won 0, Tromso have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ham-Kam and Tromso last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2026, when Ham-Kam 1-4 Tromso.
Who has won more matches between Ham-Kam and Tromso?
Tromso have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ham-Kam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Tromso are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 57% for Ham-Kam, 79% for Tromso — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Ham-Kam) and 50% (Tromso).
On the defensive side: Ham-Kam have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ham-Kam home games / Tromso away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ham-Kam play Tromso?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Ham-Kam's games and 79% of Tromso's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ham-Kam vs Tromso usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Ham-Kam's recent games and 50% of Tromso's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ham-Kam and Tromso tend to score early?
Ham-Kam have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Tromso in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Tromso edge out Ham-Kam 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tromso beat Ham-Kam 1-2 at Briskeby Arena, Regular Season - 29, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ham-Kam 1.09 xG and Tromso 1.15 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Tromso outscored their 1.15 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ham-Kam attack 0.66 / defence 0.95 against Tromso attack 0.86 / defence 0.93, drawn from 28/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ham-Kam 34% | Draw 29% | Tromso 37%, with Tromso to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ham-Kam 50%, Tromso 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ham-Kam's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Tromso's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ham-Kam 1.11 PPG, Tromso 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Tromso win broke the near-deadlock. Ham-Kam (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Tromso (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.