Ham-Kam 2-1 Start – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ham-Kam at 68%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ham-Kam vs Start fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Start travel to Briskeby Arena to take on Ham-Kam. The game is scheduled for Sunday 26 April 2026, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Ham-Kam have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Briskeby Arena, Ham-Kam have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ham-Kam 2.46 xG and Start 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ham-Kam attack 1.203 / defence 1.152 | Start attack 0.736 / defence 1.232. League average goals — home 1.661 / away 1.231. Start bring a strong defensive rating of 1.232 — this is suppressing Ham-Kam's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 34 Ham-Kam games / 5 Start games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ham-Kam 68% | Draw 19% | Start 13%. Fair-value odds: Ham-Kam 1.47 | Draw 5.26 | Start 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Ham-Kam (68%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.51. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.51 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.46 / 1.04) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ham-Kam are the pick at 68% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.51 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ham-Kam vs Start | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Briskeby Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Apr 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ham-Kam 68% | Draw 19% | Start 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 60% | xG Ham-Kam 2.46 / Start 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Ham-Kam attack 1.203 / def 1.152 | Start attack 0.736 / def 1.232 | league avg home 1.661 / away 1.231 • Poisson stance: Ham-Kam (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.46
Ham-Kam xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Start xG
60%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ham-Kam vs Start kick off?
Ham-Kam vs Start kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 26 April 2026 at Briskeby Arena.
What was the final score in Ham-Kam vs Start?
Ham-Kam 2 - 1 Start.
Where is Ham-Kam vs Start being played?
The match is being played at Briskeby Arena.
What competition is Ham-Kam vs Start part of?
Ham-Kam vs Start is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Ham-Kam vs Start?
Our statistical model gives Ham-Kam a 68% chance of winning, Start a 13% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Ham-Kam the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ham-Kam vs Start?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Ham-Kam and Start will score (BTTS).
Will Ham-Kam vs Start have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Start?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ham-Kam and Start in?
Ham-Kam (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Ham-Kam home split: 1.70 PPG from 10 | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Ham-Kam's attack rating (1.20) and Start's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 2.46 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Start's attack versus Ham-Kam's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.5%. Close behind: 2-0 (9.1%), 1-1 (8.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ham-Kam Win
68%
1.48
19%
5.24
13%
7.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.1%
Home win
3 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.46
Ham-Kam xG
Total xG
3.51
1.04
Start xG
1.48
68%
Home win
5.24
19%
Draw
7.50
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
9%
11.75
Win to Nil
24%
4.21
1%
88.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 7.4 | 7.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.5 | 7.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.6 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ham-Kam vs Start?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Ham-Kam and Start expected to score?
The model projects 2.46 expected goals for Ham-Kam and 1.04 for Start, a combined total of 3.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Ham-Kam vs Start?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ham-Kam
Pre-Season
Start
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
1 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 1 Meetings
1
Ham-Kam
0
Draws
0
Start
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Start?
From 1 meetings on record, Ham-Kam have won 1, Start have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ham-Kam and Start last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Ham-Kam 2-1 Start.
Who has won more matches between Ham-Kam and Start?
Ham-Kam have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ham-Kam home games / Start away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Ham-Kam edge out Start 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ham-Kam beat Start 2-1 at Briskeby Arena, Regular Season - 6, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ham-Kam 2.46 xG and Start 1.04 xG, a combined 3.51. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ham-Kam attack 1.20 / defence 1.15 against Start attack 0.74 / defence 1.23, drawn from 34/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ham-Kam 68% | Draw 19% | Start 13%, with Ham-Kam to win its most likely call at 68%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.