Ham-Kam 0-2 KFUM Oslo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ham-Kam at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ham-Kam vs KFUM Oslo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
KFUM Oslo make the trip to Briskeby Arena to face Ham-Kam in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 30. The match kicks off on Sunday 1 December 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Ham-Kam (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Ham-Kam at Briskeby Arena this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
KFUM Oslo have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, KFUM Oslo have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 0.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Ham-Kam, 0 for KFUM Oslo and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Apr 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Ham-Kam — key trading statistics (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
KFUM Oslo — key trading statistics (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ham-Kam 41% versus KFUM Oslo 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ham-Kam 38% | KFUM Oslo 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ham-Kam 1.17 xG and KFUM Oslo 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ham-Kam attack 0.825 / defence 0.937 | KFUM Oslo attack 0.843 / defence 0.953. League average goals — home 1.494 / away 1.256. Data: 59 Ham-Kam games / 29 KFUM Oslo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ham-Kam 40% | Draw 29% | KFUM Oslo 31%. Fair-value odds: Ham-Kam 2.50 | Draw 3.45 | KFUM Oslo 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ham-Kam are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ham-Kam if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.17 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Ham-Kam 30% | KFUM Oslo 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ham-Kam vs KFUM Oslo | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Briskeby Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Dec 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ham-Kam 40% | Draw 29% | KFUM Oslo 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 43% | xG Ham-Kam 1.17 / KFUM Oslo 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Ham-Kam attack 0.825 / def 0.937 | KFUM Oslo attack 0.843 / def 0.953 | league avg home 1.494 / away 1.256 • Poisson stance: Ham-Kam (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Ham-Kam xG
Expected Goals
0.99
KFUM Oslo xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ham-Kam vs KFUM Oslo kick off?
Ham-Kam vs KFUM Oslo kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 1 December 2024 at Briskeby Arena.
What was the final score in Ham-Kam vs KFUM Oslo?
Ham-Kam 0 - 2 KFUM Oslo.
Where is Ham-Kam vs KFUM Oslo being played?
The match is being played at Briskeby Arena.
What competition is Ham-Kam vs KFUM Oslo part of?
Ham-Kam vs KFUM Oslo is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Ham-Kam vs KFUM Oslo?
Our statistical model gives Ham-Kam a 40% chance of winning, KFUM Oslo a 31% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Ham-Kam the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ham-Kam vs KFUM Oslo?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Ham-Kam and KFUM Oslo will score (BTTS).
Will Ham-Kam vs KFUM Oslo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and KFUM Oslo?
Record (1 meetings): Ham-Kam 0W | Draws 1 | KFUM Oslo 0W.
What form are Ham-Kam and KFUM Oslo in?
Ham-Kam (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. KFUM Oslo (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about Ham-Kam vs KFUM Oslo?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Ham-Kam's attack at 0.82x the league average against KFUM Oslo's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.17 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — KFUM Oslo's attack (0.84x) against Ham-Kam's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 59/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 1-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ham-Kam Win
40%
2.50
29%
3.42
31%
3.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Ham-Kam xG
Total xG
2.17
0.99
KFUM Oslo xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
3.25
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.30
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
15%
6.75
10%
10.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 11.4 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 13.4 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 7.8 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ham-Kam vs KFUM Oslo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Ham-Kam and KFUM Oslo expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Ham-Kam and 0.99 for KFUM Oslo, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Ham-Kam vs KFUM Oslo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Ham-Kam come into this having played 29 games, going 8W 9D 12L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-L-L.
On the other side, KFUM Oslo sit at 1.17 PPG from 29 outings (8W 10D 11L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.14 PPG for Ham-Kam against 1.17 for KFUM Oslo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Ham-Kam's home form reads 4W 4D 6L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.14 PPG return.
Away from home, KFUM Oslo have taken 1.50 points per game from 14 outings (6W 3D 5L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ham-Kam are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; KFUM Oslo are on 1.14 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 29 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ham-Kam
Current Season
KFUM Oslo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ham-Kam and KFUM Oslo in coming into this match?
Ham-Kam have gone 8W 9D 12L in their last 29 games (1.14 PPG), while KFUM Oslo have gone 8W 10D 11L in their last 29 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ham-Kam at home or KFUM Oslo away?
KFUM Oslo's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ham-Kam at home: 1.14 PPG; KFUM Oslo away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ham-Kam won 4-0 on 19 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ham-Kam have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against KFUM Oslo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Ham-Kam
3
Draws
1
KFUM Oslo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and KFUM Oslo?
From 5 meetings on record, Ham-Kam have won 1, KFUM Oslo have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ham-Kam and KFUM Oslo last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Ham-Kam 4-0 KFUM Oslo.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ham-Kam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
KFUM Oslo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ham-Kam 29%, KFUM Oslo 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Ham-Kam) and 50% (KFUM Oslo).
On the defensive side: Ham-Kam keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Ham-Kam have failed to score in 43% of games; KFUM Oslo in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ham-Kam home games / KFUM Oslo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ham-Kam play KFUM Oslo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Ham-Kam's recent matches and 57% of KFUM Oslo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ham-Kam vs KFUM Oslo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Ham-Kam's recent games and 50% of KFUM Oslo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ham-Kam and KFUM Oslo tend to score early?
Ham-Kam have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, KFUM Oslo in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
KFUM Oslo cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Ham-Kam.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
KFUM Oslo beat Ham-Kam 0-2 at Briskeby Arena, Regular Season - 30, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ham-Kam 1.17 xG and KFUM Oslo 0.99 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Ham-Kam fell 1.2 short of their projected output. KFUM Oslo outscored their 0.99 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ham-Kam attack 0.82 / defence 0.94 against KFUM Oslo attack 0.84 / defence 0.95, drawn from 59/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ham-Kam 40% | Draw 29% | KFUM Oslo 31%, with Ham-Kam to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual KFUM Oslo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ham-Kam 38%, KFUM Oslo 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ham-Kam's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
KFUM Oslo's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ham-Kam 1.14 PPG, KFUM Oslo 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the KFUM Oslo win broke the near-deadlock. Ham-Kam (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. KFUM Oslo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.