Ham-Kam 5-0 Haugesund – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Ham-Kam at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ham-Kam vs Haugesund encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees Haugesund travel to Briskeby Arena to take on Ham-Kam. The game is scheduled for Sunday 23 November 2025, 13:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ham-Kam stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Ham-Kam's home record at Briskeby Arena: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Haugesund — All Games: 1W 1D 8L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Haugesund have posted 1W 1D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game.
Ham-Kam are in the better shape of the two on current Eliteserien data — 1.00 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Ham-Kam, 2 for Haugesund and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Jul 2025, ended 3–0 with Ham-Kam winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Ham-Kam in-play and half-time data (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Haugesund in-play and half-time data (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ham-Kam 48% versus Haugesund 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ham-Kam 48% | Haugesund 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ham-Kam 2.07 xG and Haugesund 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ham-Kam attack 0.980 / defence 0.994 | Haugesund attack 0.897 / defence 1.183. League average goals — home 1.781 / away 1.370. Data: 58 Ham-Kam games / 58 Haugesund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ham-Kam 57% | Draw 22% | Haugesund 22%. Fair-value odds: Ham-Kam 1.75 | Draw 4.55 | Haugesund 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Ham-Kam (57%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.07 / 1.22) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ham-Kam are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.29 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Ham-Kam 80% | Haugesund 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ham-Kam vs Haugesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Briskeby Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Nov 2025, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ham-Kam 57% | Draw 22% | Haugesund 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 62% | xG Ham-Kam 2.07 / Haugesund 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Ham-Kam attack 0.980 / def 0.994 | Haugesund attack 0.897 / def 1.183 | league avg home 1.781 / away 1.370 • Poisson stance: Ham-Kam (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.07
Ham-Kam xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Haugesund xG
62%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ham-Kam vs Haugesund kick off?
Ham-Kam vs Haugesund kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 23 November 2025 at Briskeby Arena.
What was the final score in Ham-Kam vs Haugesund?
Ham-Kam 5 - 0 Haugesund.
Where is Ham-Kam vs Haugesund being played?
The match is being played at Briskeby Arena.
What competition is Ham-Kam vs Haugesund part of?
Ham-Kam vs Haugesund is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Ham-Kam vs Haugesund?
Our statistical model gives Ham-Kam a 57% chance of winning, Haugesund a 22% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Ham-Kam the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ham-Kam vs Haugesund?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Ham-Kam and Haugesund will score (BTTS).
Will Ham-Kam vs Haugesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Haugesund?
Record (7 meetings): Ham-Kam 3W | Draws 2 | Haugesund 2W.
What form are Ham-Kam and Haugesund in?
Ham-Kam (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Haugesund (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Ham-Kam's attack rating (0.98) and Haugesund's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 2.07 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Haugesund's attack versus Ham-Kam's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ham-Kam Win
57%
1.77
22%
4.60
22%
4.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
2 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.07
Ham-Kam xG
Total xG
3.29
1.22
Haugesund xG
1.77
57%
Home win
4.60
22%
Draw
4.60
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.62
Clean Sheet
29%
3.39
13%
7.89
Win to Nil
17%
6.00
3%
36.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 9.4 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 6.7 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ham-Kam vs Haugesund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Ham-Kam and Haugesund expected to score?
The model projects 2.07 expected goals for Ham-Kam and 1.22 for Haugesund, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Ham-Kam vs Haugesund?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ham-Kam's recent record stands at 17W 16D 25L from 58 games, a 1.16 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-L in the last five.
Haugesund, meanwhile, have gone 11W 10D 37L across 58 games — 0.74 PPG, with L-L-L-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ham-Kam by 0.42 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Haugesund heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Ham-Kam have managed 10W 7D 12L from 29 games — 1.28 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Haugesund's away record stands at 3W 7D 19L across 29 trips, a 0.55 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ham-Kam come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ham-Kam are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Haugesund are on 0.86 scored and 1.97 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ham-Kam
Current Season
Haugesund
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ham-Kam and Haugesund in coming into this match?
Ham-Kam have gone 17W 16D 25L in their last 58 games (1.16 PPG), while Haugesund have gone 11W 10D 37L in their last 58 (0.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ham-Kam at home or Haugesund away?
Ham-Kam's home record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ham-Kam at home: 1.28 PPG; Haugesund away: 0.55 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ham-Kam and Haugesund runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 23 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Ham-Kam have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Nov 2025, when Ham-Kam won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ham-Kam's record when hosting Haugesund specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Ham-Kam
2
Draws
2
Haugesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Haugesund?
From 8 meetings on record, Ham-Kam have won 4, Haugesund have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ham-Kam and Haugesund last play each other?
They last met on 23 November 2025, when Ham-Kam 5-0 Haugesund.
Who has won more matches between Ham-Kam and Haugesund?
Ham-Kam have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ham-Kam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ham-Kam 52%, Haugesund 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Ham-Kam) and 59% (Haugesund).
On the defensive side: Ham-Kam have failed to score in 28% of games; Haugesund in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ham-Kam home games / Haugesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ham-Kam play Haugesund?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Ham-Kam's recent matches and 52% of Haugesund's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ham-Kam vs Haugesund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Ham-Kam's recent games and 59% of Haugesund's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ham-Kam and Haugesund tend to score early?
Ham-Kam have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Haugesund in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Ham-Kam run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Haugesund.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ham-Kam beat Haugesund 5-0 at Briskeby Arena, Regular Season - 29, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ham-Kam 2.07 xG and Haugesund 1.22 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Ham-Kam beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Haugesund landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ham-Kam attack 0.98 / defence 0.99 against Haugesund attack 0.90 / defence 1.18, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ham-Kam 57% | Draw 22% | Haugesund 22%, with Ham-Kam to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ham-Kam 48%, Haugesund 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ham-Kam's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Haugesund's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Ham-Kam arrived the stronger side — 1.16 PPG against 0.74. That form edge translated into the three points. Ham-Kam (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.28 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.34 average — tighter than their form line. Haugesund (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 2.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.