Ham-Kam 2-1 Aalesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ham-Kam at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ham-Kam vs Aalesund fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ham-Kam and Aalesund meet at Briskeby Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Friday 7 July 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Ham-Kam's overall Eliteserien record this term: 1W 1D 8L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Ham-Kam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ham-Kam's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at Briskeby Arena this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Ham-Kam are significantly better at Briskeby Arena than their overall form suggests.
Aalesund have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Aalesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Aalesund's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.40 vs 0.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Ham-Kam lead 0W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.0 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Oct 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Ham-Kam — key trading statistics (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Aalesund — key trading statistics (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ham-Kam 60% versus Aalesund 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ham-Kam 57% | Aalesund 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ham-Kam 1.38 xG and Aalesund 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ham-Kam attack 0.685 / defence 0.982 | Aalesund attack 0.693 / defence 1.178. League average goals — home 1.708 / away 1.233. Ham-Kam's attack strength of 0.685 is below the league average — the 1.38 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 42 Ham-Kam games / 42 Aalesund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ham-Kam 50% | Draw 28% | Aalesund 23%. Fair-value odds: Ham-Kam 2.00 | Draw 3.57 | Aalesund 4.35. Ham-Kam hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ham-Kam are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ham-Kam if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.22 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Ham-Kam 50% | Aalesund 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ham-Kam vs Aalesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Briskeby Arena • Kick-off: Friday 7 Jul 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ham-Kam 50% | Draw 28% | Aalesund 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 42% | xG Ham-Kam 1.38 / Aalesund 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Ham-Kam attack 0.685 / def 0.982 | Aalesund attack 0.693 / def 1.178 | league avg home 1.708 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Ham-Kam (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Ham-Kam xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Aalesund xG
42%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ham-Kam vs Aalesund kick off?
Ham-Kam vs Aalesund kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 7 July 2023 at Briskeby Arena.
What was the final score in Ham-Kam vs Aalesund?
Ham-Kam 2 - 1 Aalesund.
Where is Ham-Kam vs Aalesund being played?
The match is being played at Briskeby Arena.
What competition is Ham-Kam vs Aalesund part of?
Ham-Kam vs Aalesund is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Ham-Kam vs Aalesund?
Our statistical model gives Ham-Kam a 50% chance of winning, Aalesund a 23% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Ham-Kam the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ham-Kam vs Aalesund?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Ham-Kam and Aalesund will score (BTTS).
Will Ham-Kam vs Aalesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Aalesund?
Record (2 meetings): Ham-Kam 0W | Draws 2 | Aalesund 0W.
What form are Ham-Kam and Aalesund in?
Ham-Kam (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.60 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Aalesund (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Ham-Kam's attack rating (0.69) and Aalesund's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Aalesund's attack (0.69x) against Ham-Kam's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.4%), 0-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ham-Kam Win
50%
2.02
28%
3.62
23%
4.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Ham-Kam xG
Total xG
2.22
0.84
Aalesund xG
2.02
50%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
4.38
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.35
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
25%
3.97
Win to Nil
21%
4.67
6%
17.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 9.1 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.0 | 12.6 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 8.7 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ham-Kam vs Aalesund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Ham-Kam and Aalesund expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Ham-Kam and 0.84 for Aalesund, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Ham-Kam vs Aalesund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Ham-Kam come into this having played 42 games, going 8W 14D 20L for 0.90 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-L. The sample for Ham-Kam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Aalesund sit at 1.10 PPG from 42 outings (12W 10D 20L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Aalesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.90 PPG for Ham-Kam against 1.10 for Aalesund. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Ham-Kam's home form reads 6W 6D 8L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Aalesund have taken 0.80 points per game from 20 outings (4W 4D 12L).
Attack vs Defence
Ham-Kam are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Aalesund are on 0.95 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ham-Kam
Blended
Aalesund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ham-Kam and Aalesund in coming into this match?
Ham-Kam have gone 8W 14D 20L in their last 42 games (0.90 PPG), while Aalesund have gone 12W 10D 20L in their last 42 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ham-Kam at home or Aalesund away?
Ham-Kam's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ham-Kam at home: 1.20 PPG; Aalesund away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 29 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ham-Kam have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Aalesund — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Ham-Kam
3
Draws
0
Aalesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Aalesund?
From 5 meetings on record, Ham-Kam have won 2, Aalesund have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ham-Kam and Aalesund last play each other?
They last met on 29 May 2026, when Aalesund 2-2 Ham-Kam.
Who has won more matches between Ham-Kam and Aalesund?
Ham-Kam have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ham-Kam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Aalesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ham-Kam 45%, Aalesund 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Ham-Kam) and 65% (Aalesund).
On the defensive side: Ham-Kam keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Ham-Kam have failed to score in 35% of games; Aalesund in 55%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ham-Kam home games / Aalesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ham-Kam play Aalesund?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Ham-Kam's recent matches and 40% of Aalesund's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ham-Kam vs Aalesund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Ham-Kam's recent games and 65% of Aalesund's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ham-Kam and Aalesund tend to score early?
Ham-Kam have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Aalesund in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ham-Kam edge out Aalesund 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ham-Kam beat Aalesund 2-1 at Briskeby Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ham-Kam 1.38 xG and Aalesund 0.84 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ham-Kam attack 0.69 / defence 0.98 against Aalesund attack 0.69 / defence 1.18, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ham-Kam 50% | Draw 28% | Aalesund 23%, with Ham-Kam to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ham-Kam 57%, Aalesund 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ham-Kam's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Aalesund's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ham-Kam 0.90 PPG, Aalesund 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ham-Kam win broke the near-deadlock. Ham-Kam (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.