Fredrikstad 4-1 Stromsgodset – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stromsgodset at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fredrikstad vs Stromsgodset fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Fredrikstad host Stromsgodset at Nye Fredrikstad Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 16 May 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Stromsgodset have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Stromsgodset's form when playing away from home: 5W 0D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fredrikstad 1.06 xG and Stromsgodset 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fredrikstad attack 0.815 / defence 0.996 | Stromsgodset attack 0.863 / defence 1.032. League average goals — home 1.265 / away 1.385. Data: 7 Fredrikstad games / 37 Stromsgodset games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fredrikstad 33% | Draw 29% | Stromsgodset 39%. Fair-value odds: Fredrikstad 3.03 | Draw 3.45 | Stromsgodset 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stromsgodset are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stromsgodset offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.25 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fredrikstad vs Stromsgodset | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Nye Fredrikstad Stadion • Kick-off: Thursday 16 May 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fredrikstad 33% | Draw 29% | Stromsgodset 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG Fredrikstad 1.06 / Stromsgodset 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Fredrikstad attack 0.815 / def 0.996 | Stromsgodset attack 0.863 / def 1.032 | league avg home 1.265 / away 1.385 • Poisson stance: Stromsgodset (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Fredrikstad xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Stromsgodset xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fredrikstad vs Stromsgodset kick off?
Fredrikstad vs Stromsgodset kicked off at 17:00 on Thursday 16 May 2024 at Nye Fredrikstad Stadion.
What was the final score in Fredrikstad vs Stromsgodset?
Fredrikstad 4 - 1 Stromsgodset.
Where is Fredrikstad vs Stromsgodset being played?
The match is being played at Nye Fredrikstad Stadion.
What competition is Fredrikstad vs Stromsgodset part of?
Fredrikstad vs Stromsgodset is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Fredrikstad vs Stromsgodset?
Our statistical model gives Fredrikstad a 33% chance of winning, Stromsgodset a 39% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Stromsgodset the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fredrikstad vs Stromsgodset?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Fredrikstad and Stromsgodset will score (BTTS).
Will Fredrikstad vs Stromsgodset have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fredrikstad and Stromsgodset?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Fredrikstad and Stromsgodset in?
Stromsgodset (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Stromsgodset away split: 1.50 PPG from 10 | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Fredrikstad's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Stromsgodset's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.06. The same calculation in reverse, Stromsgodset's attack versus Fredrikstad's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 0-1 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stromsgodset Win
33%
3.07
29%
3.49
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Fredrikstad xG
Total xG
2.25
1.19
Stromsgodset xG
3.07
33%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
35%
2.90
Win to Nil
10%
10.10
13%
7.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 12.5 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.3 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.1 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fredrikstad vs Stromsgodset?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Fredrikstad and Stromsgodset expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Fredrikstad and 1.19 for Stromsgodset, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Fredrikstad vs Stromsgodset?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fredrikstad
Pre-Season
Stromsgodset
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 19 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Fredrikstad go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 May 2024, when Fredrikstad won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fredrikstad's record when hosting Stromsgodset specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Fredrikstad
0
Draws
1
Stromsgodset
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fredrikstad and Stromsgodset?
From 4 meetings on record, Fredrikstad have won 3, Stromsgodset have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Fredrikstad and Stromsgodset last play each other?
They last met on 19 October 2025, when Stromsgodset 0-3 Fredrikstad.
Who has won more matches between Fredrikstad and Stromsgodset?
Fredrikstad have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fredrikstad home games / Stromsgodset away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Fredrikstad run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Stromsgodset.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fredrikstad beat Stromsgodset 4-1 at Nye Fredrikstad Stadion, Regular Season - 8, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fredrikstad 1.06 xG and Stromsgodset 1.19 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Fredrikstad beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fredrikstad attack 0.81 / defence 1.00 against Stromsgodset attack 0.86 / defence 1.03, drawn from 7/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fredrikstad 33% | Draw 29% | Stromsgodset 39%, with Stromsgodset to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Fredrikstad win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.