Fredrikstad 3-1 Sandefjord – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fredrikstad at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fredrikstad vs Sandefjord encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Sandefjord travel to Fredrikstad Stadion to take on Fredrikstad. The game is scheduled for Monday 21 April 2025, 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Fredrikstad have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: L D D W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Fredrikstad have posted 5W 4D 1L at Fredrikstad Stadion — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Fredrikstad Stadion.
Sandefjord — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Sandefjord's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Fredrikstad carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Fredrikstad, 0 for Sandefjord and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 1 Dec 2024, ended 1–0 with Fredrikstad winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Fredrikstad trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Sandefjord trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fredrikstad 40% versus Sandefjord 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fredrikstad 40% | Sandefjord 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fredrikstad 2.01 xG and Sandefjord 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fredrikstad attack 1.110 / defence 0.750 | Sandefjord attack 1.003 / defence 1.122. League average goals — home 1.611 / away 1.186. Fredrikstad's defence rating of 0.750 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 33 Fredrikstad games / 32 Sandefjord games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Fredrikstad 63% | Draw 21% | Sandefjord 16%. Fair-value odds: Fredrikstad 1.59 | Draw 4.76 | Sandefjord 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Fredrikstad (63%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Fredrikstad as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.90 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Fredrikstad 40% | Sandefjord 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fredrikstad vs Sandefjord | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Fredrikstad Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 21 Apr 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fredrikstad 63% | Draw 21% | Sandefjord 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 51% | xG Fredrikstad 2.01 / Sandefjord 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Fredrikstad attack 1.110 / def 0.750 | Sandefjord attack 1.003 / def 1.122 | league avg home 1.611 / away 1.186 • Poisson stance: Fredrikstad (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.01
Fredrikstad xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Sandefjord xG
51%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fredrikstad vs Sandefjord kick off?
Fredrikstad vs Sandefjord kicked off at 16:00 on Monday 21 April 2025 at Fredrikstad Stadion.
What was the final score in Fredrikstad vs Sandefjord?
Fredrikstad 3 - 1 Sandefjord.
Where is Fredrikstad vs Sandefjord being played?
The match is being played at Fredrikstad Stadion.
What competition is Fredrikstad vs Sandefjord part of?
Fredrikstad vs Sandefjord is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Fredrikstad vs Sandefjord?
Our statistical model gives Fredrikstad a 63% chance of winning, Sandefjord a 16% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Fredrikstad the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fredrikstad vs Sandefjord?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Fredrikstad and Sandefjord will score (BTTS).
Will Fredrikstad vs Sandefjord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fredrikstad and Sandefjord?
Record (2 meetings): Fredrikstad 2W | Draws 0 | Sandefjord 0W.
What form are Fredrikstad and Sandefjord in?
Fredrikstad (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-W-W. Sandefjord (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Fredrikstad's attack rating (1.11) and Sandefjord's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 2.01 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sandefjord's attack versus Fredrikstad's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (33/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.1%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fredrikstad Win
63%
1.58
21%
4.81
16%
6.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.01
Fredrikstad xG
Total xG
2.90
0.89
Sandefjord xG
1.58
63%
Home win
4.81
21%
Draw
6.28
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
13%
7.43
Win to Nil
26%
3.85
2%
46.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.1 | 9.9 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.9 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.4 | 6.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fredrikstad vs Sandefjord?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Fredrikstad and Sandefjord expected to score?
The model projects 2.01 expected goals for Fredrikstad and 0.89 for Sandefjord, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Fredrikstad vs Sandefjord?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Fredrikstad's recent record stands at 14W 9D 7L from 30 games, a 1.70 PPG return, with L-D-D-W-W in the last five.
Sandefjord, meanwhile, have gone 9W 7D 14L across 30 games — 1.13 PPG, with W-L-W-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fredrikstad by 0.57 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sandefjord heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Fredrikstad have managed 7W 6D 2L from 15 games — 1.80 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sandefjord's away record stands at 2W 5D 8L across 15 trips, a 0.73 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fredrikstad come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Fredrikstad are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Sandefjord are on 1.37 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sandefjord in 63%.
Defensively: Fredrikstad have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fredrikstad
Current Season
Sandefjord
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fredrikstad and Sandefjord in coming into this match?
Fredrikstad have gone 14W 9D 7L in their last 30 games (1.70 PPG), while Sandefjord have gone 9W 7D 14L in their last 30 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fredrikstad at home or Sandefjord away?
Fredrikstad's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fredrikstad at home: 1.80 PPG; Sandefjord away: 0.73 PPG.
Have Fredrikstad or Sandefjord been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fredrikstad have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Sandefjord in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Fredrikstad's record when hosting Sandefjord specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Fredrikstad
2
Draws
0
Sandefjord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fredrikstad and Sandefjord?
From 6 meetings on record, Fredrikstad have won 4, Sandefjord have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fredrikstad and Sandefjord last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when Fredrikstad 1-0 Sandefjord.
Who has won more matches between Fredrikstad and Sandefjord?
Fredrikstad have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fredrikstad see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fredrikstad 40%, Sandefjord 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Fredrikstad) and 60% (Sandefjord).
On the defensive side: Fredrikstad keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Fredrikstad have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fredrikstad home games / Sandefjord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fredrikstad play Sandefjord?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Fredrikstad's recent matches and 67% of Sandefjord's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fredrikstad vs Sandefjord usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Fredrikstad's recent games and 60% of Sandefjord's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fredrikstad and Sandefjord tend to score early?
Fredrikstad have had a goal before half-time in 47% of their recent matches, Sandefjord in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fredrikstad cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Sandefjord.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fredrikstad beat Sandefjord 3-1 at Fredrikstad Stadion, Regular Season - 3, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fredrikstad 2.01 xG and Sandefjord 0.89 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Fredrikstad beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fredrikstad attack 1.11 / defence 0.75 against Sandefjord attack 1.00 / defence 1.12, drawn from 33/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Fredrikstad 63% | Draw 21% | Sandefjord 16%, with Fredrikstad to win its most likely call at 63%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fredrikstad 40%, Sandefjord 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fredrikstad's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Sandefjord's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Fredrikstad arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.13. Form held, and they took the win. Fredrikstad (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm. Sandefjord (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.