Fredrikstad 2-2 Rosenborg – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Fredrikstad at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fredrikstad vs Rosenborg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Nye Fredrikstad Stadion plays host to Fredrikstad versus Rosenborg in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Saturday 27 July 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Fredrikstad have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: L D L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Fredrikstad, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Fredrikstad have posted 2W 3D 1L at Nye Fredrikstad Stadion — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 6 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Nye Fredrikstad Stadion.
Rosenborg (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: W D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Rosenborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rosenborg away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Fredrikstad's 1.80 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Rosenborg's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Fredrikstad, 0 for Rosenborg and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Jun 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Fredrikstad goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (15 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
Rosenborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (15 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fredrikstad 40% versus Rosenborg 73%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fredrikstad 40% | Rosenborg 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fredrikstad 1.79 xG and Rosenborg 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fredrikstad attack 0.828 / defence 0.830 | Rosenborg attack 1.030 / defence 1.536. League average goals — home 1.405 / away 1.374. Rosenborg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.536 — this is suppressing Fredrikstad's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 15 Fredrikstad games / 44 Rosenborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fredrikstad 51% | Draw 24% | Rosenborg 25%. Fair-value odds: Fredrikstad 1.96 | Draw 4.17 | Rosenborg 4.00. Fredrikstad hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fredrikstad at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fredrikstad if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.96 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Fredrikstad 33% | Rosenborg 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fredrikstad vs Rosenborg | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Nye Fredrikstad Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Jul 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fredrikstad 51% | Draw 24% | Rosenborg 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 58% | xG Fredrikstad 1.79 / Rosenborg 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Fredrikstad attack 0.828 / def 0.830 | Rosenborg attack 1.030 / def 1.536 | league avg home 1.405 / away 1.374 • Poisson stance: Fredrikstad (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Fredrikstad xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Rosenborg xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fredrikstad vs Rosenborg kick off?
Fredrikstad vs Rosenborg kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 27 July 2024 at Nye Fredrikstad Stadion.
What was the final score in Fredrikstad vs Rosenborg?
Fredrikstad 2 - 2 Rosenborg.
Where is Fredrikstad vs Rosenborg being played?
The match is being played at Nye Fredrikstad Stadion.
What competition is Fredrikstad vs Rosenborg part of?
Fredrikstad vs Rosenborg is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Fredrikstad vs Rosenborg?
Our statistical model gives Fredrikstad a 51% chance of winning, Rosenborg a 25% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Fredrikstad the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fredrikstad vs Rosenborg?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Fredrikstad and Rosenborg will score (BTTS).
Will Fredrikstad vs Rosenborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fredrikstad and Rosenborg?
Record (1 meetings): Fredrikstad 0W | Draws 1 | Rosenborg 0W.
What form are Fredrikstad and Rosenborg in?
Fredrikstad (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-L-D-W. Rosenborg (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.50 | L5 W-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Fredrikstad's attack at 0.83x the league average against Rosenborg's defence at 1.54x — combine the two and it projects 1.79 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Rosenborg's attack (1.03x) against Fredrikstad's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 15/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fredrikstad Win
51%
1.95
24%
4.14
25%
4.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Fredrikstad xG
Total xG
2.96
1.18
Rosenborg xG
1.95
51%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
4.06
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
17%
5.97
Win to Nil
16%
6.32
4%
24.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 6.1 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 10.9 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fredrikstad vs Rosenborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Fredrikstad and Rosenborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Fredrikstad and 1.18 for Rosenborg, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Fredrikstad vs Rosenborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Fredrikstad's recent record stands at 7W 5D 3L from 15 games, a 1.73 PPG return, with L-D-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Fredrikstad is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rosenborg, meanwhile, have gone 6W 2D 7L across 15 games — 1.33 PPG, with W-D-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Rosenborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.73 PPG for Fredrikstad against 1.33 for Rosenborg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Fredrikstad have managed 2W 3D 1L from 6 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rosenborg's away record stands at 1W 1D 4L across 6 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.33 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rosenborg's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fredrikstad come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Fredrikstad are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Rosenborg are on 1.67 scored and 1.87 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rosenborg in 73%.
Defensively: Fredrikstad have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 15 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fredrikstad
Blended
Rosenborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fredrikstad and Rosenborg in coming into this match?
Fredrikstad have gone 7W 5D 3L in their last 15 games (1.73 PPG), while Rosenborg have gone 6W 2D 7L in their last 15 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fredrikstad at home or Rosenborg away?
Fredrikstad's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fredrikstad at home: 1.50 PPG; Rosenborg away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Fredrikstad or Rosenborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fredrikstad have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Rosenborg in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 27 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Rosenborg go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rosenborg won 4-0 on 27 Jul 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fredrikstad have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Rosenborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Fredrikstad
2
Draws
3
Rosenborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fredrikstad and Rosenborg?
From 5 meetings on record, Fredrikstad have won 0, Rosenborg have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fredrikstad and Rosenborg last play each other?
They last met on 27 July 2026, when Rosenborg 4-0 Fredrikstad.
Who has won more matches between Fredrikstad and Rosenborg?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fredrikstad see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fredrikstad 33%, Rosenborg 83% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 33% for Fredrikstad and 100% for Rosenborg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 83% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fredrikstad keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Fredrikstad have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fredrikstad home games / Rosenborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fredrikstad play Rosenborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 33% of Fredrikstad's games and 83% of Rosenborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fredrikstad vs Rosenborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 33% of Fredrikstad's matches and 100% of Rosenborg's.
Do Fredrikstad and Rosenborg tend to score early?
Fredrikstad have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Rosenborg in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fredrikstad and Rosenborg share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Nye Fredrikstad Stadion, Regular Season - 16, as Fredrikstad and Rosenborg drew 2-2 in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fredrikstad 1.79 xG and Rosenborg 1.18 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Rosenborg outscored their 1.18 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fredrikstad attack 0.83 / defence 0.83 against Rosenborg attack 1.03 / defence 1.54, drawn from 15/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fredrikstad 51% | Draw 24% | Rosenborg 25%, with Fredrikstad to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fredrikstad 40%, Rosenborg 73%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fredrikstad's trading profile (15 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Rosenborg's trading profile (15 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fredrikstad 1.73 PPG, Rosenborg 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Fredrikstad (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Rosenborg (home/away splits) conceded 2 against a 2.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.