Fredrikstad 0-0 KFUM Oslo – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates KFUM Oslo at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fredrikstad vs KFUM Oslo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Fredrikstad and KFUM Oslo meet at Nye Fredrikstad Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 4 August 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Fredrikstad's overall Eliteserien record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D L D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Fredrikstad, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fredrikstad's home record at Nye Fredrikstad Stadion: 2W 4D 1L from 7 Eliteserien appearances (1.43 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 7 games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
KFUM Oslo have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L L W W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for KFUM Oslo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
KFUM Oslo's away record: 5W 2D 1L from 8 road trips in Eliteserien this season (2.12 PPG). They are averaging 1.88 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.12 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Fredrikstad lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 12 May 2024, ended 4–1 with Fredrikstad winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Fredrikstad — key trading statistics (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
KFUM Oslo — key trading statistics (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fredrikstad 44% versus KFUM Oslo 75%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fredrikstad 44% | KFUM Oslo 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fredrikstad 1.17 xG and KFUM Oslo 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fredrikstad attack 0.840 / defence 0.930 | KFUM Oslo attack 1.130 / defence 0.964. League average goals — home 1.443 / away 1.371. Data: 16 Fredrikstad games / 16 KFUM Oslo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fredrikstad 30% | Draw 27% | KFUM Oslo 43%. Fair-value odds: Fredrikstad 3.33 | Draw 3.70 | KFUM Oslo 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates KFUM Oslo as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on KFUM Oslo if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.61 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Fredrikstad 43% | KFUM Oslo 75% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fredrikstad vs KFUM Oslo | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Nye Fredrikstad Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Aug 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fredrikstad 30% | Draw 27% | KFUM Oslo 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Fredrikstad 1.17 / KFUM Oslo 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Fredrikstad attack 0.840 / def 0.930 | KFUM Oslo attack 1.130 / def 0.964 | league avg home 1.443 / away 1.371 • Poisson stance: KFUM Oslo (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Fredrikstad xG
Expected Goals
1.44
KFUM Oslo xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fredrikstad vs KFUM Oslo kick off?
Fredrikstad vs KFUM Oslo kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 4 August 2024 at Nye Fredrikstad Stadion.
What was the final score in Fredrikstad vs KFUM Oslo?
Fredrikstad 0 - 0 KFUM Oslo.
Where is Fredrikstad vs KFUM Oslo being played?
The match is being played at Nye Fredrikstad Stadion.
What competition is Fredrikstad vs KFUM Oslo part of?
Fredrikstad vs KFUM Oslo is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Fredrikstad vs KFUM Oslo?
Our statistical model gives Fredrikstad a 30% chance of winning, KFUM Oslo a 43% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making KFUM Oslo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fredrikstad vs KFUM Oslo?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Fredrikstad and KFUM Oslo will score (BTTS).
Will Fredrikstad vs KFUM Oslo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fredrikstad and KFUM Oslo?
Record (1 meetings): Fredrikstad 1W | Draws 0 | KFUM Oslo 0W.
What form are Fredrikstad and KFUM Oslo in?
Fredrikstad (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-D-W-D. KFUM Oslo (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Fredrikstad's attack rating (0.84) and KFUM Oslo's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — KFUM Oslo's attack (1.13x) against Fredrikstad's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.44.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.0%), 0-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
KFUM Oslo Win
30%
3.31
27%
3.71
43%
2.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Fredrikstad xG
Total xG
2.61
1.44
KFUM Oslo xG
3.31
30%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
2.33
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
24%
4.22
31%
3.22
Win to Nil
7%
14.00
13%
7.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 10.6 | 7.6 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.4 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.2 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fredrikstad vs KFUM Oslo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Fredrikstad and KFUM Oslo expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Fredrikstad and 1.44 for KFUM Oslo, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Fredrikstad vs KFUM Oslo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 16 outings, Fredrikstad have picked up 1.69 PPG on a 7W 6D 3L record — D-L-D-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Fredrikstad is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
KFUM Oslo's form line: 5W 7D 4L from 16 games, 1.38 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-D. The sample for KFUM Oslo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.69 PPG for Fredrikstad against 1.38 for KFUM Oslo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Fredrikstad have posted 1.43 PPG from 7 outings (2W 4D 1L).
On the road, KFUM Oslo have gone 5W 1D 1L from 7 away games — 2.29 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 1.38 PPG overall record — KFUM Oslo travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, KFUM Oslo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Fredrikstad are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; KFUM Oslo are on 1.44 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: KFUM Oslo in 75%.
Defensively: Fredrikstad have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fredrikstad
Blended
KFUM Oslo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fredrikstad and KFUM Oslo in coming into this match?
Fredrikstad have gone 7W 6D 3L in their last 16 games (1.69 PPG), while KFUM Oslo have gone 5W 7D 4L in their last 16 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fredrikstad at home or KFUM Oslo away?
KFUM Oslo's away record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fredrikstad at home: 1.43 PPG; KFUM Oslo away: 2.29 PPG.
Have Fredrikstad or KFUM Oslo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fredrikstad have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, KFUM Oslo in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fredrikstad won 1-4 on 12 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fredrikstad have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against KFUM Oslo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Fredrikstad
1
Draws
1
KFUM Oslo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fredrikstad and KFUM Oslo?
From 5 meetings on record, Fredrikstad have won 3, KFUM Oslo have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fredrikstad and KFUM Oslo last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Fredrikstad 3-1 KFUM Oslo.
Who has won more matches between Fredrikstad and KFUM Oslo?
Fredrikstad have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fredrikstad see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
KFUM Oslo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fredrikstad 43%, KFUM Oslo 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Fredrikstad) and 71% (KFUM Oslo). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fredrikstad keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Fredrikstad have failed to score in 43% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fredrikstad home games / KFUM Oslo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fredrikstad play KFUM Oslo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 43% of Fredrikstad's games and 71% of KFUM Oslo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fredrikstad vs KFUM Oslo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 43% of Fredrikstad's matches and 71% of KFUM Oslo's.
Do Fredrikstad and KFUM Oslo tend to score early?
Fredrikstad have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, KFUM Oslo in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Fredrikstad's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fredrikstad and KFUM Oslo finished level at 0-0 at Nye Fredrikstad Stadion, Regular Season - 17, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fredrikstad 1.17 xG and KFUM Oslo 1.44 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Fredrikstad fell 1.2 short of their projected output. KFUM Oslo landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fredrikstad attack 0.84 / defence 0.93 against KFUM Oslo attack 1.13 / defence 0.96, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fredrikstad 30% | Draw 27% | KFUM Oslo 43%, with KFUM Oslo to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fredrikstad 44%, KFUM Oslo 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fredrikstad's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
KFUM Oslo's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fredrikstad 1.69 PPG, KFUM Oslo 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Fredrikstad (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. KFUM Oslo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.