Fredrikstad 2-1 Ham-Kam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fredrikstad at 51% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fredrikstad vs Ham-Kam encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Fredrikstad Stadion plays host to Fredrikstad versus Ham-Kam in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Saturday 16 May 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Fredrikstad's overall Eliteserien record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D W W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Fredrikstad's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Fredrikstad Stadion this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Ham-Kam have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W W L W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Ham-Kam's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Fredrikstad, 0 for Ham-Kam and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 4 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Oct 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Fredrikstad — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Ham-Kam — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fredrikstad 42% versus Ham-Kam 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fredrikstad 40% | Ham-Kam 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fredrikstad 1.74 xG and Ham-Kam 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fredrikstad attack 0.970 / defence 1.058 | Ham-Kam attack 0.969 / defence 1.084. League average goals — home 1.658 / away 1.123. Data: 38 Fredrikstad games / 37 Ham-Kam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fredrikstad 51% | Draw 24% | Ham-Kam 25%. Fair-value odds: Fredrikstad 1.96 | Draw 4.17 | Ham-Kam 4.00. Fredrikstad hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fredrikstad are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fredrikstad if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.90 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Fredrikstad 70% | Ham-Kam 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fredrikstad vs Ham-Kam | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Fredrikstad Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 16 May 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fredrikstad 51% | Draw 24% | Ham-Kam 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 56% | xG Fredrikstad 1.74 / Ham-Kam 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Fredrikstad attack 0.970 / def 1.058 | Ham-Kam attack 0.969 / def 1.084 | league avg home 1.658 / away 1.123 • Poisson stance: Fredrikstad (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Fredrikstad xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Ham-Kam xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fredrikstad vs Ham-Kam kick off?
Fredrikstad vs Ham-Kam kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 16 May 2026 at Fredrikstad Stadion.
What was the final score in Fredrikstad vs Ham-Kam?
Fredrikstad 2 - 1 Ham-Kam.
Where is Fredrikstad vs Ham-Kam being played?
The match is being played at Fredrikstad Stadion.
What competition is Fredrikstad vs Ham-Kam part of?
Fredrikstad vs Ham-Kam is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Fredrikstad vs Ham-Kam?
Our statistical model gives Fredrikstad a 51% chance of winning, Ham-Kam a 25% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Fredrikstad the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fredrikstad vs Ham-Kam?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Fredrikstad and Ham-Kam will score (BTTS).
Will Fredrikstad vs Ham-Kam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fredrikstad and Ham-Kam?
Record (4 meetings): Fredrikstad 2W | Draws 2 | Ham-Kam 0W.
What form are Fredrikstad and Ham-Kam in?
Fredrikstad (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-L-L. Ham-Kam (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Fredrikstad's attack rating (0.97) and Ham-Kam's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.74 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Ham-Kam's attack (0.97x) against Fredrikstad's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 38/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fredrikstad Win
51%
1.95
24%
4.23
25%
3.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Fredrikstad xG
Total xG
2.90
1.15
Ham-Kam xG
1.95
51%
Home win
4.23
24%
Draw
3.98
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
17%
5.72
Win to Nil
16%
6.18
4%
22.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 6.4 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 11.1 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fredrikstad vs Ham-Kam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Fredrikstad and Ham-Kam expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Fredrikstad and 1.15 for Ham-Kam, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Fredrikstad vs Ham-Kam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Fredrikstad's recent record stands at 25W 18D 17L from 60 games, a 1.55 PPG return, with D-W-W-L-L in the last five.
Ham-Kam, meanwhile, have gone 18W 16D 26L across 60 games — 1.17 PPG, with W-W-L-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.55 PPG for Fredrikstad against 1.17 for Ham-Kam. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Fredrikstad have managed 14W 10D 6L from 30 games — 1.73 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ham-Kam's away record stands at 7W 9D 14L across 30 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fredrikstad come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Fredrikstad are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Ham-Kam are on 1.27 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Defensively: Fredrikstad have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fredrikstad
Current Season
Ham-Kam
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fredrikstad and Ham-Kam in coming into this match?
Fredrikstad have gone 25W 18D 17L in their last 60 games (1.55 PPG), while Ham-Kam have gone 18W 16D 26L in their last 60 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fredrikstad at home or Ham-Kam away?
Fredrikstad's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fredrikstad at home: 1.73 PPG; Ham-Kam away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Fredrikstad or Ham-Kam been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fredrikstad have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Ham-Kam in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 16 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fredrikstad have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Ham-Kam — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Fredrikstad
2
Draws
0
Ham-Kam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fredrikstad and Ham-Kam?
From 5 meetings on record, Fredrikstad have won 3, Ham-Kam have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fredrikstad and Ham-Kam last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Fredrikstad 2-1 Ham-Kam.
Who has won more matches between Fredrikstad and Ham-Kam?
Fredrikstad have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fredrikstad are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Ham-Kam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fredrikstad 47%, Ham-Kam 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Fredrikstad) and 50% (Ham-Kam).
On the defensive side: Fredrikstad keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Fredrikstad have failed to score in 30% of games; Ham-Kam in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fredrikstad home games / Ham-Kam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fredrikstad play Ham-Kam?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Fredrikstad's recent matches and 47% of Ham-Kam's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fredrikstad vs Ham-Kam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Fredrikstad's recent games and 50% of Ham-Kam's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fredrikstad and Ham-Kam tend to score early?
Fredrikstad have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Ham-Kam in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fredrikstad edge out Ham-Kam 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fredrikstad beat Ham-Kam 2-1 at Fredrikstad Stadion, Regular Season - 9, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fredrikstad 1.74 xG and Ham-Kam 1.15 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fredrikstad attack 0.97 / defence 1.06 against Ham-Kam attack 0.97 / defence 1.08, drawn from 38/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fredrikstad 51% | Draw 24% | Ham-Kam 25%, with Fredrikstad to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fredrikstad 40%, Ham-Kam 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fredrikstad's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Ham-Kam's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fredrikstad 1.55 PPG, Ham-Kam 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fredrikstad win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.