Brann 2-1 Start – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Brann at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Brann vs Start encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Start travel to Brann Stadion to take on Brann. The game is scheduled for Sunday 12 July 2026, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Brann stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Brann, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Brann have posted 5W 1D 4L at Brann Stadion — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Start have recorded 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Start, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Start have gone 0W 1D 6L from 7 away fixtures this term (0.14 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Brann have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Both teams score in over 71% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Brann have won 0, Start 0, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Dec 2020, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Brann trading profile (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Start trading profile (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Brann 83% and Start 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Brann 83% | Start 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brann 2.25 xG and Start 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brann attack 0.907 / defence 1.077 | Start attack 0.894 / defence 1.423. League average goals — home 1.747 / away 1.186. Start bring a strong defensive rating of 1.423 — this is suppressing Brann's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 42 Brann games / 12 Start games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Brann 62% | Draw 20% | Start 18%. Fair-value odds: Brann 1.61 | Draw 5.00 | Start 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Brann (62%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.40. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.40 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.25 / 1.14) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Brann as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.40 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Brann 80% | Start 71% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brann vs Start | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Brann Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Jul 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brann 62% | Draw 20% | Start 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 61% | xG Brann 2.25 / Start 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Brann attack 0.907 / def 1.077 | Start attack 0.894 / def 1.423 | league avg home 1.747 / away 1.186 • Poisson stance: Brann (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.25
Brann xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Start xG
61%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brann vs Start kick off?
Brann vs Start kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 12 July 2026 at Brann Stadion.
What was the final score in Brann vs Start?
Brann 2 - 1 Start.
Where is Brann vs Start being played?
The match is being played at Brann Stadion.
What competition is Brann vs Start part of?
Brann vs Start is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Brann vs Start?
Our statistical model gives Brann a 62% chance of winning, Start a 18% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Brann the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brann vs Start?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Brann and Start will score (BTTS).
Will Brann vs Start have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Start?
Record (2 meetings): Brann 0W | Draws 2 | Start 0W.
What form are Brann and Start in?
Brann (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Start (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.50 | L5 D-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Brann's attack rating (0.91) and Start's defence rating (1.42), the model arrives at 2.25 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Start's attack versus Brann's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Brann Win
62%
1.61
20%
4.94
18%
5.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
2 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.25
Brann xG
Total xG
3.40
1.14
Start xG
1.61
62%
Home win
4.94
20%
Draw
5.64
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
32%
3.13
10%
9.54
Win to Nil
20%
5.05
2%
53.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 8.6 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 7.3 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brann vs Start?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Brann and Start expected to score?
The model projects 2.25 expected goals for Brann and 1.14 for Start, a combined total of 3.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Brann vs Start?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Brann's recent record stands at 4W 1D 7L from 12 games, a 1.08 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Brann is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Start, meanwhile, have gone 1W 4D 7L across 12 games — 0.58 PPG, with D-L-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Start is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Brann by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Start heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Brann have managed 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — 1.20 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Start's away record stands at 0W 0D 5L across 5 trips, a 0.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.58 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Start's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Brann come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Brann are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Start are on 1.08 scored and 2.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Brann have seen both teams score in 83% of their recent games; Start in 75%.
Last 12 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brann
Blended
Start
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Brann and Start in coming into this match?
Brann have gone 4W 1D 7L in their last 12 games (1.08 PPG), while Start have gone 1W 4D 7L in their last 12 (0.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brann at home or Start away?
Brann's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brann at home: 1.20 PPG; Start away: 0.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 12 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Brann's record when hosting Start specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Brann
2
Draws
0
Start
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Start?
From 3 meetings on record, Brann have won 1, Start have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Brann and Start last play each other?
They last met on 12 July 2026, when Brann 2-1 Start.
Who has won more matches between Brann and Start?
Brann have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Brann are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Start are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Brann at 80%, Start at 80%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Brann and 100% for Start. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brann home games / Start away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Brann play Start?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Brann's games and 80% of Start's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Brann vs Start usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Brann's matches and 100% of Start's.
Do Brann and Start tend to score early?
Brann have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Start in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Brann edge out Start 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brann beat Start 2-1 at Brann Stadion, Regular Season - 13, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brann 2.25 xG and Start 1.14 xG, a combined 3.40. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brann attack 0.91 / defence 1.08 against Start attack 0.89 / defence 1.42, drawn from 42/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brann 62% | Draw 20% | Start 18%, with Brann to win its most likely call at 62%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brann 83%, Start 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 79%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brann's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did.
Start's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Brann arrived the stronger side — 1.08 PPG against 0.58. Form held, and they took the win. Start (home/away splits) conceded 2 against a 3.60 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.