Brann 1-1 Stabaek – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Brann at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Brann vs Stabaek fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Brann Stadion plays host to Brann versus Stabaek in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Sunday 17 October 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Brann (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Brann, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Brann have posted 3W 3D 4L at Brann Stadion — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Stabaek have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Stabaek, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stabaek's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Brann, 1.10 for Stabaek — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Brann register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Stabaek in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Brann 1W, Stabaek 1W, 1D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 May 2021, ended 0–2 with Stabaek winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Brann goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 79% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 84% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Stabaek goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Brann 72% and Stabaek 55% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Brann 59% | Stabaek 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brann 1.92 xG and Stabaek 1.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brann attack 0.961 / defence 1.207 | Stabaek attack 1.199 / defence 1.122. League average goals — home 1.782 / away 1.275. Data: 51 Brann games / 51 Stabaek games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Brann 39% | Draw 25% | Stabaek 36%. Fair-value odds: Brann 2.56 | Draw 4.00 | Stabaek 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 74% | Total xG 3.77. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.77 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 74% reflects that both xG figures (1.92 / 1.84) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Brann as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Brann if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.77 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 73% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 74% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Brann 80% | Stabaek 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brann vs Stabaek | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Brann Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Oct 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brann 39% | Draw 25% | Stabaek 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 74% | xG Brann 1.92 / Stabaek 1.84 • Poisson strength factors: Brann attack 0.961 / def 1.207 | Stabaek attack 1.199 / def 1.122 | league avg home 1.782 / away 1.275 • Poisson stance: Brann (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.92
Brann xG
Expected Goals
1.84
Stabaek xG
74%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brann vs Stabaek kick off?
Brann vs Stabaek kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 17 October 2021 at Brann Stadion.
What was the final score in Brann vs Stabaek?
Brann 1 - 1 Stabaek.
Where is Brann vs Stabaek being played?
The match is being played at Brann Stadion.
What competition is Brann vs Stabaek part of?
Brann vs Stabaek is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Brann vs Stabaek?
Our statistical model gives Brann a 39% chance of winning, Stabaek a 36% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Brann the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brann vs Stabaek?
Our model estimates a 74% probability that both Brann and Stabaek will score (BTTS).
Will Brann vs Stabaek have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Stabaek?
Record (3 meetings): Brann 1W | Draws 1 | Stabaek 1W.
What form are Brann and Stabaek in?
Brann (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-D-W-D. Stabaek (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Brann's attack at 0.96x the league average against Stabaek's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.92 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Stabaek's attack (1.20x) against Brann's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.84.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (7.9%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Brann Win
39%
2.56
25%
4.00
36%
2.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
7.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.92
Brann xG
Total xG
3.77
1.84
Stabaek xG
2.56
39%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
2.78
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
74%
BTTS Yes
1.36
26%
BTTS No
3.80
Clean Sheet
16%
6.33
15%
6.84
Win to Nil
6%
16.21
5%
19.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 8.2 | 7.6 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.9 | 7.3 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 5.1 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brann vs Stabaek?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are Brann and Stabaek expected to score?
The model projects 1.92 expected goals for Brann and 1.84 for Stabaek, a combined total of 3.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Brann vs Stabaek?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Brann's recent record stands at 13W 15D 23L from 51 games, a 1.06 PPG return, with L-W-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for Brann is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stabaek, meanwhile, have gone 13W 17D 21L across 51 games — 1.10 PPG, with L-L-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for Stabaek is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.06 PPG for Brann against 1.10 for Stabaek. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Brann have managed 7W 8D 10L from 25 games — 1.16 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Stabaek's away record stands at 6W 8D 11L across 25 trips, a 1.04 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Brann are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Stabaek are on 1.31 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Brann have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games.
Last 51 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brann
Blended
Stabaek
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Brann and Stabaek in coming into this match?
Brann have gone 13W 15D 23L in their last 51 games (1.06 PPG), while Stabaek have gone 13W 17D 21L in their last 51 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brann at home or Stabaek away?
Brann's home record (1.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brann at home: 1.16 PPG; Stabaek away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 September 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Brann go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Brann won 4-1 on 16 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Brann have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Stabaek — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Brann
2
Draws
1
Stabaek
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Stabaek?
From 6 meetings on record, Brann have won 3, Stabaek have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Brann and Stabaek last play each other?
They last met on 17 September 2023, when Stabaek 0-1 Brann.
Who has won more matches between Brann and Stabaek?
Brann have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Brann see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Stabaek are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 84% for Brann, 68% for Stabaek — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Brann and 76% for Stabaek. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brann home games / Stabaek away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Brann play Stabaek?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 84% of Brann's games and 68% of Stabaek's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Brann vs Stabaek usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Brann's matches and 76% of Stabaek's.
Do Brann and Stabaek tend to score early?
Brann have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Stabaek in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Brann and Stabaek share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brann and Stabaek finished level at 1-1 at Brann Stadion, Regular Season - 22, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brann 1.92 xG and Stabaek 1.84 xG, a combined 3.77. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Brann fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Stabaek landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brann attack 0.96 / defence 1.21 against Stabaek attack 1.20 / defence 1.12, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brann 39% | Draw 25% | Stabaek 36%, with Brann to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 74% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brann 59%, Stabaek 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brann's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
Stabaek's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Brann 1.06 PPG, Stabaek 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Stabaek (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.08 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.