Brann vs Sarpsborg 08 FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Brann at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Brann vs Sarpsborg 08 FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Brann and Sarpsborg 08 FF meet at Brann Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 30. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 28 November 2021 at 00:00 UTC.
Current Form
Brann's overall Eliteserien record this term: 2W 6D 2L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D L L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Brann, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Brann's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 games at Brann Stadion this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sarpsborg 08 FF have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W W W W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.80. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Sarpsborg 08 FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Sarpsborg 08 FF have posted 3W 0D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Brann, 1.60 for Sarpsborg 08 FF — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Brann have seen both teams score in 90% of their games, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Brann, 0 for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Jun 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Brann — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 79% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Sarpsborg 08 FF — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Brann 72% and Sarpsborg 08 FF 51% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Brann 58% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brann 1.65 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brann attack 0.848 / defence 1.216 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.023 / defence 1.077. League average goals — home 1.803 / away 1.224. Data: 57 Brann games / 57 Sarpsborg 08 FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Brann 38% | Draw 29% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 33%. Fair-value odds: Brann 2.63 | Draw 3.45 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.65 / 1.52) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Brann as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Brann if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.17 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate: Brann 90% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brann vs Sarpsborg 08 FF | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Brann Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Nov 2021, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brann 38% | Draw 29% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 66% | xG Brann 1.65 / Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Brann attack 0.848 / def 1.216 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.023 / def 1.077 | league avg home 1.803 / away 1.224 • Poisson stance: Brann (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Brann xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brann vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kick off?
Brann vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kicked off at 00:00 on Sunday 28 November 2021 at Brann Stadion.
Where is Brann vs Sarpsborg 08 FF being played?
The match is being played at Brann Stadion.
What competition is Brann vs Sarpsborg 08 FF part of?
Brann vs Sarpsborg 08 FF is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Brann vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our statistical model gives Brann a 38% chance of winning, Sarpsborg 08 FF a 33% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Brann the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brann vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Brann and Sarpsborg 08 FF will score (BTTS).
Will Brann vs Sarpsborg 08 FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Record (2 meetings): Brann 0W | Draws 2 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 0W.
What form are Brann and Sarpsborg 08 FF in?
Brann (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-D-D. Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Brann's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Sarpsborg 08 FF's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.65. Flip it around — Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack (1.02x) against Brann's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.52.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Brann Win
38%
2.61
29%
3.49
33%
3.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Brann xG
Total xG
3.17
1.52
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
2.61
38%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
3.03
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.91
Clean Sheet
22%
4.59
19%
5.18
Win to Nil
8%
11.98
6%
15.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 6.4 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 10.5 | 8.0 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.7 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.8 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brann vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Brann and Sarpsborg 08 FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Brann and 1.52 for Sarpsborg 08 FF, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Brann vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Brann come into this having played 57 games, going 13W 19D 25L for 1.02 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-D-D. The sample for Brann is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sarpsborg 08 FF sit at 1.19 PPG from 57 outings (18W 14D 25L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Sarpsborg 08 FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.02 PPG for Brann against 1.19 for Sarpsborg 08 FF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Brann's home form reads 7W 10D 11L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.11 PPG return.
Away from home, Sarpsborg 08 FF have taken 0.86 points per game from 28 outings (6W 6D 16L).
Attack vs Defence
Brann are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Sarpsborg 08 FF are on 1.19 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Brann have seen both teams score in 72% of their recent games.
Last 57 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brann
Blended
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Brann and Sarpsborg 08 FF in coming into this match?
Brann have gone 13W 19D 25L in their last 57 games (1.02 PPG), while Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 18W 14D 25L in their last 57 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brann at home or Sarpsborg 08 FF away?
Brann's home record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brann at home: 1.11 PPG; Sarpsborg 08 FF away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 29 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Brann won 1-4 on 2 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Brann have gone 2W 2D 2L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Sarpsborg 08 FF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Brann
4
Draws
3
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
From 10 meetings on record, Brann have won 3, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Brann and Sarpsborg 08 FF last play each other?
They last met on 29 May 2026, when Brann 1-2 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Brann see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 82% for Brann, 57% for Sarpsborg 08 FF — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Brann) and 54% (Sarpsborg 08 FF). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sarpsborg 08 FF in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brann home games / Sarpsborg 08 FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Brann play Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 82% of Brann's games and 57% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Brann vs Sarpsborg 08 FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Brann's matches and 54% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's.
Do Brann and Sarpsborg 08 FF tend to score early?
Brann have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Brann's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brann and Sarpsborg 08 FF finished level at 0-0 at Brann Stadion, Regular Season - 30, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brann 1.65 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.52 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Brann fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Sarpsborg 08 FF landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brann attack 0.85 / defence 1.22 against Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.02 / defence 1.08, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brann 38% | Draw 29% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 33%, with Brann to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brann 58%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brann's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did not.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Brann 1.02 PPG, Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Brann (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.