Brann 2-1 Sandefjord – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Brann at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Brann vs Sandefjord encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 8 as Brann welcome Sandefjord to Brann Stadion. Kick-off is set for Thursday 16 May 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Brann have gone 8W 1D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.50 PPG return. Last five: D W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Brann at Brann Stadion this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sandefjord stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sandefjord's form when playing away from home: 2W 0D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Brann are in the better shape of the two on current Eliteserien data — 1.20 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 1.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Brann, 0 for Sandefjord and 4 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.4 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 29 Oct 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Brann in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Sandefjord in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Brann 57% versus Sandefjord 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Brann 60% | Sandefjord 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brann 1.72 xG and Sandefjord 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brann attack 1.155 / defence 0.716 | Sandefjord attack 0.832 / defence 1.177. League average goals — home 1.265 / away 1.385. Brann's defence rating of 0.716 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 38 Brann games / 36 Sandefjord games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Brann 59% | Draw 24% | Sandefjord 18%. Fair-value odds: Brann 1.69 | Draw 4.17 | Sandefjord 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Brann (59%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Brann are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.54 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 4.2 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.4 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. This conflicts with form data: Brann 70% | Sandefjord 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brann vs Sandefjord | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Brann Stadion • Kick-off: Thursday 16 May 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brann 59% | Draw 24% | Sandefjord 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 46% | xG Brann 1.72 / Sandefjord 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Brann attack 1.155 / def 0.716 | Sandefjord attack 0.832 / def 1.177 | league avg home 1.265 / away 1.385 • Poisson stance: Brann (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Brann xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Sandefjord xG
46%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brann vs Sandefjord kick off?
Brann vs Sandefjord kicked off at 17:00 on Thursday 16 May 2024 at Brann Stadion.
What was the final score in Brann vs Sandefjord?
Brann 2 - 1 Sandefjord.
Where is Brann vs Sandefjord being played?
The match is being played at Brann Stadion.
What competition is Brann vs Sandefjord part of?
Brann vs Sandefjord is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Brann vs Sandefjord?
Our statistical model gives Brann a 59% chance of winning, Sandefjord a 18% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Brann the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brann vs Sandefjord?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Brann and Sandefjord will score (BTTS).
Will Brann vs Sandefjord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Sandefjord?
Record (5 meetings): Brann 1W | Draws 4 | Sandefjord 0W.
What form are Brann and Sandefjord in?
Brann (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Sandefjord (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Brann's attack at 1.16x the league average against Sandefjord's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 1.72 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sandefjord's attack versus Brann's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.0%), 2-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brann Win
59%
1.71
24%
4.23
18%
5.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Brann xG
Total xG
2.54
0.82
Sandefjord xG
1.71
59%
Home win
4.23
24%
Draw
5.64
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
18%
5.58
Win to Nil
26%
3.89
3%
31.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 6.5 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.5 | 11.1 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.6 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.7 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brann vs Sandefjord?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Brann and Sandefjord expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Brann and 0.82 for Sandefjord, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Brann vs Sandefjord?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 30 outings, Brann have picked up 2.03 PPG on a 19W 4D 7L record — D-W-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Sandefjord's form line: 8W 7D 15L from 30 games, 1.03 PPG, last five D-W-W-L-W.
Put side by side, Brann are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sandefjord.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Brann have posted 2.53 PPG from 15 outings (12W 2D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 2.03 PPG overall — Brann are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Sandefjord have gone 2W 2D 11L from 15 away games — 0.53 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.03 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sandefjord's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Brann come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Brann are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Sandefjord are on 1.57 scored and 1.83 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brann
Current Season
Sandefjord
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Brann and Sandefjord in coming into this match?
Brann have gone 19W 4D 7L in their last 30 games (2.03 PPG), while Sandefjord have gone 8W 7D 15L in their last 30 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brann at home or Sandefjord away?
Brann's home record (2.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brann at home: 2.53 PPG; Sandefjord away: 0.53 PPG.
Have Brann or Sandefjord been keeping clean sheets recently?
Brann have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Sandefjord in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Brann and Sandefjord runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Sep 2025, when Brann won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Brann's record when hosting Sandefjord specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Brann
5
Draws
1
Sandefjord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Sandefjord?
From 10 meetings on record, Brann have won 4, Sandefjord have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Brann and Sandefjord last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Brann 0-1 Sandefjord.
Who has won more matches between Brann and Sandefjord?
Brann have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Brann are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Brann 67%, Sandefjord 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Brann and 67% for Sandefjord. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sandefjord in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brann home games / Sandefjord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Brann play Sandefjord?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Brann's games and 60% of Sandefjord's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Brann vs Sandefjord usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Brann's matches and 67% of Sandefjord's.
Do Brann and Sandefjord tend to score early?
Brann have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Sandefjord in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Brann edge out Sandefjord 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brann beat Sandefjord 2-1 at Brann Stadion, Regular Season - 8, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brann 1.72 xG and Sandefjord 0.82 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brann attack 1.16 / defence 0.72 against Sandefjord attack 0.83 / defence 1.18, drawn from 38/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brann 59% | Draw 24% | Sandefjord 18%, with Brann to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brann 60%, Sandefjord 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brann's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Sandefjord's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Brann arrived the stronger side — 2.03 PPG against 1.03. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.