Brann 1-2 Rosenborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Brann at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Brann vs Rosenborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Rosenborg make the trip to Brann Stadion to face Brann in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Sunday 28 June 2020 at 19:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brann 1.62 xG and Rosenborg 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brann attack 1.114 / defence 0.970 | Rosenborg attack 0.671 / defence 1.026. League average goals — home 1.417 / away 1.568. Data: 3 Brann games / 3 Rosenborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Brann 51% | Draw 25% | Rosenborg 24%. Fair-value odds: Brann 1.96 | Draw 4.00 | Rosenborg 4.17. Brann hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Brann are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Brann if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.64 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brann vs Rosenborg | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Brann Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Jun 2020, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brann 51% | Draw 25% | Rosenborg 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 51% | xG Brann 1.62 / Rosenborg 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Brann attack 1.114 / def 0.970 | Rosenborg attack 0.671 / def 1.026 | league avg home 1.417 / away 1.568 • Poisson stance: Brann (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Brann xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Rosenborg xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brann vs Rosenborg kick off?
Brann vs Rosenborg kicked off at 19:30 on Sunday 28 June 2020 at Brann Stadion.
What was the final score in Brann vs Rosenborg?
Brann 1 - 2 Rosenborg.
Where is Brann vs Rosenborg being played?
The match is being played at Brann Stadion.
What competition is Brann vs Rosenborg part of?
Brann vs Rosenborg is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Brann vs Rosenborg?
Our statistical model gives Brann a 51% chance of winning, Rosenborg a 24% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Brann the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brann vs Rosenborg?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Brann and Rosenborg will score (BTTS).
Will Brann vs Rosenborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Rosenborg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Brann and Rosenborg in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Brann's attack rating (1.11) and Rosenborg's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.62 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Rosenborg's attack (0.67x) against Brann's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 3/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brann Win
51%
1.95
25%
4.03
24%
4.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Brann xG
Total xG
2.64
1.02
Rosenborg xG
1.95
51%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
4.19
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
20%
5.05
Win to Nil
18%
5.41
5%
21.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 7.3 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 11.8 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.5 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brann vs Rosenborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Brann and Rosenborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Brann and 1.02 for Rosenborg, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Brann vs Rosenborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brann
Pre-Season
Rosenborg
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Brann won 3-0 on 4 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Brann have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Rosenborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Brann
3
Draws
1
Rosenborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Rosenborg?
From 10 meetings on record, Brann have won 6, Rosenborg have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Brann and Rosenborg last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Rosenborg 1-1 Brann.
Who has won more matches between Brann and Rosenborg?
Brann have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brann home games / Rosenborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Rosenborg defy the odds to beat Brann 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rosenborg beat Brann 1-2 at Brann Stadion, Regular Season - 4, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brann 1.62 xG and Rosenborg 1.02 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Rosenborg outscored their 1.02 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brann attack 1.11 / defence 0.97 against Rosenborg attack 0.67 / defence 1.03, drawn from 3/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brann 51% | Draw 25% | Rosenborg 24%, with Brann to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Rosenborg win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.