Brann 0-1 Molde – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Molde at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Brann vs Molde encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Brann Stadion plays host to Brann versus Molde in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off: Sunday 28 November 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Brann (all games): 2W 6D 2L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Brann, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Brann have posted 2W 5D 3L at Brann Stadion — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Molde's overall Eliteserien record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W L L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Molde, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Molde's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Molde are 0.80 PPG clear of Brann in recent Eliteserien fixtures (2.00 vs 1.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Brann 0W, Molde 2W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 16 May 2021, ended 0–4 with Molde winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Brann goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 79% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Molde goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Brann 72% and Molde 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Brann 58% | Molde 81%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brann 1.61 xG and Molde 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brann attack 0.862 / defence 1.210 | Molde attack 1.113 / defence 1.059. League average goals — home 1.759 / away 1.237. Data: 57 Brann games / 57 Molde games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Brann 34% | Draw 29% | Molde 37%. Fair-value odds: Brann 2.94 | Draw 3.45 | Molde 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.61 / 1.67) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Molde at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Molde if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.27 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 68% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Brann 90% | Molde 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brann vs Molde | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Brann Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Nov 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brann 34% | Draw 29% | Molde 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 68% | xG Brann 1.61 / Molde 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: Brann attack 0.862 / def 1.210 | Molde attack 1.113 / def 1.059 | league avg home 1.759 / away 1.237 • Poisson stance: Molde (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Brann xG
Expected Goals
1.67
Molde xG
68%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brann vs Molde kick off?
Brann vs Molde kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 28 November 2021 at Brann Stadion.
What was the final score in Brann vs Molde?
Brann 0 - 1 Molde.
Where is Brann vs Molde being played?
The match is being played at Brann Stadion.
What competition is Brann vs Molde part of?
Brann vs Molde is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Brann vs Molde?
Our statistical model gives Brann a 34% chance of winning, Molde a 37% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Molde the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brann vs Molde?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Brann and Molde will score (BTTS).
Will Brann vs Molde have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Molde?
Record (2 meetings): Brann 0W | Draws 0 | Molde 2W.
What form are Brann and Molde in?
Brann (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-D-D. Molde (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Brann's attack at 0.86x the league average against Molde's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.61 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Molde's attack (1.11x) against Brann's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.67.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Molde Win
34%
2.92
29%
3.46
37%
2.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Brann xG
Total xG
3.27
1.67
Molde xG
2.92
34%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
2.71
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.48
32%
BTTS No
3.10
Clean Sheet
19%
5.30
20%
4.98
Win to Nil
6%
15.46
7%
13.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 6.3 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.1 | 8.5 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 8.1 | 6.8 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.4 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brann vs Molde?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Brann and Molde expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Brann and 1.67 for Molde, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Brann vs Molde?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Brann's recent record stands at 13W 19D 25L from 57 games, a 1.02 PPG return, with D-L-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for Brann is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Molde, meanwhile, have gone 36W 7D 14L across 57 games — 2.02 PPG, with W-L-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Molde is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Molde by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Brann heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Brann have managed 7W 10D 11L from 28 games — 1.11 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Molde's away record stands at 13W 5D 10L across 28 trips, a 1.57 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 2.02 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Molde's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Molde come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Brann are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Molde are on 2.47 scored and 1.26 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Brann have seen both teams score in 72% of their recent games; Molde in 61%.
Last 57 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brann
Blended
Molde
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Brann and Molde in coming into this match?
Brann have gone 13W 19D 25L in their last 57 games (1.02 PPG), while Molde have gone 36W 7D 14L in their last 57 (2.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brann at home or Molde away?
Molde's away record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brann at home: 1.11 PPG; Molde away: 1.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 18 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Molde won 4-0 on 16 May 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Brann have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Molde — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Brann
0
Draws
8
Molde
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Molde?
From 10 meetings on record, Brann have won 2, Molde have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Brann and Molde last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2026, when Molde 1-2 Brann.
Who has won more matches between Brann and Molde?
Molde have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Brann see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Molde are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 82% for Brann, 68% for Molde — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Brann and 79% for Molde. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brann home games / Molde away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Brann play Molde?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 82% of Brann's games and 68% of Molde's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Brann vs Molde usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Brann's matches and 79% of Molde's.
Do Brann and Molde tend to score early?
Brann have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Molde in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Molde edge out Brann 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Molde beat Brann 0-1 at Brann Stadion, Regular Season - 28, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brann 1.61 xG and Molde 1.67 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Brann fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brann attack 0.86 / defence 1.21 against Molde attack 1.11 / defence 1.06, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brann 34% | Draw 29% | Molde 37%, with Molde to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brann 58%, Molde 81%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brann's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did not.
Molde's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Molde arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 1.02. Form held, and they took the win. Brann (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward. Molde (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.