Brann vs Lillestrom – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Lillestrom at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Brann vs Lillestrom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Brann and Lillestrom meet at Brann Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 16 October 2021 at 01:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Brann have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Brann, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Brann at Brann Stadion this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Lillestrom (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W L W L L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lillestrom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lillestrom's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Brann register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Lillestrom in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Brann lead 1W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 11 Sep 2021, ended 3–2 with Brann winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Brann half-time and goal-timing data (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Lillestrom half-time and goal-timing data (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Brann 71% and Lillestrom 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Brann 62% | Lillestrom 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brann 1.67 xG and Lillestrom 1.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brann attack 0.950 / defence 1.185 | Lillestrom attack 1.158 / defence 0.977. League average goals — home 1.795 / away 1.303. Data: 51 Brann games / 21 Lillestrom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Brann 34% | Draw 26% | Lillestrom 39%. Fair-value odds: Brann 2.94 | Draw 3.85 | Lillestrom 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.46. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.46 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.67 / 1.79) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lillestrom are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lillestrom if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.46 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 69% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Brann 80% | Lillestrom 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brann vs Lillestrom | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Brann Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Oct 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brann 34% | Draw 26% | Lillestrom 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 69% | xG Brann 1.67 / Lillestrom 1.79 • Poisson strength factors: Brann attack 0.950 / def 1.185 | Lillestrom attack 1.158 / def 0.977 | league avg home 1.795 / away 1.303 • Poisson stance: Lillestrom (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Brann xG
Expected Goals
1.79
Lillestrom xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brann vs Lillestrom kick off?
Brann vs Lillestrom kicked off at 01:00 on Saturday 16 October 2021 at Brann Stadion.
Where is Brann vs Lillestrom being played?
The match is being played at Brann Stadion.
What competition is Brann vs Lillestrom part of?
Brann vs Lillestrom is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Brann vs Lillestrom?
Our statistical model gives Brann a 34% chance of winning, Lillestrom a 39% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Lillestrom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brann vs Lillestrom?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Brann and Lillestrom will score (BTTS).
Will Brann vs Lillestrom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Lillestrom?
Record (2 meetings): Brann 1W | Draws 1 | Lillestrom 0W.
What form are Brann and Lillestrom in?
Brann (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-D-W-D. Lillestrom (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Brann's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Lillestrom's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.67. Flip it around — Lillestrom's attack (1.16x) against Brann's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.79.
These ratings are built from 51/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lillestrom Win
34%
2.91
26%
3.82
39%
2.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Brann xG
Total xG
3.46
1.79
Lillestrom xG
2.91
34%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
2.54
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.44
31%
BTTS No
3.27
Clean Sheet
17%
5.98
19%
5.29
Win to Nil
6%
17.39
7%
13.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 5.7 | 5.1 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 9.4 | 8.4 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.8 | 7.0 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 4.4 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brann vs Lillestrom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Brann and Lillestrom expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Brann and 1.79 for Lillestrom, a combined total of 3.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Brann vs Lillestrom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 21 outings, Brann have picked up 0.86 PPG on a 4W 6D 11L record — L-W-D-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Brann is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lillestrom's form line: 10W 4D 7L from 21 games, 1.62 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-L. The sample for Lillestrom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Lillestrom are the form team by 0.76 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Brann.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Brann have posted 1.20 PPG from 10 outings (3W 3D 4L).
On the road, Lillestrom have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lillestrom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Brann are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game recently; Lillestrom are on 1.57 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Brann have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games; Lillestrom in 71%.
Last 21 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brann
Blended
Lillestrom
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Brann and Lillestrom in coming into this match?
Brann have gone 4W 6D 11L in their last 21 games (0.86 PPG), while Lillestrom have gone 10W 4D 7L in their last 21 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brann at home or Lillestrom away?
Lillestrom's away record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brann at home: 1.20 PPG; Lillestrom away: 1.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 November 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Brann have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Brann have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Lillestrom — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Brann
2
Draws
0
Lillestrom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Lillestrom?
From 6 meetings on record, Brann have won 4, Lillestrom have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Brann and Lillestrom last play each other?
They last met on 9 November 2024, when Brann 2-1 Lillestrom.
Who has won more matches between Brann and Lillestrom?
Brann have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Brann see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Lillestrom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 80% for Brann, 80% for Lillestrom — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Brann and 70% for Lillestrom. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brann home games / Lillestrom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Brann play Lillestrom?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Brann's games and 80% of Lillestrom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Brann vs Lillestrom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Brann's matches and 70% of Lillestrom's.
Do Brann and Lillestrom tend to score early?
Brann have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Lillestrom in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Brann's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Brann Stadion, Regular Season - 25, as Brann and Lillestrom drew 0-0 in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brann 1.67 xG and Lillestrom 1.79 xG, a combined 3.46. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Brann fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Lillestrom landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brann attack 0.95 / defence 1.19 against Lillestrom attack 1.16 / defence 0.98, drawn from 51/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brann 34% | Draw 26% | Lillestrom 39%, with Lillestrom to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brann 62%, Lillestrom 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brann's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Lillestrom's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Lillestrom arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 0.86. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Brann (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.70 average — tighter than their form line. Lillestrom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.