Brann 3-0 Ham-Kam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Brann (42%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Brann face Ham-Kam.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ham-Kam make the trip to Brann Stadion to face Brann in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Sunday 16 August 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Brann (all games): 6W 0D 4L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Brann, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Brann's home record at Brann Stadion: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Ham-Kam have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Ham-Kam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ham-Kam away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Brann's 1.80 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Ham-Kam's 1.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Brann have seen both teams score in 90% of their games, Ham-Kam in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Historically, Brann have had the better of this match-up — 6 wins from 7 meetings, with Ham-Kam managing just 0 victories and 1 draws shared.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Apr 2026, ended 5–1 with Brann winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Brann and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
Brann half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Ham-Kam half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Brann 72% and Ham-Kam 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Brann 80% | Ham-Kam 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brann 1.77 xG and Ham-Kam 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brann attack 1.067 / defence 1.203 | Ham-Kam attack 0.987 / defence 1.007. League average goals — home 1.644 / away 1.354. Data: 46 Brann games / 46 Ham-Kam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Brann 42% | Draw 23% | Ham-Kam 35%. Fair-value odds: Brann 2.38 | Draw 4.35 | Ham-Kam 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.37. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.37 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.77 / 1.61) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Brann as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Brann if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.37 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate: Brann 90% | Ham-Kam 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brann vs Ham-Kam | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Brann Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Aug 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brann 42% | Draw 23% | Ham-Kam 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 66% | xG Brann 1.77 / Ham-Kam 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Brann attack 1.067 / def 1.203 | Ham-Kam attack 0.987 / def 1.007 | league avg home 1.644 / away 1.354 • Poisson stance: Brann (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Brann xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Ham-Kam xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brann vs Ham-Kam kick off?
Brann vs Ham-Kam kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 16 August 2026 at Brann Stadion.
What was the final score in Brann vs Ham-Kam?
Brann 3 - 0 Ham-Kam.
Where is Brann vs Ham-Kam being played?
The match is being played at Brann Stadion.
What competition is Brann vs Ham-Kam part of?
Brann vs Ham-Kam is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Brann vs Ham-Kam?
Our statistical model gives Brann a 42% chance of winning, Ham-Kam a 35% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Brann the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brann vs Ham-Kam?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Brann and Ham-Kam will score (BTTS).
Will Brann vs Ham-Kam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Ham-Kam?
Record (7 meetings): Brann 6W | Draws 1 | Ham-Kam 0W.
What form are Brann and Ham-Kam in?
Brann (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. Ham-Kam (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Brann's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Ham-Kam's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.77. Flip it around — Ham-Kam's attack (0.99x) against Brann's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.61.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Brann Win
42%
2.38
23%
4.41
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Brann xG
Total xG
3.37
1.61
Ham-Kam xG
2.38
42%
Home win
4.41
23%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.97
Clean Sheet
20%
4.99
17%
5.85
Win to Nil
8%
11.90
6%
16.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 5.5 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 9.7 | 7.8 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.6 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 5.1 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brann vs Ham-Kam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Brann and Ham-Kam expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Brann and 1.61 for Ham-Kam, a combined total of 3.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Brann vs Ham-Kam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Brann come into this having played 46 games, going 24W 6D 16L for 1.70 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-W. The sample for Brann is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ham-Kam sit at 1.28 PPG from 46 outings (16W 11D 19L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Ham-Kam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Brann carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.42 PPG clear of Ham-Kam — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Brann's home form reads 14W 3D 6L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.96 PPG return.
Away from home, Ham-Kam have taken 0.83 points per game from 23 outings (4W 7D 12L). That's a step down from their 1.28 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ham-Kam's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Brann come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Brann are averaging 1.91 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Ham-Kam are on 1.43 scored and 1.61 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Brann have seen both teams score in 72% of their recent games.
Last 46 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brann
Blended
Ham-Kam
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Brann and Ham-Kam in coming into this match?
Brann have gone 24W 6D 16L in their last 46 games (1.70 PPG), while Ham-Kam have gone 16W 11D 19L in their last 46 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brann at home or Ham-Kam away?
Brann's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brann at home: 1.96 PPG; Ham-Kam away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since July 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 16 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Brann have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Brann won 1-5 on 6 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Brann have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Ham-Kam — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
7
Brann
1
Draws
0
Ham-Kam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Ham-Kam?
From 8 meetings on record, Brann have won 7, Ham-Kam have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Brann and Ham-Kam last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2026, when Brann 3-0 Ham-Kam.
Who has won more matches between Brann and Ham-Kam?
Brann have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Brann are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Ham-Kam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Brann 78%, Ham-Kam 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 78% for Brann and 61% for Ham-Kam. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ham-Kam in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brann home games / Ham-Kam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Brann play Ham-Kam?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of Brann's games and 48% of Ham-Kam's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Brann vs Ham-Kam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 78% of Brann's matches and 61% of Ham-Kam's.
Do Brann and Ham-Kam tend to score early?
Brann have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Ham-Kam in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Brann run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Ham-Kam.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brann beat Ham-Kam 3-0 at Brann Stadion, Regular Season - 18, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brann 1.77 xG and Ham-Kam 1.61 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Brann beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Ham-Kam landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brann attack 1.07 / defence 1.20 against Ham-Kam attack 0.99 / defence 1.01, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brann 42% | Draw 23% | Ham-Kam 35%, with Brann to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 73% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brann 80%, Ham-Kam 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brann's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did not.
Ham-Kam's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Brann arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.28. That form edge translated into the three points. Brann (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.96 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line. Ham-Kam (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.