Bodo/Glimt vs Valerenga – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Bodo/Glimt (83%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Bodo/Glimt face Valerenga.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 12 as Bodo/Glimt welcome Valerenga to Aspmyra Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 25 October 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Bodo/Glimt — All Games: 9W 1D 0L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 2.80 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Bodo/Glimt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bodo/Glimt's form when playing at home: 9W 0D 1L across 10 games at Aspmyra Stadion this term (2.70 PPG). They are averaging 3.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Aspmyra Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Valerenga stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Valerenga, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Valerenga's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Bodo/Glimt carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.80 vs 1.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Bodo/Glimt have dominated this rivalry, winning 8 of 10 past contests while Valerenga have managed just 1 wins.
The 10 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Aug 2026, ended 2–1 with Bodo/Glimt winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Bodo/Glimt and goals. The home side's 8 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 4.3 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Bodo/Glimt in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
Valerenga in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bodo/Glimt 49% versus Valerenga 62%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Bodo/Glimt 74% | Valerenga 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bodo/Glimt 3.63 xG and Valerenga 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.515 / defence 0.671 | Valerenga attack 1.138 / defence 1.401. League average goals — home 1.712 / away 1.422. Bodo/Glimt carry an above-average attack strength of 1.515 — their λ of 3.63 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Valerenga bring a strong defensive rating of 1.401 — this is suppressing Bodo/Glimt's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Bodo/Glimt's defence rating of 0.671 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 48 Bodo/Glimt games / 47 Valerenga games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 83% | Draw 10% | Valerenga 7%. Fair-value odds: Bodo/Glimt 1.20 | Draw 10.00 | Valerenga 14.29. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (83%) — a 76pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 85% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 4.72. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 85% — a total xG of 4.72 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (3.63 / 1.08) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bodo/Glimt at 83% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.72 combined xG gives a 85% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Bodo/Glimt 20% | Valerenga 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bodo/Glimt vs Valerenga | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Aspmyra Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 83% | Draw 10% | Valerenga 7% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 85% | BTTS 65% | xG Bodo/Glimt 3.63 / Valerenga 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.515 / def 0.671 | Valerenga attack 1.138 / def 1.401 | league avg home 1.712 / away 1.422 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (83%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.63
Bodo/Glimt xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Valerenga xG
65%
BTTS
95%
Over 1.5
85%
Over 2.5
69%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bodo/Glimt vs Valerenga kick off?
Bodo/Glimt vs Valerenga is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Sunday 25 October 2026 at Aspmyra Stadion.
Where is Bodo/Glimt vs Valerenga being played?
The match is being played at Aspmyra Stadion.
What competition is Bodo/Glimt vs Valerenga part of?
Bodo/Glimt vs Valerenga is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Bodo/Glimt vs Valerenga?
Our statistical model gives Bodo/Glimt a 83% chance of winning, Valerenga a 7% chance, and a 10% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bodo/Glimt vs Valerenga?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Bodo/Glimt and Valerenga will score (BTTS).
Will Bodo/Glimt vs Valerenga have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 85%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Valerenga?
Record (10 meetings): Bodo/Glimt 8W | Draws 1 | Valerenga 1W.
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Valerenga in?
Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Valerenga (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 2.60 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Bodo/Glimt's attacking strength (1.51x league average) is weighed against Valerenga's defensive record (1.40x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 3.63. The same calculation in reverse, Valerenga's attack versus Bodo/Glimt's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 3-1, at 7.7%. Close behind: 3-0 (7.1%), 4-1 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
83%
1.20
10%
10.08
7%
14.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 1
7.7%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
7.1%
Home win
4 – 1
7.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.63
Bodo/Glimt xG
Total xG
4.72
1.08
Valerenga xG
1.20
83%
Home win
10.08
10%
Draw
14.56
7%
Away win
Goals Markets
95%
Over 1.5
1.05
5%
Under 1.5
20.00
85%
Over 2.5
1.18
15%
Under 2.5
6.67
69%
Over 3.5
1.45
31%
Under 3.5
3.23
51%
Over 4.5
1.96
49%
Under 4.5
2.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.82
Clean Sheet
34%
2.96
3%
37.86
Win to Nil
28%
3.56
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 5.9 | 6.4 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.1 | 7.7 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 6.5 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 4.7 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bodo/Glimt vs Valerenga?
Our Poisson model rates 3-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.7%.
How many goals are Bodo/Glimt and Valerenga expected to score?
The model projects 3.63 expected goals for Bodo/Glimt and 1.08 for Valerenga, a combined total of 4.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Bodo/Glimt vs Valerenga?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 83%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bodo/Glimt's recent record stands at 35W 6D 6L from 47 games, a 2.36 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Bodo/Glimt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Valerenga, meanwhile, have gone 18W 7D 22L across 47 games — 1.30 PPG, with W-L-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Valerenga is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bodo/Glimt by 1.06 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Valerenga heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Bodo/Glimt have managed 19W 1D 3L from 23 games — 2.52 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Valerenga's away record stands at 6W 3D 14L across 23 trips, a 0.91 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bodo/Glimt are averaging 2.79 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; Valerenga are on 1.64 scored and 1.87 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Valerenga in 62%.
Defensively: Bodo/Glimt have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
Valerenga
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Valerenga in coming into this match?
Bodo/Glimt have gone 35W 6D 6L in their last 47 games (2.36 PPG), while Valerenga have gone 18W 7D 22L in their last 47 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bodo/Glimt at home or Valerenga away?
Bodo/Glimt's home record (2.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bodo/Glimt at home: 2.52 PPG; Valerenga away: 0.91 PPG.
Have Bodo/Glimt or Valerenga been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bodo/Glimt have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Valerenga in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Oct 2022, when Bodo/Glimt won 0-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bodo/Glimt's record when hosting Valerenga specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Bodo/Glimt
1
Draws
1
Valerenga
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Valerenga?
From 10 meetings on record, Bodo/Glimt have won 8, Valerenga have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bodo/Glimt and Valerenga last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Valerenga 1-2 Bodo/Glimt.
Who has won more matches between Bodo/Glimt and Valerenga?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 74% of the time.
Valerenga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bodo/Glimt 35%, Valerenga 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for Bodo/Glimt and 52% for Valerenga. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bodo/Glimt keep a clean sheet in 61% of their matches; Valerenga in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bodo/Glimt home games / Valerenga away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bodo/Glimt play Valerenga?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Bodo/Glimt's recent matches and 56% of Valerenga's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bodo/Glimt vs Valerenga usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Bodo/Glimt's matches and 52% of Valerenga's.
Do Bodo/Glimt and Valerenga tend to score early?
Bodo/Glimt have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Valerenga in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.