Bodo/Glimt 1-0 Stromsgodset – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt at 44% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bodo/Glimt vs Stromsgodset encounter.

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Match Analysis

Bodo/Glimt host Stromsgodset at Aspmyra Stadion in Eliteserien (matchday 6). Kick-off is Sunday 5 May 2024 at 17:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Bodo/Glimt stand at 8W 1D 1L — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Bodo/Glimt have gone 8W 1D 1L in their last 10 home games (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Stromsgodset — last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

Stromsgodset away from home: 5W 0D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

On current form, Bodo/Glimt have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (2.50 vs 1.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

H2H Record

The H2H picture is flat: the 6 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for Bodo/Glimt, 1 for Stromsgodset and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.2 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 1 Oct 2023, ended Bodo/Glimt 2–0 Stromsgodset — a Bodo/Glimt win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Bodo/Glimt trading profile (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 62%.

Stromsgodset trading profile (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bodo/Glimt 65% versus Stromsgodset 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bodo/Glimt 72% | Stromsgodset 55%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bodo/Glimt 1.41 xG and Stromsgodset 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.074 / defence 0.799 | Stromsgodset attack 0.993 / defence 1.114. League average goals — home 1.178 / away 1.374. Bodo/Glimt have a tight defence (rating 0.799), which is pulling Stromsgodset's projected output down. Data: built from Bodo/Glimt's last 35 games and Stromsgodset's last 35.

Result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 44% | Draw 27% | Stromsgodset 29%. Fair-value odds: Bodo/Glimt 2.26 | Draw 3.76 | Stromsgodset 3.43. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bodo/Glimt offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.50 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 54% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 4.2 goals per game across 6 H2H matches points the other way.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Bodo/Glimt 50% (last 10 home games) | Stromsgodset 20% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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