Bodo/Glimt 1-4 Molde – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Bodo/Glimt at 52% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Bodo/Glimt face Molde.

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Analysis

Molde make the trip to Aspmyra Stadion to face Bodo/Glimt in Eliteserien (matchday 21). The match kicks off on Saturday 3 September 2022 at 18:00 UK time.

Form

Bodo/Glimt (all games): 8W 1D 1L across their last 10 — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 3.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

At home, Bodo/Glimt have gone 5W 5D 0L in their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 3.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.00 lags behind their overall 2.50 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.

Molde's record over their last 10 games: 8W 2D 0L (2.60 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling, Molde have posted 8W 2D 0L from their last 10 away outings — 2.60 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

A near-identical PPG reading — 2.50 for Bodo/Glimt, 2.60 for Molde — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Bodo/Glimt's last 10 home games and Molde's last 10 away games) — Bodo/Glimt have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Molde in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H History

Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Bodo/Glimt, 1 for Molde and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 29 May 2022, ended Bodo/Glimt 1–3 Molde — a Molde win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Bodo/Glimt goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 50 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 57%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

Molde goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 50 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bodo/Glimt 54% versus Molde 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bodo/Glimt 56% | Molde 68%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bodo/Glimt 1.92 xG and Molde 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.532 / defence 0.873 | Molde attack 1.118 / defence 0.735. League average goals — home 1.705 / away 1.307. Bodo/Glimt carry an above-average attack rating of 1.532 — their 1.92 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Molde bring a tight defence (rating 0.735, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Bodo/Glimt's projected output down. Data: built from Bodo/Glimt's last 50 games and Molde's last 50.

Result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 52% | Draw 22% | Molde 25%. Fair-value odds: Bodo/Glimt 1.91 | Draw 4.50 | Molde 3.94. Bodo/Glimt hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.92 / 1.28) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bodo/Glimt if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 3.20 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Bodo/Glimt's last 10 home games and Molde's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Bodo/Glimt 70% (last 10 home games) | Molde 60% (last 10 away games).

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