Bodo/Glimt 3-0 Aalesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Bodo/Glimt (67%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Bodo/Glimt face Aalesund.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Aspmyra Stadion plays host to Bodo/Glimt versus Aalesund in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Saturday 18 April 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Bodo/Glimt have collected 2.50 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 3.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Bodo/Glimt's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 games at Aspmyra Stadion this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 3.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Aspmyra Stadion.
Aalesund (all games): 1W 0D 1L across 2 Eliteserien outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Aalesund have played only a handful of Eliteserien games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form ledger tips toward Bodo/Glimt. A 1.00 PPG lead over Aalesund (2.50 vs 1.50) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Across 6 previous meetings, Bodo/Glimt are the stronger side on paper — 6 victories to 0, with 0 draws in between.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.8 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 12 Nov 2023, ended 1–0 with Bodo/Glimt winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Bodo/Glimt and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 3.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bodo/Glimt 2.29 xG and Aalesund 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.268 / defence 0.900 | Aalesund attack 0.818 / defence 1.084. League average goals — home 1.663 / away 1.327. Bodo/Glimt carry an above-average attack strength of 1.268 — their λ of 2.29 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 33 Bodo/Glimt games / 4 Aalesund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 67% | Draw 19% | Aalesund 15%. Fair-value odds: Bodo/Glimt 1.49 | Draw 5.26 | Aalesund 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (67%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.26. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.26 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bodo/Glimt are the pick at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.26 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bodo/Glimt vs Aalesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Aspmyra Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Apr 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 67% | Draw 19% | Aalesund 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 56% | xG Bodo/Glimt 2.29 / Aalesund 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.268 / def 0.900 | Aalesund attack 0.818 / def 1.084 | league avg home 1.663 / away 1.327 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.29
Bodo/Glimt xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Aalesund xG
56%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bodo/Glimt vs Aalesund kick off?
Bodo/Glimt vs Aalesund kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 18 April 2026 at Aspmyra Stadion.
What was the final score in Bodo/Glimt vs Aalesund?
Bodo/Glimt 3 - 0 Aalesund.
Where is Bodo/Glimt vs Aalesund being played?
The match is being played at Aspmyra Stadion.
What competition is Bodo/Glimt vs Aalesund part of?
Bodo/Glimt vs Aalesund is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Bodo/Glimt vs Aalesund?
Our statistical model gives Bodo/Glimt a 67% chance of winning, Aalesund a 15% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bodo/Glimt vs Aalesund?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Bodo/Glimt and Aalesund will score (BTTS).
Will Bodo/Glimt vs Aalesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Aalesund?
Record (6 meetings): Bodo/Glimt 6W | Draws 0 | Aalesund 0W.
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Aalesund in?
Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 3.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Aalesund (all comps): 1W-0D-1L in 2 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Bodo/Glimt's attacking strength (1.27x league average) is weighed against Aalesund's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.29. Flip it around — Aalesund's attack (0.82x) against Bodo/Glimt's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 33/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 10.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 1-1 (9.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
67%
1.50
19%
5.35
15%
6.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.29
Bodo/Glimt xG
Total xG
3.26
0.98
Aalesund xG
1.50
67%
Home win
5.35
19%
Draw
6.84
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
10%
9.84
Win to Nil
25%
3.98
1%
67.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.7 | 8.5 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.8 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.6 | 7.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bodo/Glimt vs Aalesund?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are Bodo/Glimt and Aalesund expected to score?
The model projects 2.29 expected goals for Bodo/Glimt and 0.98 for Aalesund, a combined total of 3.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Bodo/Glimt vs Aalesund?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bodo/Glimt's recent record stands at 2W 0D 0L from 2 games, a 3.00 PPG return, with W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Bodo/Glimt, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Aalesund, meanwhile, have gone 1W 0D 1L across 2 games — 1.50 PPG, with W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Aalesund, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bodo/Glimt by 1.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Aalesund heading into this one.
Attack vs Defence
Bodo/Glimt are averaging 3.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game recently; Aalesund are on 2.00 scored and 0.50 conceded. Bodo/Glimt's scoring rate against Aalesund's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Aalesund in 0%.
Defensively: Bodo/Glimt have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Aalesund in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bodo/Glimt
Early Season
Aalesund
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Aalesund in coming into this match?
Bodo/Glimt have gone 2W 0D 0L in their last 2 games (3.00 PPG), while Aalesund have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 (1.50 PPG).
Have Bodo/Glimt or Aalesund been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bodo/Glimt have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Aalesund in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Bodo/Glimt go into this on the back of 7 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bodo/Glimt won 7-0 on 8 Nov 2020, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bodo/Glimt have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Aalesund — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
7
Bodo/Glimt
0
Draws
0
Aalesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Aalesund?
From 7 meetings on record, Bodo/Glimt have won 7, Aalesund have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Bodo/Glimt and Aalesund last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Bodo/Glimt 3-0 Aalesund.
Who has won more matches between Bodo/Glimt and Aalesund?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 7 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bodo/Glimt home games / Aalesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bodo/Glimt play Aalesund?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Bodo/Glimt's recent matches and 0% of Aalesund's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bodo/Glimt vs Aalesund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Bodo/Glimt's matches and 50% of Aalesund's.
Do Bodo/Glimt and Aalesund tend to score early?
Bodo/Glimt have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Aalesund in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bodo/Glimt run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Aalesund.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bodo/Glimt beat Aalesund 3-0 at Aspmyra Stadion, Regular Season - 5, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bodo/Glimt 2.29 xG and Aalesund 0.98 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Aalesund landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bodo/Glimt attack 1.27 / defence 0.90 against Aalesund attack 0.82 / defence 1.08, drawn from 33/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bodo/Glimt 67% | Draw 19% | Aalesund 15%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 67%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bodo/Glimt 100%, Aalesund 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.50. That form edge translated into the three points. Aalesund managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.