Aalesund 3-2 Start – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Start at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Aalesund vs Start fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Aalesund host Start at Color Line Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 29 July 2020 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Aalesund — All Games: 0W 3D 7L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 0.30 points per game. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 3.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 3.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Aalesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Aalesund have posted 0W 1D 4L at Color Line Stadion — 0.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 3.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Start have recorded 0W 6D 4L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Start, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Start have posted 0W 2D 2L from 4 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Aalesund at 0.30 PPG versus Start's 0.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
Aalesund in-play tendencies (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 30% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 80%.
Start in-play tendencies (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 50% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Aalesund 90% and Start 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Aalesund 80% | Start 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aalesund 1.23 xG and Start 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aalesund attack 0.879 / defence 1.884 | Start attack 0.666 / defence 1.179. League average goals — home 1.185 / away 1.335. Data: 10 Aalesund games / 10 Start games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Aalesund 28% | Draw 24% | Start 48%. Fair-value odds: Aalesund 3.57 | Draw 4.17 | Start 2.08. Start hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Start as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Start offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.90 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Aalesund 100% | Start 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aalesund vs Start | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Color Line Stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 29 Jul 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aalesund 28% | Draw 24% | Start 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 57% | xG Aalesund 1.23 / Start 1.68 • Poisson strength factors: Aalesund attack 0.879 / def 1.884 | Start attack 0.666 / def 1.179 | league avg home 1.185 / away 1.335 • Poisson stance: Start (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Aalesund xG
Expected Goals
1.68
Start xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Aalesund vs Start kick off?
Aalesund vs Start kicked off at 17:00 on Wednesday 29 July 2020 at Color Line Stadion.
What was the final score in Aalesund vs Start?
Aalesund 3 - 2 Start.
Where is Aalesund vs Start being played?
The match is being played at Color Line Stadion.
What competition is Aalesund vs Start part of?
Aalesund vs Start is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Aalesund vs Start?
Our statistical model gives Aalesund a 28% chance of winning, Start a 48% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Start the favourite.
Will both teams score in Aalesund vs Start?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Aalesund and Start will score (BTTS).
Will Aalesund vs Start have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Aalesund and Start?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Aalesund and Start in?
Aalesund (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 3.20 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Start (all comps): 0W-6D-4L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Aalesund's attack at 0.88x the league average against Start's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 1.23 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Start's attack versus Aalesund's defence, projects 1.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Start Win
28%
3.57
24%
4.15
48%
2.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Aalesund xG
Total xG
2.90
1.68
Start xG
3.57
28%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
2.09
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
19%
5.34
29%
3.41
Win to Nil
5%
19.07
14%
7.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 9.2 | 7.7 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.3 | 9.5 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 6.9 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Aalesund vs Start?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Aalesund and Start expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Aalesund and 1.68 for Start, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Aalesund vs Start?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 10 outings, Aalesund have picked up 0.30 PPG on a 0W 3D 7L record — D-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Aalesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Start's form line: 0W 6D 4L from 10 games, 0.60 PPG, last five D-L-D-D-D. The sample for Start is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Aalesund on 0.30 PPG, Start on 0.60. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Aalesund have posted 0.25 PPG from 4 outings (0W 1D 3L).
On the road, Start have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 away games — 0.50 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Aalesund are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 3.20 conceded per game recently; Start are on 0.80 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Aalesund have seen both teams score in 90% of their recent games.
Last 10 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aalesund
Blended
Start
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Aalesund and Start in coming into this match?
Aalesund have gone 0W 3D 7L in their last 10 games (0.30 PPG), while Start have gone 0W 6D 4L in their last 10 (0.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Aalesund at home or Start away?
Start's away record (0.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Aalesund at home: 0.25 PPG; Start away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Aalesund and Start runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 4 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Aalesund's record when hosting Start specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Aalesund
1
Draws
1
Start
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Aalesund and Start?
From 4 meetings on record, Aalesund have won 2, Start have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Aalesund and Start last play each other?
They last met on 4 September 2026, when Aalesund 2-0 Start.
Who has won more matches between Aalesund and Start?
Aalesund have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Aalesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Start are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Aalesund at 100%, Start at 50%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Aalesund and 25% for Start. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 100% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Start in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aalesund home games / Start away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Aalesund play Start?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Aalesund's games and 50% of Start's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Aalesund vs Start usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Aalesund's matches and 25% of Start's.
Do Aalesund and Start tend to score early?
Aalesund have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Start in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Aalesund defy the odds to beat Start 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Aalesund beat Start 3-2 at Color Line Stadion, Regular Season - 11, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Aalesund 1.23 xG and Start 1.68 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Aalesund beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aalesund attack 0.88 / defence 1.88 against Start attack 0.67 / defence 1.18, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Aalesund 28% | Draw 24% | Start 48%, with Start to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Aalesund win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aalesund 80%, Start 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Aalesund's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 90% of their matches — today it did.
Start's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Aalesund 0.30 PPG, Start 0.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Aalesund win broke the near-deadlock. Aalesund (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 2 against a 3.50 average — tighter than their form line. Start (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.