Aalesund 0-0 Haugesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Aalesund at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Aalesund vs Haugesund fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Haugesund travel to Color Line Stadion to take on Aalesund. The game is scheduled for Sunday 7 May 2023, 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Aalesund — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W L W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Aalesund at Color Line Stadion this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Haugesund stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Haugesund have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Aalesund 1.70 PPG, Haugesund 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Aalesund, 2 for Haugesund and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Aug 2022, ended 1–2 with Haugesund winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Aalesund in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Haugesund in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Aalesund 53% versus Haugesund 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Aalesund 60% | Haugesund 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aalesund 1.41 xG and Haugesund 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aalesund attack 0.681 / defence 1.102 | Haugesund attack 0.770 / defence 1.235. League average goals — home 1.674 / away 1.147. Aalesund's attack strength of 0.681 is below the league average — the 1.41 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Haugesund bring a strong defensive rating of 1.235 — this is suppressing Aalesund's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 35 Aalesund games / 34 Haugesund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Aalesund 45% | Draw 31% | Haugesund 24%. Fair-value odds: Aalesund 2.22 | Draw 3.23 | Haugesund 4.17. Aalesund hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Aalesund are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Aalesund offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.38 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Aalesund 60% | Haugesund 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aalesund vs Haugesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Color Line Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 7 May 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aalesund 45% | Draw 31% | Haugesund 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Aalesund 1.41 / Haugesund 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Aalesund attack 0.681 / def 1.102 | Haugesund attack 0.770 / def 1.235 | league avg home 1.674 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: Aalesund (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Aalesund xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Haugesund xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Aalesund vs Haugesund kick off?
Aalesund vs Haugesund kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 7 May 2023 at Color Line Stadion.
What was the final score in Aalesund vs Haugesund?
Aalesund 0 - 0 Haugesund.
Where is Aalesund vs Haugesund being played?
The match is being played at Color Line Stadion.
What competition is Aalesund vs Haugesund part of?
Aalesund vs Haugesund is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Aalesund vs Haugesund?
Our statistical model gives Aalesund a 45% chance of winning, Haugesund a 24% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Aalesund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Aalesund vs Haugesund?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Aalesund and Haugesund will score (BTTS).
Will Aalesund vs Haugesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Aalesund and Haugesund?
Record (4 meetings): Aalesund 1W | Draws 1 | Haugesund 2W.
What form are Aalesund and Haugesund in?
Aalesund (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. Haugesund (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Aalesund's attacking strength (0.68x league average) is weighed against Haugesund's defensive record (1.24x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.41. The same calculation in reverse, Haugesund's attack versus Aalesund's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Aalesund Win
45%
2.22
31%
3.24
24%
4.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Aalesund xG
Total xG
2.38
0.97
Haugesund xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
4.15
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
24%
4.09
Win to Nil
17%
5.88
6%
16.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 12.7 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Aalesund vs Haugesund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Aalesund and Haugesund expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Aalesund and 0.97 for Haugesund, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Aalesund vs Haugesund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 30 outings, Aalesund have picked up 1.30 PPG on a 10W 9D 11L record — W-W-L-W-D across the most recent five.
Haugesund's form line: 10W 8D 12L from 30 games, 1.27 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Aalesund on 1.30 PPG, Haugesund on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Aalesund have posted 1.53 PPG from 15 outings (6W 5D 4L).
On the road, Haugesund have gone 4W 4D 7L from 15 away games — 1.07 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Aalesund come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Aalesund are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Haugesund are on 1.40 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Haugesund in 63%.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aalesund
Current Season
Haugesund
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Aalesund and Haugesund in coming into this match?
Aalesund have gone 10W 9D 11L in their last 30 games (1.30 PPG), while Haugesund have gone 10W 8D 12L in their last 30 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Aalesund at home or Haugesund away?
Aalesund's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Aalesund at home: 1.53 PPG; Haugesund away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 October 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Oct 2023, when Haugesund won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Aalesund's record when hosting Haugesund specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Aalesund
2
Draws
3
Haugesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Aalesund and Haugesund?
From 6 meetings on record, Aalesund have won 1, Haugesund have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Aalesund and Haugesund last play each other?
They last met on 28 October 2023, when Haugesund 6-1 Aalesund.
Who has won more matches between Aalesund and Haugesund?
Haugesund have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Aalesund see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Aalesund 60%, Haugesund 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Aalesund) and 53% (Haugesund).
On the defensive side: Aalesund keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Haugesund in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aalesund home games / Haugesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Aalesund play Haugesund?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Aalesund's games and 53% of Haugesund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Aalesund vs Haugesund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Aalesund's recent games and 53% of Haugesund's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Aalesund and Haugesund tend to score early?
Aalesund have had a goal before half-time in 47% of their recent matches, Haugesund in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Aalesund's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Aalesund and Haugesund finished level at 0-0 at Color Line Stadion, Regular Season - 5, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Aalesund 1.41 xG and Haugesund 0.97 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Aalesund fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Haugesund landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aalesund attack 0.68 / defence 1.10 against Haugesund attack 0.77 / defence 1.24, drawn from 35/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Aalesund 45% | Draw 31% | Haugesund 24%, with Aalesund to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aalesund 60%, Haugesund 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Aalesund's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Haugesund's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Aalesund 1.30 PPG, Haugesund 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Aalesund (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line. Haugesund (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.