Willem II 0-4 Feyenoord – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Willem II at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Willem II vs Feyenoord fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Feyenoord make the trip to Koning Willem II Stadion to face Willem II in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 1. The match kicks off on Sunday 15 August 2021 at 15:45 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Willem II 1.08 xG and Feyenoord 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Willem II attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Feyenoord attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.107 / away 0.883. Data: 0 Willem II games / 0 Feyenoord games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Willem II 40% | Draw 31% | Feyenoord 29%. Fair-value odds: Willem II 2.50 | Draw 3.23 | Feyenoord 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Willem II at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Willem II if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.95 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Willem II vs Feyenoord | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Koning Willem II Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Aug 2021, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Willem II 40% | Draw 31% | Feyenoord 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 38% | xG Willem II 1.08 / Feyenoord 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Willem II attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Feyenoord attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.107 / away 0.883 • Poisson stance: Willem II (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Willem II xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Feyenoord xG
38%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Willem II vs Feyenoord kick off?
Willem II vs Feyenoord kicked off at 15:45 on Sunday 15 August 2021 at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What was the final score in Willem II vs Feyenoord?
Willem II 0 - 4 Feyenoord.
Where is Willem II vs Feyenoord being played?
The match is being played at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What competition is Willem II vs Feyenoord part of?
Willem II vs Feyenoord is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Willem II vs Feyenoord?
Our statistical model gives Willem II a 40% chance of winning, Feyenoord a 29% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Willem II the favourite.
Will both teams score in Willem II vs Feyenoord?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Willem II and Feyenoord will score (BTTS).
Will Willem II vs Feyenoord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and Feyenoord?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Willem II and Feyenoord in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Willem II's attack at 0.85x the league average against Feyenoord's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.08 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Feyenoord's attack (0.85x) against Willem II's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
The sample (0/0 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Willem II Win
40%
2.49
31%
3.21
29%
3.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.3%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Willem II xG
Total xG
1.95
0.86
Feyenoord xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
3.49
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.62
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
34%
2.95
Win to Nil
17%
5.89
10%
10.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.3 | 12.3 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.5 | 13.4 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 7.2 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Willem II vs Feyenoord?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.0%.
How many goals are Willem II and Feyenoord expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Willem II and 0.86 for Feyenoord, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Willem II vs Feyenoord?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Willem II
Pre-Season
Feyenoord
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Feyenoord won 0-4 on 15 Aug 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Willem II have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Feyenoord — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Willem II
2
Draws
2
Feyenoord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and Feyenoord?
From 4 meetings on record, Willem II have won 0, Feyenoord have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Willem II and Feyenoord last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2025, when Willem II 1-1 Feyenoord.
Who has won more matches between Willem II and Feyenoord?
Feyenoord have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Willem II home games / Feyenoord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Feyenoord run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Willem II.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Feyenoord beat Willem II 0-4 at Koning Willem II Stadion, Regular Season - 1, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Willem II 1.08 xG and Feyenoord 0.86 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Willem II fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Feyenoord outscored their 0.86 projection by 3.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Willem II attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Feyenoord attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Willem II 40% | Draw 31% | Feyenoord 29%, with Willem II to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Feyenoord win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.