Waalwijk 1-0 Sparta Rotterdam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Waalwijk at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Waalwijk vs Sparta Rotterdam fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 10 as Waalwijk welcome Sparta Rotterdam to Mandemakers Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 23 October 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Waalwijk — All Games: 1W 4D 4L from 9 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 0.78 points per game. Last five: D L L D D. They are averaging 1.33 goals per game and conceding 1.67 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 78% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Waalwijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Mandemakers Stadion, Waalwijk have gone 1W 1D 2L this season (4 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Sparta Rotterdam have recorded 1W 4D 4L from 9 outings — 0.78 PPG. Last five: D D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.89 per game is modest, conceding 1.89 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sparta Rotterdam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Sparta Rotterdam have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 away fixtures this term (0.25 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.25 is notably below their overall 0.78 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Waalwijk at 0.78 PPG versus Sparta Rotterdam's 0.78. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
Waalwijk in-play tendencies (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Sparta Rotterdam in-play tendencies (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Waalwijk 78% and Sparta Rotterdam 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Waalwijk 67% | Sparta Rotterdam 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waalwijk 1.31 xG and Sparta Rotterdam 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waalwijk attack 0.755 / defence 1.149 | Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.629 / defence 1.301. League average goals — home 1.331 / away 1.384. Waalwijk's attack strength of 0.755 is below the league average — the 1.31 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Sparta Rotterdam bring a strong defensive rating of 1.301 — this is suppressing Waalwijk's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 Waalwijk games / 9 Sparta Rotterdam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Waalwijk 44% | Draw 28% | Sparta Rotterdam 29%. Fair-value odds: Waalwijk 2.27 | Draw 3.57 | Sparta Rotterdam 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Waalwijk are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Waalwijk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.31 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. This conflicts with form data: Waalwijk 75% | Sparta Rotterdam 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waalwijk vs Sparta Rotterdam | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Mandemakers Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Oct 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waalwijk 44% | Draw 28% | Sparta Rotterdam 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 46% | xG Waalwijk 1.31 / Sparta Rotterdam 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Waalwijk attack 0.755 / def 1.149 | Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.629 / def 1.301 | league avg home 1.331 / away 1.384 • Poisson stance: Waalwijk (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Waalwijk xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Sparta Rotterdam xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Waalwijk vs Sparta Rotterdam kick off?
Waalwijk vs Sparta Rotterdam kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 23 October 2021 at Mandemakers Stadion.
What was the final score in Waalwijk vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Waalwijk 1 - 0 Sparta Rotterdam.
Where is Waalwijk vs Sparta Rotterdam being played?
The match is being played at Mandemakers Stadion.
What competition is Waalwijk vs Sparta Rotterdam part of?
Waalwijk vs Sparta Rotterdam is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Waalwijk vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our statistical model gives Waalwijk a 44% chance of winning, Sparta Rotterdam a 29% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Waalwijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waalwijk vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Waalwijk and Sparta Rotterdam will score (BTTS).
Will Waalwijk vs Sparta Rotterdam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Sparta Rotterdam?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Waalwijk and Sparta Rotterdam in?
Waalwijk (all comps): 1W-4D-4L in 9 | 0.78 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 1.67 | L5 D-L-L-D-D. Sparta Rotterdam (all comps): 1W-4D-4L in 9 | 0.78 PPG | GF 0.89 / GA 1.89 | L5 D-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Waalwijk's attack at 0.76x the league average against Sparta Rotterdam's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sparta Rotterdam's attack versus Waalwijk's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 1-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Waalwijk Win
44%
2.30
28%
3.59
29%
3.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Waalwijk xG
Total xG
2.31
1.00
Sparta Rotterdam xG
2.30
44%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
3.50
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
27%
3.69
Win to Nil
16%
6.25
8%
12.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 13.0 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Waalwijk vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Waalwijk and Sparta Rotterdam expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Waalwijk and 1.00 for Sparta Rotterdam, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Waalwijk vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 9 outings, Waalwijk have picked up 0.78 PPG on a 1W 4D 4L record — D-L-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Waalwijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sparta Rotterdam's form line: 1W 4D 4L from 9 games, 0.78 PPG, last five D-D-L-L-D. The sample for Sparta Rotterdam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Waalwijk on 0.78 PPG, Sparta Rotterdam on 0.78. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Waalwijk have posted 1.00 PPG from 4 outings (1W 1D 2L).
On the road, Sparta Rotterdam have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 away games — 0.25 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.78 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sparta Rotterdam's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Waalwijk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Waalwijk are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Sparta Rotterdam are on 0.89 scored and 1.89 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Waalwijk have seen both teams score in 78% of their recent games; Sparta Rotterdam in 67%.
Last 9 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waalwijk
Blended
Sparta Rotterdam
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Waalwijk and Sparta Rotterdam in coming into this match?
Waalwijk have gone 1W 4D 4L in their last 9 games (0.78 PPG), while Sparta Rotterdam have gone 1W 4D 4L in their last 9 (0.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waalwijk at home or Sparta Rotterdam away?
Waalwijk's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waalwijk at home: 1.00 PPG; Sparta Rotterdam away: 0.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Waalwijk and Sparta Rotterdam runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Waalwijk's record when hosting Sparta Rotterdam specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Waalwijk
5
Draws
2
Sparta Rotterdam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Sparta Rotterdam?
From 8 meetings on record, Waalwijk have won 1, Sparta Rotterdam have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Waalwijk and Sparta Rotterdam last play each other?
They last met on 19 January 2025, when Sparta Rotterdam 1-1 Waalwijk.
Who has won more matches between Waalwijk and Sparta Rotterdam?
Sparta Rotterdam have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Sparta Rotterdam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Waalwijk 75%, Sparta Rotterdam 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Waalwijk) and 50% (Sparta Rotterdam).
On the defensive side: Sparta Rotterdam in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waalwijk home games / Sparta Rotterdam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Waalwijk play Sparta Rotterdam?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Waalwijk's games and 50% of Sparta Rotterdam's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Waalwijk vs Sparta Rotterdam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Waalwijk's recent games and 50% of Sparta Rotterdam's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Waalwijk and Sparta Rotterdam tend to score early?
Waalwijk have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Sparta Rotterdam in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Waalwijk edge out Sparta Rotterdam 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Waalwijk beat Sparta Rotterdam 1-0 at Mandemakers Stadion, Regular Season - 10, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waalwijk 1.31 xG and Sparta Rotterdam 1.00 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sparta Rotterdam landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waalwijk attack 0.76 / defence 1.15 against Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.63 / defence 1.30, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waalwijk 44% | Draw 28% | Sparta Rotterdam 29%, with Waalwijk to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waalwijk 67%, Sparta Rotterdam 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 72%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Waalwijk's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 78% of their matches — today it did not.
Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Waalwijk 0.78 PPG, Sparta Rotterdam 0.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Waalwijk win broke the near-deadlock. Waalwijk (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Sparta Rotterdam (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.