Waalwijk 5-0 NAC Breda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Waalwijk at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Waalwijk vs NAC Breda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Waalwijk and NAC Breda meet at Mandemakers Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 9 February 2025 at 13:30 UTC.
Form
Waalwijk (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Eredivisie fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Waalwijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Waalwijk's home record at Mandemakers Stadion: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
NAC Breda's overall Eredivisie record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for NAC Breda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
NAC Breda's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Waalwijk against 1.10 for NAC Breda. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Waalwijk lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 26 Oct 2024, ended 1–4 with NAC Breda winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Waalwijk half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
NAC Breda half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Waalwijk 60% and NAC Breda 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Waalwijk 58% | NAC Breda 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waalwijk 1.64 xG and NAC Breda 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waalwijk attack 0.888 / defence 1.099 | NAC Breda attack 0.907 / defence 1.104. League average goals — home 1.667 / away 1.380. Data: 55 Waalwijk games / 21 NAC Breda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Waalwijk 44% | Draw 24% | NAC Breda 32%. Fair-value odds: Waalwijk 2.27 | Draw 4.17 | NAC Breda 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.64 / 1.38) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Waalwijk are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Waalwijk if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.01 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates are neutral: Waalwijk 50% | NAC Breda 50%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waalwijk vs NAC Breda | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Mandemakers Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Feb 2025, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waalwijk 44% | Draw 24% | NAC Breda 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG Waalwijk 1.64 / NAC Breda 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Waalwijk attack 0.888 / def 1.099 | NAC Breda attack 0.907 / def 1.104 | league avg home 1.667 / away 1.380 • Poisson stance: Waalwijk (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Waalwijk xG
Expected Goals
1.38
NAC Breda xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Waalwijk vs NAC Breda kick off?
Waalwijk vs NAC Breda kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 9 February 2025 at Mandemakers Stadion.
What was the final score in Waalwijk vs NAC Breda?
Waalwijk 5 - 0 NAC Breda.
Where is Waalwijk vs NAC Breda being played?
The match is being played at Mandemakers Stadion.
What competition is Waalwijk vs NAC Breda part of?
Waalwijk vs NAC Breda is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Waalwijk vs NAC Breda?
Our statistical model gives Waalwijk a 44% chance of winning, NAC Breda a 32% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Waalwijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waalwijk vs NAC Breda?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Waalwijk and NAC Breda will score (BTTS).
Will Waalwijk vs NAC Breda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and NAC Breda?
Record (1 meetings): Waalwijk 0W | Draws 0 | NAC Breda 1W.
What form are Waalwijk and NAC Breda in?
Waalwijk (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-D-W-W. NAC Breda (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Waalwijk's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against NAC Breda's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.64. Flip it around — NAC Breda's attack (0.91x) against Waalwijk's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.38.
These ratings are built from 55/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Waalwijk Win
44%
2.29
24%
4.16
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Waalwijk xG
Total xG
3.01
1.38
NAC Breda xG
2.29
44%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
25%
3.96
19%
5.13
Win to Nil
11%
9.05
6%
15.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 6.8 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.1 | 7.6 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.1 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.9 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Waalwijk vs NAC Breda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Waalwijk and NAC Breda expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Waalwijk and 1.38 for NAC Breda, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Waalwijk vs NAC Breda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Waalwijk's recent record stands at 10W 13D 32L from 55 games, a 0.78 PPG return, with D-L-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Waalwijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
NAC Breda, meanwhile, have gone 23W 12D 20L across 55 games — 1.47 PPG, with L-L-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for NAC Breda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours NAC Breda by 0.69 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Waalwijk heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Waalwijk have managed 6W 8D 12L from 26 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
NAC Breda's away record stands at 9W 5D 12L across 26 trips, a 1.23 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Waalwijk are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.84 conceded per game recently; NAC Breda are on 1.64 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Waalwijk have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; NAC Breda in 64%.
Last 55 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waalwijk
Blended
NAC Breda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Waalwijk and NAC Breda in coming into this match?
Waalwijk have gone 10W 13D 32L in their last 55 games (0.78 PPG), while NAC Breda have gone 23W 12D 20L in their last 55 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waalwijk at home or NAC Breda away?
NAC Breda's away record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waalwijk at home: 1.00 PPG; NAC Breda away: 1.23 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 3 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 4 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Waalwijk have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Waalwijk won 5-0 on 9 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Waalwijk have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against NAC Breda — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Waalwijk
0
Draws
1
NAC Breda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and NAC Breda?
From 3 meetings on record, Waalwijk have won 2, NAC Breda have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Waalwijk and NAC Breda last play each other?
They last met on 4 September 2026, when Waalwijk 4-2 NAC Breda.
Who has won more matches between Waalwijk and NAC Breda?
Waalwijk have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Waalwijk 58%, NAC Breda 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Waalwijk) and 62% (NAC Breda). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Waalwijk have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waalwijk home games / NAC Breda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Waalwijk play NAC Breda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Waalwijk's games and 58% of NAC Breda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Waalwijk vs NAC Breda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Waalwijk's matches and 62% of NAC Breda's.
Do Waalwijk and NAC Breda tend to score early?
Waalwijk have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, NAC Breda in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Waalwijk run riot with a 5-0 hammering of NAC Breda.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Waalwijk beat NAC Breda 5-0 at Mandemakers Stadion, Regular Season - 22, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waalwijk 1.64 xG and NAC Breda 1.38 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Waalwijk beat their projection by 3.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. NAC Breda landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waalwijk attack 0.89 / defence 1.10 against NAC Breda attack 0.91 / defence 1.10, drawn from 55/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waalwijk 44% | Draw 24% | NAC Breda 32%, with Waalwijk to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waalwijk 58%, NAC Breda 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Waalwijk's trading profile (55 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
NAC Breda's trading profile (55 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, NAC Breda arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 0.78. Form was overturned, with Waalwijk winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Waalwijk (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.54 average — tighter than their form line. NAC Breda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.65 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.