Waalwijk 5-1 Cambuur – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Waalwijk at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Waalwijk vs Cambuur encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 7 as Waalwijk welcome Cambuur to Mandemakers Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 17 September 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Waalwijk have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: D L D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Waalwijk have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Mandemakers Stadion, Waalwijk have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Cambuur — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Cambuur have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Cambuur have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Waalwijk carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Waalwijk, 1 for Cambuur and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 6 May 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Waalwijk in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Cambuur in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Waalwijk 65% and Cambuur 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Waalwijk 50% | Cambuur 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waalwijk 1.70 xG and Cambuur 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waalwijk attack 1.053 / defence 1.006 | Cambuur attack 1.018 / defence 0.986. League average goals — home 1.636 / away 1.362. Data: 40 Waalwijk games / 40 Cambuur games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Waalwijk 45% | Draw 24% | Cambuur 32%. Fair-value odds: Waalwijk 2.22 | Draw 4.17 | Cambuur 3.12. Waalwijk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.70 / 1.39) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Waalwijk as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Waalwijk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.09 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Waalwijk 50% | Cambuur 50%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waalwijk vs Cambuur | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Mandemakers Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Sep 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waalwijk 45% | Draw 24% | Cambuur 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 61% | xG Waalwijk 1.70 / Cambuur 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Waalwijk attack 1.053 / def 1.006 | Cambuur attack 1.018 / def 0.986 | league avg home 1.636 / away 1.362 • Poisson stance: Waalwijk (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Waalwijk xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Cambuur xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Waalwijk vs Cambuur kick off?
Waalwijk vs Cambuur kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 17 September 2022 at Mandemakers Stadion.
What was the final score in Waalwijk vs Cambuur?
Waalwijk 5 - 1 Cambuur.
Where is Waalwijk vs Cambuur being played?
The match is being played at Mandemakers Stadion.
What competition is Waalwijk vs Cambuur part of?
Waalwijk vs Cambuur is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Waalwijk vs Cambuur?
Our statistical model gives Waalwijk a 45% chance of winning, Cambuur a 32% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Waalwijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waalwijk vs Cambuur?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Waalwijk and Cambuur will score (BTTS).
Will Waalwijk vs Cambuur have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Cambuur?
Record (2 meetings): Waalwijk 0W | Draws 1 | Cambuur 1W.
What form are Waalwijk and Cambuur in?
Waalwijk (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-D-W-L. Cambuur (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Waalwijk's attack at 1.05x the league average against Cambuur's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.70 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cambuur's attack versus Waalwijk's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Waalwijk Win
45%
2.23
24%
4.24
32%
3.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Waalwijk xG
Total xG
3.09
1.39
Cambuur xG
2.23
45%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
3.16
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
25%
4.03
18%
5.46
Win to Nil
11%
9.00
6%
17.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 6.3 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 10.7 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.1 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.2 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Waalwijk vs Cambuur?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Waalwijk and Cambuur expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Waalwijk and 1.39 for Cambuur, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Waalwijk vs Cambuur?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Waalwijk's recent record stands at 10W 14D 16L from 40 games, a 1.10 PPG return, with D-L-D-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Waalwijk, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Cambuur, meanwhile, have gone 12W 7D 21L across 40 games — 1.08 PPG, with D-W-L-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Cambuur, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Waalwijk on 1.10 PPG, Cambuur on 1.08. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Waalwijk have managed 7W 4D 9L from 20 games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cambuur's away record stands at 7W 4D 9L across 20 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Waalwijk are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Cambuur are on 1.42 scored and 1.98 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Waalwijk have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Cambuur in 65%.
Last 40 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waalwijk
Early Season
Cambuur
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Waalwijk and Cambuur in coming into this match?
Waalwijk have gone 10W 14D 16L in their last 40 games (1.10 PPG), while Cambuur have gone 12W 7D 21L in their last 40 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waalwijk at home or Cambuur away?
Waalwijk's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waalwijk at home: 1.25 PPG; Cambuur away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Sep 2022, when Waalwijk won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Waalwijk's record when hosting Cambuur specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Waalwijk
2
Draws
2
Cambuur
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Cambuur?
From 6 meetings on record, Waalwijk have won 2, Cambuur have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Waalwijk and Cambuur last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when Cambuur 1-1 Waalwijk.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Waalwijk 55%, Cambuur 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Waalwijk) and 65% (Cambuur). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 55% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Waalwijk have failed to score in 30% of games; Cambuur in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waalwijk home games / Cambuur away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Waalwijk play Cambuur?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Waalwijk's recent matches and 50% of Cambuur's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Waalwijk vs Cambuur usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Waalwijk's matches and 65% of Cambuur's.
Do Waalwijk and Cambuur tend to score early?
Waalwijk have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Cambuur in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Waalwijk run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Cambuur.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Waalwijk beat Cambuur 5-1 at Mandemakers Stadion, Regular Season - 7, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waalwijk 1.70 xG and Cambuur 1.39 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Waalwijk beat their projection by 3.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waalwijk attack 1.05 / defence 1.01 against Cambuur attack 1.02 / defence 0.99, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waalwijk 45% | Draw 24% | Cambuur 32%, with Waalwijk to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waalwijk 50%, Cambuur 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Waalwijk's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Cambuur's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Waalwijk 1.10 PPG, Cambuur 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Waalwijk win broke the near-deadlock. Waalwijk (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm. Cambuur (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.