Vitesse 0-3 Willem II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Vitesse at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Vitesse vs Willem II encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Willem II travel to GelreDome to take on Vitesse. The game is scheduled for Sunday 22 August 2021, 15:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Vitesse stand at 1W 0D 0L from 1 Eredivisie matches — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Vitesse have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Willem II have recorded 0W 0D 1L from 1 outings — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 4.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 4.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Willem II have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Vitesse are in the better shape of the two on current Eredivisie data — 3.00 PPG ahead (3.00 vs 0.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call (using overall form). Vitesse's 0% and Willem II's 0% both sit well below average — BTTS No is the strongly backed angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vitesse 1.29 xG and Willem II 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vitesse attack 0.963 / defence 1.150 | Willem II attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.165 / away 0.997. Data: 1 Vitesse games / 1 Willem II games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Vitesse 43% | Draw 30% | Willem II 27%. Fair-value odds: Vitesse 2.33 | Draw 3.33 | Willem II 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Vitesse are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vitesse offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.27 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vitesse vs Willem II | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: GelreDome • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Aug 2021, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vitesse 43% | Draw 30% | Willem II 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG Vitesse 1.29 / Willem II 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Vitesse attack 0.963 / def 1.150 | Willem II attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.165 / away 0.997 • Poisson stance: Vitesse (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Vitesse xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Willem II xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vitesse vs Willem II kick off?
Vitesse vs Willem II kicked off at 15:45 on Sunday 22 August 2021 at GelreDome.
What was the final score in Vitesse vs Willem II?
Vitesse 0 - 3 Willem II.
Where is Vitesse vs Willem II being played?
The match is being played at GelreDome.
What competition is Vitesse vs Willem II part of?
Vitesse vs Willem II is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Vitesse vs Willem II?
Our statistical model gives Vitesse a 43% chance of winning, Willem II a 27% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Vitesse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vitesse vs Willem II?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Vitesse and Willem II will score (BTTS).
Will Vitesse vs Willem II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vitesse and Willem II?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Vitesse and Willem II in?
Vitesse (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 W. Willem II (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 4.00 | L5 L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Vitesse's attack at 0.96x the league average against Willem II's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.29 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Willem II's attack versus Vitesse's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 1-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vitesse Win
43%
2.33
30%
3.35
27%
3.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Vitesse xG
Total xG
2.27
0.97
Willem II xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
3.67
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
27%
3.64
Win to Nil
16%
6.18
7%
13.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 10.1 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 13.1 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 8.4 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vitesse vs Willem II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Vitesse and Willem II expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Vitesse and 0.97 for Willem II, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Vitesse vs Willem II?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Vitesse come into this having played 1 games, going 1W 0D 0L for 3.00 points per game. Their last five reads W. It's still early in the season for Vitesse, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Willem II sit at 0.00 PPG from 1 outings (0W 0D 1L), a run that reads L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Willem II, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Vitesse carry the stronger recent form of the two, 3.00 PPG clear of Willem II — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
Vitesse are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; Willem II are on 0.00 scored and 4.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vitesse have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Willem II in 0%.
Defensively: Vitesse have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vitesse
Early Season
Willem II
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vitesse and Willem II in coming into this match?
Vitesse have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 games (3.00 PPG), while Willem II have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
Have Vitesse or Willem II been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vitesse have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, Willem II in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Willem II have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Aug 2021, when Willem II won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Vitesse's record when hosting Willem II specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Vitesse
0
Draws
4
Willem II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vitesse and Willem II?
From 4 meetings on record, Vitesse have won 0, Willem II have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Vitesse and Willem II last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when Willem II 3-0 Vitesse.
Who has won more matches between Vitesse and Willem II?
Willem II have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vitesse home games / Willem II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vitesse play Willem II?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Vitesse's recent matches and 0% of Willem II's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vitesse vs Willem II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Vitesse's recent games and 100% of Willem II's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vitesse and Willem II tend to score early?
Vitesse have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Willem II in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Willem II run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Vitesse.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Willem II beat Vitesse 0-3 at GelreDome, Regular Season - 2, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vitesse 1.29 xG and Willem II 0.97 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Vitesse fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Willem II outscored their 0.97 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vitesse attack 0.96 / defence 1.15 against Willem II attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Vitesse 43% | Draw 30% | Willem II 27%, with Vitesse to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Willem II win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vitesse 0%, Willem II 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Vitesse arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. Form was overturned, with Willem II winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Vitesse managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Willem II scored 3 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 4.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.