Vitesse 2-0 Cambuur – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Vitesse at 52% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Vitesse vs Cambuur encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
GelreDome plays host to Vitesse versus Cambuur in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off: Sunday 14 May 2023 at 11:15 UTC.
Current Form
Vitesse's overall Eredivisie record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L W W D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Vitesse have posted 3W 4D 3L at GelreDome — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Vitesse are significantly better at GelreDome than their overall form suggests.
Cambuur have collected 0.30 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 1W 0D 9L. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.80 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Cambuur's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Vitesse's favour (0.80 vs 0.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Across 3 previous meetings, Vitesse are the stronger side on paper — 3 victories to 0, with 0 draws in between.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.7 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 15 Oct 2022, ended 3–0 with Vitesse winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Vitesse and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 3 meetings, combined with an average of 3.7 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
Vitesse half-time and goal-timing data (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Cambuur half-time and goal-timing data (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vitesse 57% versus Cambuur 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vitesse 60% | Cambuur 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vitesse 1.50 xG and Cambuur 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vitesse attack 0.764 / defence 0.879 | Cambuur attack 0.714 / defence 1.233. League average goals — home 1.587 / away 1.249. Vitesse's attack strength of 0.764 is below the league average — the 1.50 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Cambuur bring a strong defensive rating of 1.233 — this is suppressing Vitesse's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 65 Vitesse games / 65 Cambuur games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vitesse 52% | Draw 31% | Cambuur 17%. Fair-value odds: Vitesse 1.92 | Draw 3.23 | Cambuur 5.88. Vitesse hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Vitesse at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Vitesse if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.28 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Vitesse 40% | Cambuur 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vitesse vs Cambuur | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: GelreDome • Kick-off: Sunday 14 May 2023, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vitesse 52% | Draw 31% | Cambuur 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 44% | xG Vitesse 1.50 / Cambuur 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Vitesse attack 0.764 / def 0.879 | Cambuur attack 0.714 / def 1.233 | league avg home 1.587 / away 1.249 • Poisson stance: Vitesse (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Vitesse xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Cambuur xG
44%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vitesse vs Cambuur kick off?
Vitesse vs Cambuur kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 14 May 2023 at GelreDome.
What was the final score in Vitesse vs Cambuur?
Vitesse 2 - 0 Cambuur.
Where is Vitesse vs Cambuur being played?
The match is being played at GelreDome.
What competition is Vitesse vs Cambuur part of?
Vitesse vs Cambuur is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Vitesse vs Cambuur?
Our statistical model gives Vitesse a 52% chance of winning, Cambuur a 17% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Vitesse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vitesse vs Cambuur?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Vitesse and Cambuur will score (BTTS).
Will Vitesse vs Cambuur have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vitesse and Cambuur?
Record (3 meetings): Vitesse 3W | Draws 0 | Cambuur 0W.
What form are Vitesse and Cambuur in?
Vitesse (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. Cambuur (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Vitesse's attacking strength (0.76x league average) is weighed against Cambuur's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.50. Flip it around — Cambuur's attack (0.71x) against Vitesse's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.78.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.6%), 0-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vitesse Win
52%
1.93
31%
3.27
17%
5.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Vitesse xG
Total xG
2.28
0.78
Cambuur xG
1.93
52%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
5.72
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
46%
2.19
22%
4.46
Win to Nil
24%
4.22
4%
25.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 8.0 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.3 | 12.0 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.0 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.7 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vitesse vs Cambuur?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Vitesse and Cambuur expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Vitesse and 0.78 for Cambuur, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Vitesse vs Cambuur?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 65 outings, Vitesse have picked up 1.26 PPG on a 22W 16D 27L record — L-W-W-D-L across the most recent five.
Cambuur's form line: 15W 10D 40L from 65 games, 0.85 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L.
Put side by side, Vitesse are the form team by 0.41 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cambuur.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Vitesse have posted 1.31 PPG from 32 outings (11W 9D 12L).
On the road, Cambuur have gone 8W 7D 17L from 32 away games — 0.97 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Vitesse are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Cambuur are on 1.14 scored and 2.05 conceded.
Last 65 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vitesse
Current Season
Cambuur
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vitesse and Cambuur in coming into this match?
Vitesse have gone 22W 16D 27L in their last 65 games (1.26 PPG), while Cambuur have gone 15W 10D 40L in their last 65 (0.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vitesse at home or Cambuur away?
Vitesse's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vitesse at home: 1.31 PPG; Cambuur away: 0.97 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Cambuur go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cambuur won 0-6 on 22 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vitesse have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Cambuur — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Vitesse
0
Draws
4
Cambuur
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vitesse and Cambuur?
From 8 meetings on record, Vitesse have won 4, Cambuur have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Vitesse and Cambuur last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when Cambuur 2-1 Vitesse.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Vitesse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vitesse 59%, Cambuur 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Vitesse and 59% for Cambuur. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cambuur in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vitesse home games / Cambuur away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vitesse play Cambuur?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Vitesse's recent matches and 47% of Cambuur's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vitesse vs Cambuur usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Vitesse's matches and 59% of Cambuur's.
Do Vitesse and Cambuur tend to score early?
Vitesse have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Cambuur in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Vitesse cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Cambuur.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vitesse beat Cambuur 2-0 at GelreDome, Regular Season - 32, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vitesse 1.50 xG and Cambuur 0.78 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vitesse attack 0.76 / defence 0.88 against Cambuur attack 0.71 / defence 1.23, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vitesse 52% | Draw 31% | Cambuur 17%, with Vitesse to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vitesse 60%, Cambuur 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vitesse's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Cambuur's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Vitesse arrived the stronger side — 1.26 PPG against 0.85. That form edge translated into the three points. Vitesse (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Cambuur (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.