Utrecht 1-1 Waalwijk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Utrecht at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Utrecht face Waalwijk.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Utrecht and Waalwijk meet at Stadion Galgenwaard in Eredivisie (matchday 16). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 16 December 2023 at 15:30 UK time.
Current Form
Utrecht's record over their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Last five: D D W D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Utrecht at home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Waalwijk have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Waalwijk's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 0D 8L (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Utrecht against 1.00 for Waalwijk. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Utrecht, 0 for Waalwijk and 3 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 13 May 2023, ended Utrecht 2–0 Waalwijk — a Utrecht win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Utrecht goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 49 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Waalwijk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 49 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Utrecht 53% versus Waalwijk 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Utrecht 55% | Waalwijk 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Utrecht 1.58 xG and Waalwijk 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Utrecht attack 0.915 / defence 1.129 | Waalwijk attack 0.685 / defence 1.026. League average goals — home 1.688 / away 1.503. Waalwijk's attack rating of 0.685 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.16. Data: built from Utrecht's last 49 games and Waalwijk's last 49.
Result probabilities: Utrecht 45% | Draw 28% | Waalwijk 26%. Fair-value odds: Utrecht 2.20 | Draw 3.53 | Waalwijk 3.81. Utrecht hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Utrecht at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Utrecht if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.75 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Utrecht's last 10 home games and Waalwijk's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Utrecht 70% (last 10 home games) | Waalwijk 20% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Utrecht vs Waalwijk | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 16 | Venue: Stadion Galgenwaard • Kick-off: Saturday 16 December 2023 at 15:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Utrecht 45% | Draw 28% | Waalwijk 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Utrecht 1.58 / Waalwijk 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Utrecht attack 0.915 / def 1.129 | Waalwijk attack 0.685 / def 1.026 | league avg home 1.688 / away 1.503 • Poisson stance: Utrecht (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Utrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Waalwijk xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Utrecht vs Waalwijk FAQs
What time does Utrecht vs Waalwijk kick off?
Utrecht vs Waalwijk kicked off at 15:30 UK time on Saturday 16 December 2023 at Stadion Galgenwaard.
What was the final score in Utrecht vs Waalwijk?
Utrecht 1 - 1 Waalwijk.
Where is Utrecht vs Waalwijk being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Galgenwaard.
What competition is Utrecht vs Waalwijk part of?
Utrecht vs Waalwijk is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 16) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Utrecht vs Waalwijk?
Our statistical model gives Utrecht a 45% chance of winning, Waalwijk a 26% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Utrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Utrecht vs Waalwijk?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Utrecht and Waalwijk will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Utrecht vs Waalwijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Utrecht's attack rating (0.92) and Waalwijk's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.58 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Waalwijk's attack (0.69x) against Utrecht's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from Utrecht's last 49 games and Waalwijk's last 49 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Utrecht Win
45%
2.20
28%
3.53
26%
3.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Utrecht xG
Total xG
2.75
1.16
Waalwijk xG
2.20
45%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
3.81
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
21%
4.87
Win to Nil
14%
7.03
5%
18.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 7.5 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 11.8 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.4 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Utrecht vs Waalwijk Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Utrecht vs Waalwijk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Utrecht and Waalwijk expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Utrecht and 1.16 for Waalwijk, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Utrecht vs Waalwijk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Utrecht's recent record stands at 20W 11D 18L from 49 games, a 1.45 PPG return, with D-D-W-D-W in the last five.
Waalwijk, meanwhile, have gone 15W 9D 25L across 49 games — 1.10 PPG, with L-W-D-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.45 PPG for Utrecht against 1.10 for Waalwijk. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Utrecht have managed 9W 7D 8L from their last 24 home games — 1.42 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Waalwijk's away record stands at 4W 5D 15L across their last 24 away games, a 0.71 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Utrecht come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Utrecht are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Waalwijk are on 1.31 scored and 1.86 conceded.
Last 49 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Utrecht
Blended
Waalwijk
Blended
Utrecht (Home) vs Waalwijk (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Utrecht
Blended
Waalwijk
Blended
❓ Utrecht vs Waalwijk Form FAQs
What form are Utrecht and Waalwijk in coming into this match?
Utrecht have gone 20W 11D 18L in their last 49 games (1.45 PPG), while Waalwijk have gone 15W 9D 25L in their last 49 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Utrecht at home or Waalwijk away?
Utrecht's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Utrecht at home: 1.42 PPG; Waalwijk away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 8 H2H matches between Utrecht and Waalwijk, the earliest from September 2021. All of them came in Eredivisie. The most recent in our data was on 25 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Utrecht have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Utrecht won Waalwijk 0-4 Utrecht on 25 Apr 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Utrecht have gone 2W 2D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Waalwijk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Utrecht
5
Draws
0
Waalwijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Utrecht vs Waalwijk H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Utrecht and Waalwijk?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Utrecht have won 3, Waalwijk have won 0, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Utrecht and Waalwijk last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 April 2025: Waalwijk 0-4 Utrecht.
Who has won more matches between Utrecht and Waalwijk?
Utrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Utrecht see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Utrecht 58%, Waalwijk 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Utrecht) and 58% (Waalwijk).
On the defensive side: Waalwijk in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Utrecht home games / Waalwijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Utrecht vs Waalwijk Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Utrecht and Waalwijk matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Utrecht's recent matches and 46% of Waalwijk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Utrecht and Waalwijk matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Utrecht's recent games and 58% of Waalwijk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Utrecht and Waalwijk matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 58% of Utrecht's recent matches and 62% of Waalwijk's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Utrecht and Waalwijk share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Galgenwaard, Regular Season - 16, as Utrecht and Waalwijk drew 1-1 in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Utrecht 1.58 xG and Waalwijk 1.16 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Utrecht attack 0.92 / defence 1.13 against Waalwijk attack 0.69 / defence 1.03, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Utrecht 45% | Draw 28% | Waalwijk 26%, with Utrecht to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Utrecht 55%, Waalwijk 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Utrecht's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Waalwijk's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Utrecht 1.45 PPG, Waalwijk 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Waalwijk (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.04 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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