Utrecht 3-1 Vitesse – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vitesse at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Utrecht vs Vitesse fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Europa League Play-offs - Semi-finals sees Vitesse travel to Stadion Galgenwaard to take on Utrecht. The game is scheduled for Thursday 19 May 2022, 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Utrecht stand at 1W 5D 4L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W D D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Utrecht's home record at Stadion Galgenwaard: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Vitesse — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, Vitesse have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Utrecht 0.80 PPG, Vitesse 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Utrecht register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Vitesse in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Utrecht, 1 for Vitesse and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Feb 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Utrecht trading profile (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Vitesse trading profile (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Utrecht 62% versus Vitesse 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Utrecht 59% | Vitesse 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Utrecht 1.20 xG and Vitesse 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Utrecht attack 0.903 / defence 1.123 | Vitesse attack 0.833 / defence 1.119. League average goals — home 1.183 / away 1.303. Data: 34 Utrecht games / 34 Vitesse games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Utrecht 36% | Draw 28% | Vitesse 37%. Fair-value odds: Utrecht 2.78 | Draw 3.57 | Vitesse 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Vitesse as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vitesse offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.41 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Utrecht 60% | Vitesse 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Utrecht vs Vitesse | Competition: Eredivisie, Europa League Play-offs - Semi-finals | Venue: Stadion Galgenwaard • Kick-off: Thursday 19 May 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Utrecht 36% | Draw 28% | Vitesse 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Utrecht 1.20 / Vitesse 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Utrecht attack 0.903 / def 1.123 | Vitesse attack 0.833 / def 1.119 | league avg home 1.183 / away 1.303 • Poisson stance: Vitesse (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Utrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Vitesse xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Utrecht vs Vitesse kick off?
Utrecht vs Vitesse kicked off at 20:00 on Thursday 19 May 2022 at Stadion Galgenwaard.
What was the final score in Utrecht vs Vitesse?
Utrecht 3 - 1 Vitesse.
Where is Utrecht vs Vitesse being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Galgenwaard.
What competition is Utrecht vs Vitesse part of?
Utrecht vs Vitesse is a Europa League Play-offs - Semi-finals fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Utrecht vs Vitesse?
Our statistical model gives Utrecht a 36% chance of winning, Vitesse a 37% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Vitesse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Utrecht vs Vitesse?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Utrecht and Vitesse will score (BTTS).
Will Utrecht vs Vitesse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Utrecht and Vitesse?
Record (2 meetings): Utrecht 0W | Draws 1 | Vitesse 1W.
What form are Utrecht and Vitesse in?
Utrecht (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-D-L. Vitesse (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Utrecht's attack at 0.90x the league average against Vitesse's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Vitesse's attack versus Utrecht's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 0-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vitesse Win
36%
2.81
28%
3.63
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Utrecht xG
Total xG
2.41
1.22
Vitesse xG
2.81
36%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
30%
3.38
30%
3.30
Win to Nil
11%
9.49
11%
8.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 10.9 | 6.6 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.0 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.8 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Utrecht vs Vitesse?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Utrecht and Vitesse expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Utrecht and 1.22 for Vitesse, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Utrecht vs Vitesse?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Utrecht's recent record stands at 12W 11D 11L from 34 games, a 1.38 PPG return, with L-W-D-D-L in the last five.
Vitesse, meanwhile, have gone 15W 6D 13L across 34 games — 1.50 PPG, with L-W-L-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Utrecht on 1.38 PPG, Vitesse on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Utrecht have managed 8W 6D 3L from 17 games — 1.76 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Vitesse's away record stands at 9W 3D 5L across 17 trips, a 1.76 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Utrecht are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Vitesse are on 1.24 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Utrecht have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 34 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Utrecht
Current Season
Vitesse
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Utrecht and Vitesse in coming into this match?
Utrecht have gone 12W 11D 11L in their last 34 games (1.38 PPG), while Vitesse have gone 15W 6D 13L in their last 34 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Utrecht at home or Vitesse away?
Utrecht's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Utrecht at home: 1.76 PPG; Vitesse away: 1.76 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Utrecht and Vitesse runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 May 2022, when Vitesse won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Utrecht's record when hosting Vitesse specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Utrecht
2
Draws
3
Vitesse
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Utrecht and Vitesse?
From 8 meetings on record, Utrecht have won 3, Vitesse have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Utrecht and Vitesse last play each other?
They last met on 5 May 2024, when Utrecht 1-0 Vitesse.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Vitesse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Utrecht 65%, Vitesse 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Utrecht) and 53% (Vitesse). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Vitesse in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Utrecht home games / Vitesse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Utrecht play Vitesse?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Utrecht's games and 47% of Vitesse's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Utrecht vs Vitesse usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Utrecht's matches and 53% of Vitesse's.
Do Utrecht and Vitesse tend to score early?
Utrecht have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Vitesse in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Utrecht cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Vitesse.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Utrecht beat Vitesse 3-1 at Stadion Galgenwaard, Europa League Play-offs - Semi-finals, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Utrecht 1.20 xG and Vitesse 1.22 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Utrecht beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Utrecht attack 0.90 / defence 1.12 against Vitesse attack 0.83 / defence 1.12, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Utrecht 36% | Draw 28% | Vitesse 37%, with Vitesse to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Utrecht win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Utrecht 59%, Vitesse 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Utrecht's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Vitesse's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Utrecht 1.38 PPG, Vitesse 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Utrecht win broke the near-deadlock. Utrecht (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.88 average — above their attacking norm. Vitesse (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.