Telstar 0-2 Groningen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Telstar at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Telstar vs Groningen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Telstar host Groningen at BUKO Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 4 April 2026 at 17:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Telstar stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at BUKO Stadion, Telstar have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Groningen have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Groningen's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Telstar at 1.20 PPG versus Groningen's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Telstar, 2 for Groningen and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2025, ended 0–2 with Groningen winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Telstar in-play tendencies (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Groningen in-play tendencies (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Telstar 55% versus Groningen 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Telstar 63% | Groningen 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Telstar 1.69 xG and Groningen 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Telstar attack 1.010 / defence 1.067 | Groningen attack 0.935 / defence 0.965. League average goals — home 1.738 / away 1.335. Data: 28 Telstar games / 62 Groningen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Telstar 45% | Draw 26% | Groningen 29%. Fair-value odds: Telstar 2.22 | Draw 3.85 | Groningen 3.45. Telstar hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.69 / 1.33) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Telstar are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Telstar offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.03 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Telstar 80% | Groningen 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Telstar vs Groningen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: BUKO Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Apr 2026, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Telstar 45% | Draw 26% | Groningen 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 61% | xG Telstar 1.69 / Groningen 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Telstar attack 1.010 / def 1.067 | Groningen attack 0.935 / def 0.965 | league avg home 1.738 / away 1.335 • Poisson stance: Telstar (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Telstar xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Groningen xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Telstar vs Groningen kick off?
Telstar vs Groningen kicked off at 17:45 on Saturday 4 April 2026 at BUKO Stadion.
What was the final score in Telstar vs Groningen?
Telstar 0 - 2 Groningen.
Where is Telstar vs Groningen being played?
The match is being played at BUKO Stadion.
What competition is Telstar vs Groningen part of?
Telstar vs Groningen is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Telstar vs Groningen?
Our statistical model gives Telstar a 45% chance of winning, Groningen a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Telstar the favourite.
Will both teams score in Telstar vs Groningen?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Telstar and Groningen will score (BTTS).
Will Telstar vs Groningen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Telstar and Groningen?
Record (3 meetings): Telstar 0W | Draws 1 | Groningen 2W.
What form are Telstar and Groningen in?
Telstar (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. Groningen (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Telstar's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Groningen's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.69. The same calculation in reverse, Groningen's attack versus Telstar's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Telstar Win
45%
2.24
26%
3.77
29%
3.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Telstar xG
Total xG
3.03
1.33
Groningen xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.77
26%
Draw
3.46
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
26%
3.79
18%
5.44
Win to Nil
12%
8.49
5%
18.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 6.5 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.0 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.3 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.2 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Telstar vs Groningen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Telstar and Groningen expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Telstar and 1.33 for Groningen, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Telstar vs Groningen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Telstar's recent record stands at 24W 16D 22L from 62 games, a 1.42 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-W in the last five.
Groningen, meanwhile, have gone 21W 14D 27L across 62 games — 1.24 PPG, with L-L-W-D-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Telstar on 1.42 PPG, Groningen on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Telstar have managed 15W 9D 7L from 31 games — 1.74 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Groningen's away record stands at 7W 5D 19L across 31 trips, a 0.84 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.24 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Groningen's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Telstar come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Telstar are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Groningen are on 1.29 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 62 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Telstar
Current Season
Groningen
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Telstar and Groningen in coming into this match?
Telstar have gone 24W 16D 22L in their last 62 games (1.42 PPG), while Groningen have gone 21W 14D 27L in their last 62 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Telstar at home or Groningen away?
Telstar's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Telstar at home: 1.74 PPG; Groningen away: 0.84 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2023. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Groningen go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Telstar's record when hosting Groningen specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Telstar
1
Draws
3
Groningen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Telstar and Groningen?
From 4 meetings on record, Telstar have won 0, Groningen have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Telstar and Groningen last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Telstar 0-2 Groningen.
Who has won more matches between Telstar and Groningen?
Groningen have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Telstar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Telstar 61%, Groningen 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for Telstar and 52% for Groningen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 55% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Telstar keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Groningen in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Telstar home games / Groningen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Telstar play Groningen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Telstar's games and 58% of Groningen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Telstar vs Groningen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Telstar's matches and 52% of Groningen's.
Do Telstar and Groningen tend to score early?
Telstar have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Groningen in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Groningen cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Telstar.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Groningen beat Telstar 0-2 at BUKO Stadion, Regular Season - 29, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Telstar 1.69 xG and Groningen 1.33 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Telstar fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Telstar attack 1.01 / defence 1.07 against Groningen attack 0.94 / defence 0.96, drawn from 28/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Telstar 45% | Draw 26% | Groningen 29%, with Telstar to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Groningen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Telstar 63%, Groningen 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Telstar's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Groningen's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Telstar 1.42 PPG, Groningen 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Groningen win broke the near-deadlock. Telstar (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.19 scoring average — below par going forward. Groningen (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.