Sparta Rotterdam 1-1 Waalwijk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Waalwijk at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sparta Rotterdam vs Waalwijk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 18 as Sparta Rotterdam welcome Waalwijk to Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel. Kick-off is set for Thursday 23 December 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Sparta Rotterdam — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sparta Rotterdam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sparta Rotterdam have posted 1W 4D 4L at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel — 0.78 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Waalwijk stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Waalwijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Waalwijk's away record: 0W 5D 3L from 8 road trips in Eredivisie this season (0.62 PPG). Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Sparta Rotterdam at 0.60 PPG versus Waalwijk's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Sparta Rotterdam, 1 for Waalwijk and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 23 Oct 2021, ended 0–1 with Waalwijk winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Sparta Rotterdam trading profile (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
Waalwijk trading profile (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sparta Rotterdam 47% versus Waalwijk 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sparta Rotterdam 41% | Waalwijk 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sparta Rotterdam 1.07 xG and Waalwijk 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.735 / defence 1.103 | Waalwijk attack 0.796 / defence 1.252. League average goals — home 1.168 / away 1.365. Sparta Rotterdam's attack strength of 0.735 is below the league average — the 1.07 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Waalwijk bring a strong defensive rating of 1.252 — this is suppressing Sparta Rotterdam's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 17 Sparta Rotterdam games / 17 Waalwijk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam 33% | Draw 28% | Waalwijk 39%. Fair-value odds: Sparta Rotterdam 3.03 | Draw 3.57 | Waalwijk 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Waalwijk as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Waalwijk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.27 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Sparta Rotterdam 56% | Waalwijk 75% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sparta Rotterdam vs Waalwijk | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel • Kick-off: Thursday 23 Dec 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam 33% | Draw 28% | Waalwijk 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Sparta Rotterdam 1.07 / Waalwijk 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.735 / def 1.103 | Waalwijk attack 0.796 / def 1.252 | league avg home 1.168 / away 1.365 • Poisson stance: Waalwijk (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Sparta Rotterdam xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Waalwijk xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sparta Rotterdam vs Waalwijk kick off?
Sparta Rotterdam vs Waalwijk kicked off at 20:00 on Thursday 23 December 2021 at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel.
What was the final score in Sparta Rotterdam vs Waalwijk?
Sparta Rotterdam 1 - 1 Waalwijk.
Where is Sparta Rotterdam vs Waalwijk being played?
The match is being played at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel.
What competition is Sparta Rotterdam vs Waalwijk part of?
Sparta Rotterdam vs Waalwijk is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Sparta Rotterdam vs Waalwijk?
Our statistical model gives Sparta Rotterdam a 33% chance of winning, Waalwijk a 39% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Waalwijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sparta Rotterdam vs Waalwijk?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Sparta Rotterdam and Waalwijk will score (BTTS).
Will Sparta Rotterdam vs Waalwijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Rotterdam and Waalwijk?
Record (1 meetings): Sparta Rotterdam 0W | Draws 0 | Waalwijk 1W.
What form are Sparta Rotterdam and Waalwijk in?
Sparta Rotterdam (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-D-D. Waalwijk (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sparta Rotterdam's attack at 0.73x the league average against Waalwijk's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 1.07 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Waalwijk's attack versus Sparta Rotterdam's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.0%), 0-1 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Waalwijk Win
33%
3.06
28%
3.51
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Sparta Rotterdam xG
Total xG
2.27
1.20
Waalwijk xG
3.06
33%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
30%
3.31
34%
2.93
Win to Nil
10%
10.14
13%
7.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 12.3 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.3 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.1 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sparta Rotterdam vs Waalwijk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Sparta Rotterdam and Waalwijk expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Sparta Rotterdam and 1.20 for Waalwijk, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Sparta Rotterdam vs Waalwijk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sparta Rotterdam's recent record stands at 2W 6D 9L from 17 games, a 0.71 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for Sparta Rotterdam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Waalwijk, meanwhile, have gone 3W 6D 8L across 17 games — 0.88 PPG, with L-D-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Waalwijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sparta Rotterdam on 0.71 PPG, Waalwijk on 0.88. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Sparta Rotterdam have managed 1W 3D 4L from 8 games — 0.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Waalwijk's away record stands at 0W 5D 3L across 8 trips, a 0.62 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Sparta Rotterdam are averaging 0.82 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Waalwijk are on 1.06 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Waalwijk in 65%.
Last 17 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sparta Rotterdam
Blended
Waalwijk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sparta Rotterdam and Waalwijk in coming into this match?
Sparta Rotterdam have gone 2W 6D 9L in their last 17 games (0.71 PPG), while Waalwijk have gone 3W 6D 8L in their last 17 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sparta Rotterdam at home or Waalwijk away?
Sparta Rotterdam's home record (0.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sparta Rotterdam at home: 0.75 PPG; Waalwijk away: 0.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Sparta Rotterdam's record when hosting Waalwijk specifically: 1W 3D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Sparta Rotterdam
5
Draws
1
Waalwijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Rotterdam and Waalwijk?
From 8 meetings on record, Sparta Rotterdam have won 2, Waalwijk have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Sparta Rotterdam and Waalwijk last play each other?
They last met on 19 January 2025, when Sparta Rotterdam 1-1 Waalwijk.
Who has won more matches between Sparta Rotterdam and Waalwijk?
Sparta Rotterdam have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sparta Rotterdam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sparta Rotterdam 50%, Waalwijk 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Sparta Rotterdam) and 62% (Waalwijk).
On the defensive side: Sparta Rotterdam have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sparta Rotterdam home games / Waalwijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sparta Rotterdam play Waalwijk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Sparta Rotterdam's games and 75% of Waalwijk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sparta Rotterdam vs Waalwijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Sparta Rotterdam's recent games and 62% of Waalwijk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sparta Rotterdam and Waalwijk tend to score early?
Sparta Rotterdam have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Waalwijk in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sparta Rotterdam and Waalwijk share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel, Regular Season - 18, as Sparta Rotterdam and Waalwijk drew 1-1 in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Rotterdam 1.07 xG and Waalwijk 1.20 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.73 / defence 1.10 against Waalwijk attack 0.80 / defence 1.25, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sparta Rotterdam 33% | Draw 28% | Waalwijk 39%, with Waalwijk to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Rotterdam 41%, Waalwijk 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Waalwijk's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sparta Rotterdam 0.71 PPG, Waalwijk 0.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.